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Trump may not make it to the primaries

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BY KEITH NAUGHTON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR

The conventional wisdom has Donald Trump as either the man to beat for the Republican nomination or at least headed for a drawn-out fight to the finish with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But could Trump flame out and not even make it to the Iowa caucuses?

It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. In fact, it’s not far-fetched at all.

Trump has severe strategic problems and polling problems, not to mention his legal difficulties. They all add up to a very rough trajectory over the next several months. Everyone knows Trump hates to lose. When faced with losing, he either claims he was cheated, or quits.

A year from now, Trump might be far enough behind DeSantis that quitting will be the only way to avoid losing.

Bad numbers getting worse

Trump’s polling has been soft for more than a year, with the percentage of Republicans who want him to run consistently falling 20 points or more below his approval ratings. He has found it difficult to score above 50 percent on ballot tests against Republicans who aren’t even running yet.

And those numbers are getting worse.

Both YouGov and Morning Consult conducted post-election benchmarks, and Trump’s fortunes are falling across the board. Morning Consult has the best polling for Trump, but Trump’s favorable rating with Republicans edged below 80 percent. While 61 percent of Republicans still want Trump to run, 73 percent of independents don’t. Trump’s ballot test against DeSantis fell from a 48 percent to 26 percent advantage pre-midterm to a 47 percent to 33 percent advantage, down 8 points.

The YouGov poll is a disaster for Trump. In one week Trump fell from 81 percent approval to 77 percent. Far worse, Republicans who want him to run collapsed from 60 percent to just 47 percent. DeSantis holds a 46 percent to 39 percent advantage on the ballot test. YouGov polled all voters on a Trump-DeSantis ballot and every demographic preferred DeSantis, except Hispanics who were split evenly. Conservatives favored DeSantis 51 percent to 33 percent, a catastrophe for Trump.

Dull and directionless Donald

But Trump’s biggest problem going forward is he has nothing new to offer.

His campaign announcement showed a man just plodding forward. After months of teasing a “big announcement” where everyone knew he was getting in the race, the actual event was an anti-climax. Instead of a big show, America saw Trump stroll into a gaudy country club ballroom and drone his way through a desultory teleprompter speech.

He offered nothing really new or interesting. Outside of pivoting from blaming the Democrats for stealing the 2020 election to blaming China (watch for that to become a theme), Trump just rehashed old promises and complained about Biden. What’s the message? Trump had four years to build a wall and didn’t, so give him a second chance? Trump didn’t drain the swamp, but he will this time? And there was no follow-up. No big Iowa or New Hampshire rally. Trump spoke, and that was it.

It all adds up to a candidate without a message, without credibility and even — finally — bereft of showmanship.

Given all that, how does Trump gain votes or even stop the bleeding?

Pivots won’t work

That lackluster Mar-a-Lago speech may have been an attempt to “pivot” in response to the beating Trump’s candidates took in the midterms.

It’s possible Trump and his advisers realized that blaming Democrats for “stealing” the 2020 election simply doesn’t have any traction, and they cast around for a new bogeyman: China is universally unpopular — maybe they figured he could avoid walking back his “stop the steal” claims by blaming Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP. Actual evidence has never been a requirement for these guys. But Trump and his acolytes are too deep in the original argument for this new gambit to work.

Trump always resorts to the teleprompter when he thinks a “statesman-like” approach is required. Again, he and his aides likely took a cue from the midterms, where voters rejected candidates who jockeyed to be the most obnoxious person in the room. But Trump’s whole shtick is being loud and on the attack with no boundaries. Trump is simply too deep in that character, too one-dimensional and doesn’t have the political chops to pull off a “new Nixon” transformation. There won’t be a “new Trump.”

Topping it all off, Trump has become a loser. Major GOP donors have jumped ship. Republican governors were meeting just a few hours away in Orlando — not one saw fit to make it to Palm Beach, an unthinkable snub just a year ago. No GOP Senator attended; instead, they voted Trump’s bete noireMitch McConnell (R-Ky.), back in as their leader. Even daughter Ivanka was a no-show. Those who did attend were a collection of MAGA table scraps.

