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Trump may not make it to the primaries

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2 years ago

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BY KEITH NAUGHTON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR

The conventional wisdom has Donald Trump as either the man to beat for the Republican nomination or at least headed for a drawn-out fight to the finish with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But could Trump flame out and not even make it to the Iowa caucuses?

It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. In fact, it’s not far-fetched at all.

Trump has severe strategic problems and polling problems, not to mention his legal difficulties. They all add up to a very rough trajectory over the next several months. Everyone knows Trump hates to lose. When faced with losing, he either claims he was cheated, or quits.

A year from now, Trump might be far enough behind DeSantis that quitting will be the only way to avoid losing.

Bad numbers getting worse

Trump’s polling has been soft for more than a year, with the percentage of Republicans who want him to run consistently falling 20 points or more below his approval ratings. He has found it difficult to score above 50 percent on ballot tests against Republicans who aren’t even running yet.

And those numbers are getting worse.

Both YouGov and Morning Consult conducted post-election benchmarks, and Trump’s fortunes are falling across the board. Morning Consult has the best polling for Trump, but Trump’s favorable rating with Republicans edged below 80 percent. While 61 percent of Republicans still want Trump to run, 73 percent of independents don’t. Trump’s ballot test against DeSantis fell from a 48 percent to 26 percent advantage pre-midterm to a 47 percent to 33 percent advantage, down 8 points.

The YouGov poll is a disaster for Trump. In one week Trump fell from 81 percent approval to 77 percent. Far worse, Republicans who want him to run collapsed from 60 percent to just 47 percent. DeSantis holds a 46 percent to 39 percent advantage on the ballot test. YouGov polled all voters on a Trump-DeSantis ballot and every demographic preferred DeSantis, except Hispanics who were split evenly. Conservatives favored DeSantis 51 percent to 33 percent, a catastrophe for Trump.

Dull and directionless Donald

But Trump’s biggest problem going forward is he has nothing new to offer.

His campaign announcement showed a man just plodding forward. After months of teasing a “big announcement” where everyone knew he was getting in the race, the actual event was an anti-climax. Instead of a big show, America saw Trump stroll into a gaudy country club ballroom and drone his way through a desultory teleprompter speech.

He offered nothing really new or interesting. Outside of pivoting from blaming the Democrats for stealing the 2020 election to blaming China (watch for that to become a theme), Trump just rehashed old promises and complained about Biden. What’s the message? Trump had four years to build a wall and didn’t, so give him a second chance? Trump didn’t drain the swamp, but he will this time? And there was no follow-up. No big Iowa or New Hampshire rally. Trump spoke, and that was it.

It all adds up to a candidate without a message, without credibility and even — finally — bereft of showmanship.

Given all that, how does Trump gain votes or even stop the bleeding?

Pivots won’t work

That lackluster Mar-a-Lago speech may have been an attempt to “pivot” in response to the beating Trump’s candidates took in the midterms.

It’s possible Trump and his advisers realized that blaming Democrats for “stealing” the 2020 election simply doesn’t have any traction, and they cast around for a new bogeyman: China is universally unpopular — maybe they figured he could avoid walking back his “stop the steal” claims by blaming Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP. Actual evidence has never been a requirement for these guys. But Trump and his acolytes are too deep in the original argument for this new gambit to work.

Trump always resorts to the teleprompter when he thinks a “statesman-like” approach is required. Again, he and his aides likely took a cue from the midterms, where voters rejected candidates who jockeyed to be the most obnoxious person in the room. But Trump’s whole shtick is being loud and on the attack with no boundaries. Trump is simply too deep in that character, too one-dimensional and doesn’t have the political chops to pull off a “new Nixon” transformation. There won’t be a “new Trump.”

Topping it all off, Trump has become a loser. Major GOP donors have jumped ship. Republican governors were meeting just a few hours away in Orlando — not one saw fit to make it to Palm Beach, an unthinkable snub just a year ago. No GOP Senator attended; instead, they voted Trump’s bete noire, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), back in as their leader. Even daughter Ivanka was a no-show. Those who did attend were a collection of MAGA table scraps.

