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Trump may not make it to the primaries

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BY KEITH NAUGHTON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR

The conventional wisdom has Donald Trump as either the man to beat for the Republican nomination or at least headed for a drawn-out fight to the finish with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But could Trump flame out and not even make it to the Iowa caucuses?

It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. In fact, it’s not far-fetched at all.

Trump has severe strategic problems and polling problems, not to mention his legal difficulties. They all add up to a very rough trajectory over the next several months. Everyone knows Trump hates to lose. When faced with losing, he either claims he was cheated, or quits.

A year from now, Trump might be far enough behind DeSantis that quitting will be the only way to avoid losing.

Bad numbers getting worse

Trump’s polling has been soft for more than a year, with the percentage of Republicans who want him to run consistently falling 20 points or more below his approval ratings. He has found it difficult to score above 50 percent on ballot tests against Republicans who aren’t even running yet.

And those numbers are getting worse.

Both YouGov and Morning Consult conducted post-election benchmarks, and Trump’s fortunes are falling across the board. Morning Consult has the best polling for Trump, but Trump’s favorable rating with Republicans edged below 80 percent. While 61 percent of Republicans still want Trump to run, 73 percent of independents don’t. Trump’s ballot test against DeSantis fell from a 48 percent to 26 percent advantage pre-midterm to a 47 percent to 33 percent advantage, down 8 points.

The YouGov poll is a disaster for Trump. In one week Trump fell from 81 percent approval to 77 percent. Far worse, Republicans who want him to run collapsed from 60 percent to just 47 percent. DeSantis holds a 46 percent to 39 percent advantage on the ballot test. YouGov polled all voters on a Trump-DeSantis ballot and every demographic preferred DeSantis, except Hispanics who were split evenly. Conservatives favored DeSantis 51 percent to 33 percent, a catastrophe for Trump.

Dull and directionless Donald

But Trump’s biggest problem going forward is he has nothing new to offer.

His campaign announcement showed a man just plodding forward. After months of teasing a “big announcement” where everyone knew he was getting in the race, the actual event was an anti-climax. Instead of a big show, America saw Trump stroll into a gaudy country club ballroom and drone his way through a desultory teleprompter speech.

He offered nothing really new or interesting. Outside of pivoting from blaming the Democrats for stealing the 2020 election to blaming China (watch for that to become a theme), Trump just rehashed old promises and complained about Biden. What’s the message? Trump had four years to build a wall and didn’t, so give him a second chance? Trump didn’t drain the swamp, but he will this time? And there was no follow-up. No big Iowa or New Hampshire rally. Trump spoke, and that was it.

It all adds up to a candidate without a message, without credibility and even — finally — bereft of showmanship.

Given all that, how does Trump gain votes or even stop the bleeding?

Pivots won’t work

That lackluster Mar-a-Lago speech may have been an attempt to “pivot” in response to the beating Trump’s candidates took in the midterms.

It’s possible Trump and his advisers realized that blaming Democrats for “stealing” the 2020 election simply doesn’t have any traction, and they cast around for a new bogeyman: China is universally unpopular — maybe they figured he could avoid walking back his “stop the steal” claims by blaming Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP. Actual evidence has never been a requirement for these guys. But Trump and his acolytes are too deep in the original argument for this new gambit to work.

Trump always resorts to the teleprompter when he thinks a “statesman-like” approach is required. Again, he and his aides likely took a cue from the midterms, where voters rejected candidates who jockeyed to be the most obnoxious person in the room. But Trump’s whole shtick is being loud and on the attack with no boundaries. Trump is simply too deep in that character, too one-dimensional and doesn’t have the political chops to pull off a “new Nixon” transformation. There won’t be a “new Trump.”

Topping it all off, Trump has become a loser. Major GOP donors have jumped ship. Republican governors were meeting just a few hours away in Orlando — not one saw fit to make it to Palm Beach, an unthinkable snub just a year ago. No GOP Senator attended; instead, they voted Trump’s bete noireMitch McConnell (R-Ky.), back in as their leader. Even daughter Ivanka was a no-show. Those who did attend were a collection of MAGA table scraps.

In the summer, I wrote about the political co-dependency of President Biden and Trump. That dynamic has shifted with Trump taking the heat for GOP underperformance and Biden energized by the Democrats’ relatively good year. Biden ascendant does not so much hurt Trump as it helps DeSantis. With the prospect of Biden as the Democratic nominee, at least for now, more likely than not, DeSantis looks a lot better for Republicans.