In the summer, I wrote about the political co-dependency of President Biden and Trump. That dynamic has shifted with Trump taking the heat for GOP underperformance and Biden energized by the Democrats’ relatively good year. Biden ascendant does not so much hurt Trump as it helps DeSantis. With the prospect of Biden as the Democratic nominee, at least for now, more likely than not, DeSantis looks a lot better for Republicans.

The contrast of a new, energetic candidate in DeSantis vs. the aging, gaffe-prone Biden hurts Trump. Better to have a 46-year-old (in 2024) winner against the creaky 82-year-old Biden than to have the only slightly less geriatric, tedious, losing Trump.

The YouGov poll showed that 54 percent of voters think Biden’s age impairs his ability to be president, while just 18 percent disagree. For independents, the totals are 51 percent to 8 percent. All demographics and both parties have at least a plurality who think Biden’s age is a problem.

In sum, nothing is working for Trump. He’s running on fumes.

Quitting is better than losing

If Trump is staring at defeat by next December, my guess is he will find a way to get out — perhaps to fight “unfair” prosecutions, maybe to deal with some fake health scare, or — less likely — deferring to his wife and family. Perhaps it’s a combination. There’s no way Trump will go begging for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire only to be rebuffed. He may be a bit delusional, but he can read the polls.

Too many pundits and politicos have been burned by Trump. The lazy and safe take is to be cautious about writing Trump’s political obituary. But political conditions have completely changed from the days when Trump was riding high, and the political cognoscenti engaged in more wishful thinking than real analysis.

He is offering nothing to reverse his decline.

Only his opponents’ self-destruction — whether DeSantis or Mike Pence — might change the game. It’s possible, but that means Trump’s future is at the mercy of others. And given his own self-destructive tendencies, it would take an epic series of meltdowns to prop Trump up.

Culled from the Hill

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

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Emerging Regulatory Challenges in Cybersecurity: Navigating a Global, Technological Landscape

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The intersection of technology, globalization, and increased connectivity has given rise to a new frontier of regulatory challenges in cybersecurity. As the digital landscape rapidly evolves, organizations and governments are grappling with the complexities of securing data, protecting critical infrastructure, and navigating the intricacies of international cooperation. This has given rise to emerging regulatory challenges that demand innovative solutions to ensure the robustness and resilience of cybersecurity measures. In this context, it is essential to understand and address these challenges as they have wide-ranging implications for privacy, innovation, and the global economy.

Emerging regulatory challenges in cybersecurity are becoming more complex as technology advances and the threat landscape continues to evolve. It is crucial for regulations to keep pace with the rapid changes in cybersecurity to effectively protect individuals, organizations, and critical infrastructure from cyber threats.

One of the key challenges in cybersecurity regulation is the global nature of cyber threats. Cyber attacks do not respect national boundaries, and regulations must be able to address this cross-border nature of cybercrime. This requires international cooperation and coordination to establish consistent standards and protocols for cybersecurity.

Another challenge is the increasing interconnectedness of devices and systems, known as the Internet of Things (IoT). This raises concerns about the security and privacy of personal data as well as the potential for widespread disruptions if these systems are compromised. Regulatory frameworks need to adapt to these new challenges and ensure that IoT devices and systems are secure by design.

Additionally, the rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and quantum computing present regulatory challenges in terms of ensuring that these technologies are used responsibly and ethically in the context of cybersecurity.

Furthermore, the need for data protection and privacy regulations has become more prominent with the increasing frequency of data breaches and the proliferation of personal and sensitive information online. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union are setting a precedent for data privacy regulations around the world.

Essentially, emerging regulatory challenges in cybersecurity require a proactive and collaborative approach from governments, regulatory bodies, and industry stakeholders to develop comprehensive and adaptable frameworks that can effectively mitigate evolving cyber threats. It is essential to strike a balance between effective cybersecurity measures and enabling the innovation and growth of digital technologies.