In the summer, I wrote about the political co-dependency of President Biden and Trump. That dynamic has shifted with Trump taking the heat for GOP underperformance and Biden energized by the Democrats’ relatively good year. Biden ascendant does not so much hurt Trump as it helps DeSantis. With the prospect of Biden as the Democratic nominee, at least for now, more likely than not, DeSantis looks a lot better for Republicans.

The contrast of a new, energetic candidate in DeSantis vs. the aging, gaffe-prone Biden hurts Trump. Better to have a 46-year-old (in 2024) winner against the creaky 82-year-old Biden than to have the only slightly less geriatric, tedious, losing Trump.

The YouGov poll showed that 54 percent of voters think Biden’s age impairs his ability to be president, while just 18 percent disagree. For independents, the totals are 51 percent to 8 percent. All demographics and both parties have at least a plurality who think Biden’s age is a problem.

In sum, nothing is working for Trump. He’s running on fumes.

Quitting is better than losing

If Trump is staring at defeat by next December, my guess is he will find a way to get out — perhaps to fight “unfair” prosecutions, maybe to deal with some fake health scare, or — less likely — deferring to his wife and family. Perhaps it’s a combination. There’s no way Trump will go begging for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire only to be rebuffed. He may be a bit delusional, but he can read the polls.

Too many pundits and politicos have been burned by Trump. The lazy and safe take is to be cautious about writing Trump’s political obituary. But political conditions have completely changed from the days when Trump was riding high, and the political cognoscenti engaged in more wishful thinking than real analysis.

He is offering nothing to reverse his decline.

Only his opponents’ self-destruction — whether DeSantis or Mike Pence — might change the game. It’s possible, but that means Trump’s future is at the mercy of others. And given his own self-destructive tendencies, it would take an epic series of meltdowns to prop Trump up.

Culled from the Hill

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

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Sylvester Turner Should Cancel His Bid for Late Jackson Lee’s Congressional Seat

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2 days ago

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July 25, 2024

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“Running an election alongside his mentees might be seen as a selfish but insatiable appetite for office.“ —Anthony Ogbo

Former Mayor Sylvester Turner has expressed serious interest in running for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s congressional seat. In an interview with KHOU, Turner stated that the passing of his friend (Sheila) has prompted him to consider coming out of retirement for this critical opportunity. A decision from the former mayor is expected in the coming days.

74-year Jackson Lee, a prominent figure in Houston politics, passed away last week after revealing her battle with pancreatic cancer earlier this year. She had represented the 18th Congressional District since 1995, earning a reputation for her unwavering dedication and frequent presence at community events within the district.

Among other declared and potential Democratic candidates vying for Jackson Lee’s seat are state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, Houston Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and Amanda Edwards, who placed second in the district’s original primary.

The news of Turner’s potential consideration for a congressional position has sparked surprise among Houstonians, particularly his community supporters. However, there is a noticeable silence surrounding the topic, with many engaging in hushed conversations and speculation. The mere idea of transitioning to a fast-paced congressional role raises concerns about the potential impact on the community and his supporters, who are unsure about his physical well-being.

At 69 years old, Turner is a seasoned attorney, activist, and politician who recently concluded a tumultuous 8-year term in office. But his departure in January was marked by health concerns. He had battled bone cancer in his jaw, undergoing surgery and six weeks of radiation therapy in 2022. This ailment not only forced him to cancel an official trip to France but also led to his absence from City Council meetings for several weeks.

There is currently a discussion surrounding the potential for Turner to assume a new role in Congress because his health issues cast doubt on his capacity to fulfill the responsibilities of this position. This has elicited a range of emotions among observers, with some expressing concern about his ability to effectively manage the demands of the role. Despite his experience and dedication to public service, concerns linger about his physical stability and capacity, to effectively represent constituents in a more demanding political arena.