In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, emerging regulatory challenges in cybersecurity are presenting new obstacles for organizations and governments. These challenges stem from the increasing complexity of cyber threats, as well as the need to balance security with privacy, innovation, and international cooperation. Several examples exemplify these evolving challenges:

  1. Global Data Protection Regulations: With the implementation of regulations such as the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and California’s Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), organizations are encountering a web of complex compliance requirements. As data flows across international borders, companies must navigate varying data protection laws, leading to a need for a cohesive, global approach to data security.
  2. Supply Chain Security: As organizations embrace interconnected supply chains and third-party services, they are exposed to new security risks. Regulatory frameworks are struggling to keep pace with the complexities of securing a network of vendors and partners from potential cyber threats, including espionage, sabotage, or data breaches.
  3. IoT and Critical Infrastructure Protection: The proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) devices introduces new regulatory challenges, especially in the context of critical infrastructure protection. Regulation must adapt to ensure the secure integration of these devices in sectors such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, where the potential for large-scale disruptions due to cyber-attacks is a significant concern.
  4. International Cooperation and Cybersecurity Standards: In an era of globalized cyber threats, the necessity for international coordination and standardization of cybersecurity practices is crucial. However, achieving consensus and harmonizing diverse regulatory approaches across countries poses significant regulatory challenges.

Such core concentration entails navigating emerging regulatory challenges in cybersecurity and requires the development of flexible, adaptive regulatory frameworks that address the complexities of a dynamic, global, and technological landscape. This necessitates active engagement from stakeholders across various sectors to collectively develop robust, effective regulatory solutions.

In conclusion, the emerging regulatory challenges in cybersecurity represent a pivotal juncture in the ongoing quest to secure our digital infrastructures. Tackling these challenges demands a multidimensional approach, wherein stakeholders from governments, industries, and international bodies work collaboratively to develop flexible regulatory frameworks that adapt to the evolving threat landscape. Moreover, the pursuit of effective regulatory solutions should prioritize the harmonization of diverse approaches, international cooperation, and the promotion of best practices. By navigating these challenges with agility and foresight, we can foster a cybersecurity ecosystem that not only safeguards critical assets but also nurtures innovation, respects privacy, and fortifies the digital economy against adversarial threats.

♦ Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and holds a Chartered Manager Status, and by extension, Chartered Fellow (CMgr FCMI) by the highly Reputable Royal Chartered Management Institute.

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Unlocking Africa’s Trade Potential: Harnessing the Power of AI

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In recent years, the global community has witnessed significant advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to revolutionize various industries. As the African continent endeavours to unleash its full economic potential, AI has emerged as a critical tool for empowering trade and fostering growth. By harnessing the power of AI, Africa can significantly enhance its trade capabilities, foster economic development, and propel itself to the forefront of global commerce.

AI has the potential to revolutionize trade in Africa in various ways, unlocking its economic potential. Here are some examples and data to support this:

  1. Market analysis:

Market analysis is a critical component of trade and commerce, and AI-powered tools have rapidly emerged as a game-changer in this domain. These technologies can sift through vast volumes of data to discern market trends, consumer preferences, and demand patterns, providing valuable insights for businesses. Kenya’s Twiga Foods serves as a compelling example of the transformative impact of AI in market analysis. By leveraging AI algorithms, Twiga Foods can effectively analyze purchasing patterns and forecast market demand, thereby optimizing their supply chain management and minimizing food wastage. This not only enhances operational efficiency but also contributes to sustainable business practices.

The expected growth of AI investment in the Middle East and Africa further underscores the significance of AI for market and customer analysis. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), spending on AI systems in the Middle East and Africa region is projected to reach $530 million by 2022. The allocation of substantial investments towards AI initiatives for market and customer analysis signifies the increasing recognition of the potential benefits that AI can bring to businesses operating in these regions. As a result, the integration of AI tools for market analysis is poised to become a widespread practice among enterprises, offering a competitive edge and propelling growth in the trade sector.