Turner’s consideration to vie for Sheila Jackson Lee’s congressional seat also reveals a poignant irony. Jackson Lee tragically passed away while juggling the demands of her congressional responsibilities and battling a deadly form of cancer. Despite undergoing treatment for pancreatic cancer, she tirelessly worked to support her constituents during the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl. For over two weeks, Jackson Lee stood up for the thousands of individuals in her district who were left vulnerable without power.

Some members of the community believed that Jackson-Lee should have retired after her cancer diagnosis. However, her passing could serve as a lesson to other long-serving public officials who would neglect their health in pursuit of power and public service.

The impact of politics on physical, psychological, and social health is a reality that cannot be denied. Recently, President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race after facing intense pressure, speculation, and internal turmoil within his own Democratic Party. Concerns about his health, both physical and cognitive, have been a constant focus in recent weeks, especially his lackluster performance at the June 27 presidential debate. This situation highlights the toll that politics can take on individuals at the highest levels of government.

Public officials need to prioritize their health and well-being, as neglecting it can have serious consequences. Serving the public is a noble calling, but it should not come at the expense of one’s own health. Jackson-Lee’s passing should remind all public servants of the importance of retirement. It serves as a sobering reminder that life is precious and unpredictable and that it is essential to prioritize self-care and well-being to enjoy a fulfilling retirement after years of dedicated service.

Ultimately, Jackson-Lee’s passing should inspire Turner to take proactive steps toward sustaining his happy and healthy retirement. He should reconsider his bid for Jackson Lee’s Congressional Seat. At this point in his career, it may be more beneficial for him to contemplate retirement and offer his support to other candidates who have long been supporters of his campaign during his political career. Running an election alongside those mentees might be seen as a selfish but insatiable appetite for office.

♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Professor Anthony Obi Ogbo,PhD, is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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Was Trump’s Assassin unstoppable because he was White?

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1 week ago

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July 17, 2024

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“It is worth considering whether Trump’s assassin would have been treated differently if he were Black.“ —Anthony Ogbo

On Saturday, July 13, a gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, armed with an AR-15 assault rifle, brazenly carried his killer weapon to the rooftop from a short distance to the podium where the former President, Donald Trump was addressing a political rally. Unchallenged, he fired up to eight shots toward the stage, with one shot hitting Trump’s right ear. Tragically, one rally-goer died, and two others were critically injured before the assailant was taken down by a Secret Service sniper. The shooter was identified as white.

Just a few days later, on Tuesday, five Columbus police officers in Milwaukee shot and killed a homeless man outside the security perimeter of the Republican convention. The man was waving knives at others, and residents reported that he had been living in a tent. To be precise, this incident took place about 1 mile from the convention in a residential neighborhood that included a large homeless encampment. The homeless man was Black.

Since the incident involving Trump, investigators have been diligently working to determine the cause of the attack and prevent future occurrences. They have explored various theories and possibilities as they come to terms with how the individual was able to conveniently carry out such a heinous act.

Attendees at the event had alerted local police about the shooter heading towards the rooftop. However, authorities failed to communicate this information to security personnel, potentially jeopardizing the safety of the former President. A Homeland Security law enforcement memo revealed that the shooter had recently purchased ammunition, received hazardous material shipments, and had improvised explosive devices in his car and home.

It was also reported that before the would-be assassin aimed at Trump, attendees reported they saw him pacing and behaving strangely. Crooks was not shot, rather, local police officers began pursuing him on foot. During the pursuit, the U.S. official said, local police told the Secret Service they were looking for a suspicious person near the event. Furthermore, the U.S. official said the Secret Service was told of a suspicious person before local police discovered Crooks on the roof of a nearby glass research company’s building. That discovery occurred shortly before Crooks opened fire, according to law enforcement sources.

The timing of these events raises concerns about whether additional precautions could have been implemented to prevent Crook’s actions. It is worth considering whether this assassin would have been treated differently if he had been Black. Comparing both events can provide insight into potential biases and disparities in treatment based on race.