  1. Supply chain optimization:

Supply chain optimization is a critical focus area for businesses, and AI has proven to be a powerful tool in achieving this goal. By leveraging AI algorithms, companies can accurately predict demand, mitigate stockouts, and optimize inventory levels, thereby streamlining the entire supply chain process. A concrete example of the transformative impact of AI in supply chain optimization can be seen in the operations of Peermont Hotels in South Africa. Through the implementation of AI-driven technologies, Peermont Hotels has been able to enhance its procurement processes, leading to significant cost savings and marked improvements in supply chain management efficiency.

The potential for AI to revolutionize supply chain operations is underscored by a report from Accenture, which highlights the substantial economic impact that AI could have on the African economy. The report suggests that AI has the potential to contribute up to $215 billion to the region’s economy over the next decade, with supply chain and manufacturing standing out as key sectors that could benefit extensively from AI integration. This forecast reflects the immense potential for AI to drive innovation, enhance productivity, and deliver tangible economic gains across various industries within the African continent. As such, the adoption of AI for supply chain optimization is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of business logistics and operations in Africa.

  1. Financial services:

Financial services stand to undergo a significant transformation with the integration of AI-powered solutions, offering a multitude of benefits for both businesses and consumers. One notable area where AI is making a substantial impact is in the realm of credit scoring and risk assessment. By harnessing advanced algorithms and data analytics, AI-powered financial services are revolutionizing the traditional credit evaluation process, ensuring more efficient and accurate assessments. Furthermore, AI is enabling the provision of personalized financial advice, facilitating improved access to finance for businesses and individuals alike.

A compelling illustration of the transformative potential of AI in the financial sector can be witnessed in Nigeria, where Carbon has successfully leveraged AI to offer instant loans to individuals and small businesses based on their digital footprint. This innovative approach not only streamlines the lending process but also promotes financial inclusion by providing swift and convenient access to credit for previously underserved segments of the population.

The profound impact of AI on the African economy is underscored by a report from the Boston Consulting Group, which highlights the substantial contribution that AI could make to the region’s economy. According to the report, AI has the potential to contribute up to $1.2 trillion to the African economy by 2035, with the financial services sector positioned to experience a particularly significant impact. This forecast reflects the immense potential for AI to drive innovation, enhance efficiency, and foster growth within the financial services industry, ultimately leading to broader economic benefits for the African continent as a whole. Thus, the integration of AI-powered solutions in the financial sector holds immense promise for revolutionizing the landscape of financial services in Africa.

  1. Trade facilitation:

Trade facilitation, characterized by the seamless movement of goods and services across borders, stands to experience a significant transformation due to the integration of AI technologies. One pivotal aspect where AI can revolutionize trade processes is by automating the often complex and time-consuming documentation, customs procedures, and logistics involved in international trade. Through advanced algorithms and data analysis, AI facilitates the optimization of these processes, effectively reducing delays and improving efficiency.

A noteworthy example of AI’s impact on trade facilitation can be observed in the African Development Bank’s implementation of “Boost Africa,” an AI-powered platform designed to streamline trade finance for businesses. By leveraging AI, this platform has successfully reduced administrative burdens and enhanced trade efficiency, ultimately facilitating increased access to trade finance for businesses across the African continent.

The potential of AI to significantly enhance trade facilitation in Africa is echoed in research conducted by McKinsey, which projects that AI technologies could potentially contribute $300-450 billion to African GDP by 2030. This substantial economic impact underscores the pivotal role of trade facilitation as one of the critical areas for AI-driven transformation and economic growth across the African continent. Consequently, the integration of AI in trade facilitation holds immense promise for fostering greater efficiency, reducing barriers, and driving economic development within the global trade landscape.

To fully leverage the transformative potential of AI in trade, Africa should prioritize strategic investments in AI infrastructure, which encompasses the development and deployment of advanced technological frameworks and systems that can effectively support AI-driven trade facilitation. Additionally, there is a critical need to prioritize building AI expertise by investing in digital skills development programs, training initiatives, and educational curriculums focused on AI technologies. This concerted effort can help cultivate a skilled workforce equipped to harness AI to optimize trade processes, thereby promoting sustainable economic growth and development.