The fact that the suspect in Trump’s assassination attempt in Pennsylvania was White and was handled with such reluctance and oversight, while the Black homeless man in Milwaukee was shot and killed instantly by police, highlights the disparities in how individuals of different races are treated by law enforcement. This raises questions about whether race played a role in how both incidents were handled and whether there are underlying biases that need to be addressed within the criminal justice system.

Authorities claimed that the fatal shooting in Milwaukee was not connected to the convention. However, this incident sheds light on larger concerns regarding the use of external law enforcement for events such as conventions. Furthermore, it is important to examine these cases closely and consider how systemic racism may be influencing outcomes in similar situations. By acknowledging these disparities, we can work towards creating a more just and equitable society for all individuals, regardless of their race.

Despite efforts to address systemic racism and improve police-community relations, recent events such as the killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Daunte Wright have highlighted the ongoing challenges and injustices faced by Black Americans at the hands of law enforcement. These incidents serve as a stark reminder that there is still much work to be done to achieve true equality and justice for all individuals, regardless of race. It is clear that while progress has been made in some areas, the reality on the ground continues to show that racial disparities and police brutality remain pervasive issues in America.

♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Professor Anthony Obi Ogbo,PhD, is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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Rivers State crisis: Expel Wike, FCT Minister from PDP now

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4 weeks ago

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June 29, 2024

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The internal squabbles and power tussle in PDP because of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election and who controls once the biggest political party in the history of Africa has boxed the party into a struggling state of suffocation and Armageddon.
 
While APC as a ruling party has continued to carry out its role of trying to suffocate PDP to a total submission, PDP on its own has failed woefully as a major opposition party.
 
There are many different groups and forces within the party trying to firmly dictate what happens, and some of them are very vicious. However, two groups led by Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike are the most powerful amongst them. But one thing they have in common is that they are all scheming for their selfish interests. 

 
For Wike, he has not hidden his interest to be the president of Nigeria especially after becoming the governor of Rivers State. His nursed desire of actually becoming president was propelled after his first ministerial appointment as education minister. All that have followed his political growth can testify that after that appointment he has tenaciously pursued his presidential vision calculatedly with all power and tools he could influence. The tenacity he attaches or his exhibition in pursuit of this dream drives down the impression of one who gives no fig, and this attitude appears to have been what led to his clash with Rotimi Amaechi (former Rivers State Governor), his predecessor. Amaechi who never knew that Wike had conceived the idea of occupying the same position he was scheming for in Aso Rock has in recent times confessed publicly in many occasions his regrets of having recommended him to be made a minister. Therefore, statistically, their political war of who controls Rivers State seemed anchored fundamentally on their selfish interests. It appeared like they wanted to have a very strong political and financial base basically to dictate things in their envisaged presidential election campaigns to their personal advantages. This interest was the genesis of their political enmity that led to the political militarization of Rivers State at that time. A similar scenario is again playing out between the current governor Similaye Fubara and Wike. The only difference for now is that Fubara has not shown any interest to occupy the number one position in Aso Rock like Wike.
 
Actions and unfolding events over the years seem to have continued to portray Wike as someone who is very desperate with his presidential ambition. He seems ready for any political adventure and can step on any toe as long as in his calculation it will bring him close to his desired destination of occupying the number one position in Aso Rock. That could be why it appears he wants to control every important political structure in Rivers State regardless of other stakeholders stand in the state, particularly Governor Fubara. The role he played in supporting President Tinubu of APC against his own party candidate Atiku Abubakar of PDP during the last presidential election was a huge betrayal and anti–party that called for a drastic punishment.
 
Wike succeeded in winning the political war against Amaechi in 2015 and taking total political control of Rivers State after the 2019 elections, he then critically considered the next thing that could be a hinderance to his presidential ambition in 2023. In his calculation, presumably, since PDP’s constitution does not allow the northern or southern part to produce the chairman of the party and at the same time the presidential candidate, the continuous stay of Prince Uche Secondus from south-south like himself as the national chairman of the party would be the obstacle or the biggest hinderance to his presidential aspiration. In his well thought out plan he smartly led the campaign of “Secondus must go” hiding under equity, and switched all his energy and resources in making sure that a northerner becomes the national chairman. The game was to pave way solely for the south to produce the presidential candidate, and he had believedconvincingly that he would be the one to emerge.
 
Having succeeded in influencing so much in installing a northerner as PDP’s chairman, Wike started the advocacy of the presidential candidate to be zoned to the south as stipulated by PDP’s constitution. As expected, it was obliged without any uproar. For the sake of equity, unity and inclusiveness some PDP stakeholders reasonably thought it wise that the zoning of the party’s ticket to the south should be exclusively reserved for the south-east. They argued that since the south-west and south-south had all produced presidents, it would be fair enough to also support the people of the south-east to produce a president. Wike who wielded enormous influence in PDP at that time refused the noble idea, because he wanted to be president. Consequently, party members from the north jettisoned zoning, and the party’s presidential candidate was then thrown open. This scheming and other political shameful dealings that allegedly took place in the party forced people like Peter Obi out of PDP.
 
During the presidential primary of PDP in Abuja Nwike was taught the political lessons of his life as he failed to the combined punches of political alliances and experiences’ of Atiku Abubakar. His later actions showed that he was disappointed and bitter from the outcome of the results, because he worked assiduously against the interest of his own party and Atiku Abubakar in favour of APC and Tinubu. In a normal working society and in a political party he ought to have been expelled or heavily sanctioned for such a grievous deed. But PDP is what it is, like Nigeria, many of them are the same in character. Some of them came from APC and may be planning to leave PDP and that is why they are silent in the face of the obvious spat, arrogance and insults from Wike.
 
Wike is presently fighting the governor of Rivers State who was elected under the platform of PDP. He is currently serving as a minister under APC, but it seems he is using the position against the interest of his acclaimed own party, yet members of PDP keep mute in a better described attitude of self-hatred and despair. After destroying the party he is likely going to dump PDP for another party like his loyalist in the State Assembly have been alleged to have done. So, his ambition is paramount and nothing else matters to him.
 
Wike wants to be the “Jagaban” of Rivers State politics and will not back down until he gets to his destination unless he is forcefully stopped by being knocked down politically. Remember, in his quest to actualize his presidential ambition, Amaechi and Secondus have all fallen victims. But the earlier Wike realizes that Fubara is a sitting governor and as such the landlord of Rivers State, the better for him. But Fubara mustseriously activate those powers he has as a landlord now or he goes down in history as an impeached governor. His moves to probe Wike’s administration is one of those commendable landlord’s moves, and his swearing in of the Caretaker Committee Chairmen of the local governments was a well targeted uppercut of a landlord. PDP must follow the same steps now, by expelling, suspending, or at least forcingWike to retreat his dangerous steps against Fubara and the interests of PDP.
 
Will Fubara suffer the same fate like Amaechi and Secondus in the hands of Wike? Will Wike be successful in his alleged indirect influence of impeaching Fubara? Or will Fubara succeed in finding Wike culpable of misappropriation of Rivers fund as he probes his administration? I see Amaechi coming back to PDP and giving Fubara the supports he needs, because all seems not well with him and Tinubu in APC. Time will unveil. But one thing is certain in this political war, as 2027 draws near, the reality of PDP members’ silence will forcefully confront them and regrettably compel them to face the injurious consequences of their unceasing lukewarm attitudes to Wike’s actions. Anyone who thinks that Wike as the FCT Minister under this administration will work against the interest of Tinubu or APC in favor of PDP or any PDP candidate is a political toddler – a neophyte. Expel him from PDP now before he does more damages.

♦ Uzoma Ahamefule, a refined African traditionalist and a patriotic citizen writes from Vienna, Austria. WhatsApp: +436607369050; Email Contact Uzoma >>>>

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