Furthermore, fostering partnerships with international AI companies and organizations can significantly enhance Africa’s access to cutting-edge AI solutions and expertise. Collaborative initiatives, joint ventures, and technology transfer partnerships with established global players in the AI industry can facilitate knowledge exchange, technology transfer, and capacity building, ultimately augmenting Africa’s AI capabilities and competitiveness in the international trade arena.

In addition to infrastructure development and knowledge empowerment, creating supportive policies that effectively align with the dynamic nature of AI technologies is imperative. These inclusive policies should address regulatory frameworks, data privacy, intellectual property rights, and ethical considerations related to AI in trade, fostering an enabling environment that nurtures innovation, protects stakeholders, and encourages responsible AI adoption. By formulating forward-thinking policies, Africa can proactively shape an environment conducive to AI-driven trade advancements while mitigating potential risks and challenges associated with AI deployment.

In essence, these combined efforts to invest in AI infrastructure, build expertise, foster international partnerships, and develop supportive policies are essential for Africa to harness AI’s potential as a catalyst for economic growth, enhance trade competitiveness, and unlock its full potential as a key player in the global trade landscape. Through a comprehensive approach that addresses infrastructural, human capacity, collaborative, and regulatory dimensions, Africa can position itself to effectively harness AI technologies to drive inclusive and sustainable economic development.

In conclusion, the integration of AI in trade has the potential to unlock Africa’s economic potential and pave the way for sustainable growth and prosperity. Through leveraging AI-powered technologies, Africa can streamline processes, enhance market access, and foster innovation in various industries. However, successful integration will require concerted efforts from governments, businesses, and other stakeholders to invest in AI infrastructure and skills development, and ensure equitable access. By embracing the transformative power of AI in trade, Africa can position itself as a formidable player in the global economy, driving progress and prosperity across the continent.

♦ Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and holds a Chartered Manager Status, and by extension, Chartered Fellow (CMgr FCMI) by the highly Reputable Royal Chartered Management Institute.

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A Thriving Approach in Artificial Intelligence World:  A Making of Prosperous 2024

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In today’s world, with the rapid advancement and integration of artificial intelligence (AI), it has become crucial to understand how to thrive in an AI-driven environment. The integration of AI is reshaping numerous industries, from healthcare and finance to entertainment and transportation, and is impacting our personal and professional lives in unprecedented ways. To thrive in this AI-driven world, it is essential to adapt and evolve with the technology, leveraging its capabilities to fast-track personal and professional development.

The most effective method to flourish in an AI-driven world and quickly track the turn of events is to be passionate with thriving interests. All in all, what can be done, at this moment, to guarantee your endurance in an undeniably AI-driven world and workplace remains trendingly inevitable. Well, you can start by improving your skills, especially in soft skills. As was mentioned earlier, people who want to make a name for themselves at work are likely to develop soft skills into superpowers.

However, how else would it be advisable for you to set yourself up? The following are some of the most important pointers that will help you get through any upcoming challenges.

  1. Embracing Continuous Learning and Upskilling.

One of the fundamental ways to thrive in an AI-driven world is to adopt a mindset of continuous learning and upskilling. With AI automating routine tasks, there is a growing need for individuals to develop skills that are complementary to AI technologies. This could involve learning to work alongside AI systems, understanding their capabilities, and leveraging them to enhance productivity and decision-making. Moreover, acquiring skills in data analysis, machine learning, and programming languages can enable individuals to work in collaboration with AI systems, opening up new career opportunities and enhancing professional development.

  1. Understanding the Impact of AI on Industries.

To thrive in an AI-driven world, it is essential to gain a deep understanding of how AI is impacting various industries. From healthcare diagnostics and precision medicine to personalized marketing and smart manufacturing, AI is revolutionizing traditional practices and creating new paradigms. By staying informed about these advancements, individuals can identify opportunities to apply AI in their respective fields and drive innovation. Furthermore, understanding the ethical and societal implications of AI is crucial for shaping its responsible and sustainable integration into different sectors.

  1. Fostering Creativity and Critical Thinking.

While AI excels at processing vast amounts of data and performing repetitive tasks with accuracy, human skills such as creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence remain invaluable. To thrive in an AI-driven world, individuals should focus on honing these uniquely human skills that cannot be replicated by machines. Creativity and critical thinking enable individuals to approach problems from unconventional angles, devise innovative solutions, and adapt to dynamic challenges, setting them apart in an AI-dominated landscape.

  1. Adopting an Agile and Adaptive Mindset.

In an AI-driven world where technological advancements occur at a rapid pace, individuals must adopt an agile and adaptive mindset to thrive. Secure position jobs that tick your cases as a whole even when not feeling fulfilled in your ongoing profession. You can utilize AI to secure positions that suit your abilities, experience, and interests collaboratively. In addition, it can assist you in polishing your CV and cover letter, automating job applications, and getting ready for interviews. This involves being open to change, embracing new technologies, and continuously refining one’s skill set. By remaining flexible and proactive in learning and adapting to emerging trends, individuals can position themselves at the forefront of technological innovation, driving their personal and professional growth in tandem with AI advancements.

  1. Collaborating with AI Systems.

Rather than perceiving AI as a threat to job security, individuals can seek to collaborate with AI systems to enhance their productivity and decision-making. AI is proficient at processing and analyzing vast datasets, providing insights, and automating routine tasks. By leveraging AI tools and platforms, individuals can augment their abilities, streamline workflows, and focus on value-adding aspects of their work. This collaborative approach can empower individuals to achieve higher levels of efficiency and performance, thereby accelerating their professional development.

  1. Embracing Ethical Considerations in AI.

As AI continues to permeate various aspects of our lives, it is imperative to consider the ethical implications of its use. Thriving in an AI-driven world entails embracing a thoughtful and responsible approach to the development and deployment of AI technologies. Ethically automate your tedious undertakings. Whether or not you can cut down on the amount of time you spend researching, writing, analyzing, or planning, having AI automate those mundane and repetitive tasks at work will give you more time to work on the things that pique your interest. This involves promoting fairness, transparency, and accountability in AI systems, and ensuring that the benefits of AI are accessible to all segments of society. By actively engaging in discussions surrounding AI ethics and advocating for responsible AI practices, individuals can contribute to a more inclusive and sustainable AI-driven world.

  1. Building a Network in AI Community.

To thrive in an AI-driven world, building a network within the AI community can be immensely beneficial. It means you have to establish solid relationships. The human association can’t at any point be duplicated by AI, so you ought to make the most of that. Utilize your interactive abilities and systems administration capacities to cause associations that will serve to develop your vocation and free you up to a universe of chances. You must frequently engage with professionals, researchers, and enthusiasts in the field of AI to provide opportunities for knowledge sharing, collaboration, and mentorship. By participating in industry events, online forums, and AI-focused initiatives, individuals can stay abreast of the latest developments in AI, access valuable resources, and forge meaningful connections that can accelerate their professional growth in the AI domain.

  1. Investing in AI Education and Training.

In the rapidly evolving landscape of AI, investing in education and training focused on AI technologies is critical for personal and professional development. You should figure out how to utilize AI prompts. Everybody will begin utilizing AI to make their functioning lives simpler – so you should jump aboard. Begin figuring out how to utilize AI prompts for your potential benefit, and you’ll probably dazzle at work. This could involve enrolling in AI-focused courses, obtaining certifications in machine learning and data science, or pursuing advanced degrees in AI-related disciplines. By acquiring a strong foundation in AI and staying updated on its advancements, individuals can position themselves as experts in the field and unlock diverse opportunities for career advancement and innovation.

Conclusively, thriving in an AI-driven world requires individuals to embrace a mindset of continuous learning, understand the impact of AI on different industries, foster creativity and critical thinking, and collaborate with AI systems. By adopting an agile and adaptive mindset, embracing ethical considerations, building a network within the AI community, and investing in AI education and training, individuals can fast-track their personal and professional development in the era of artificial intelligence. As AI continues to redefine the landscape of work and innovation, individuals who proactively engage with the opportunities presented by AI will be well-positioned to thrive and contribute meaningfully to the AI-driven world.

♦ Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a college professor 

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