The contrast of a new, energetic candidate in DeSantis vs. the aging, gaffe-prone Biden hurts Trump. Better to have a 46-year-old (in 2024) winner against the creaky 82-year-old Biden than to have the only slightly less geriatric, tedious, losing Trump.

The YouGov poll showed that 54 percent of voters think Biden’s age impairs his ability to be president, while just 18 percent disagree. For independents, the totals are 51 percent to 8 percent. All demographics and both parties have at least a plurality who think Biden’s age is a problem.

In sum, nothing is working for Trump. He’s running on fumes.

Quitting is better than losing

If Trump is staring at defeat by next December, my guess is he will find a way to get out — perhaps to fight “unfair” prosecutions, maybe to deal with some fake health scare, or — less likely — deferring to his wife and family. Perhaps it’s a combination. There’s no way Trump will go begging for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire only to be rebuffed. He may be a bit delusional, but he can read the polls.

Too many pundits and politicos have been burned by Trump. The lazy and safe take is to be cautious about writing Trump’s political obituary. But political conditions have completely changed from the days when Trump was riding high, and the political cognoscenti engaged in more wishful thinking than real analysis.

He is offering nothing to reverse his decline.

Only his opponents’ self-destruction — whether DeSantis or Mike Pence — might change the game. It’s possible, but that means Trump’s future is at the mercy of others. And given his own self-destructive tendencies, it would take an epic series of meltdowns to prop Trump up.

Culled from the Hill

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

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Navigating Bias and Ethics in AI-Powered Cybersecurity: The BRACE Framework Approach

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In the dynamic landscape of cybersecurity, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) systems has ushered in a new era of technological advancements and capabilities. However, with the increasing reliance on AI for cybersecurity operations, the prevalence of biases and ethical dilemmas within these systems has emerged as a critical concern. To address these challenges and foster more trustworthy and reliable AI technologies in the cybersecurity domain, the BRACE framework encapsulates a structured approach encompassing key components focused on bias identification, mitigation, ethical considerations, collaboration, and engagement. This framework serves as a cornerstone for stakeholders to navigate the complex terrain of AI ethics and biases, ensuring that AI systems in cybersecurity align with principled guidelines and societal expectations.

The BRACE framework presents a comprehensive and integrative approach towards enhancing the functionality and ethical integrity of AI systems operating within the realm of cybersecurity. Let’s delve deeper into the key components outlined within this framework:
1. Bias Identification: The foundational step of bias identification involves a meticulous examination of various facets of AI systems – from their design to the data they ingest, and the decision-making processes they employ. By scrutinizing these elements, potential biases can be unearthed, thereby shedding light on any factors that may impede the system’s performance.
2. Bias Mitigation: In the wake of identifying biases, the subsequent phase revolves around formulating tailored strategies to effectively tackle and mitigate them. This may encompass initiatives such as retraining algorithms with more inclusive datasets, fostering transparency in decision-making algorithms, and embodying oversight mechanisms to swiftly identify and rectify biases in real time.
3. Ethical Considerations: The incorporation of ethical considerations forms a pivotal component of the BRACE framework. This entails ensuring that AI systems adhere to a set of principled guidelines ranging from fairness and transparency to accountability and privacy. Moreover, a conscientious evaluation of the potential societal repercussions stemming from AI systems in cybersecurity is imperative to prevent any adverse effects on vulnerable communities or the perpetuation of existing disparities.
4. Collaboration and Engagement: An emphasis on collaboration and engagement with a broad spectrum of stakeholders is advocated within the BRACE framework. By fostering dialogue and partnerships amongst cybersecurity experts, AI researchers, policymakers, and affected communities, a diverse array of perspectives can be harnessed to cultivate robust solutions that effectively address biases and ethical concerns within AI systems utilized in cybersecurity.
Ultimately, the overarching objective of the BRACE framework is to establish a structured and holistic approach towards fostering the reliability and trustworthiness of AI technologies operating within the cybersecurity domain. By systematically addressing biases and ethical dilemmas through a synergistic blend of proactive measures and collaborative efforts, the BRACE framework endeavours to fortify the ethical foundations and operational efficacy of AI systems in cybersecurity.
In conclusion, the BRACE framework emerges as a beacon of guidance in the realm of AI systems in cybersecurity, offering a roadmap for navigating the intricate landscape of biases and ethical considerations. By illuminating potential biases, devising tailored mitigation strategies, incorporating ethical principles, and fostering collaboration, the framework paves the way for the development of AI technologies that not only excel in performance but also uphold ethical standards and societal values. As the cybersecurity landscape continues to evolve, the integration of the BRACE framework stands poised to shape a future where AI systems operate with transparency, fairness, and accountability, ultimately instilling confidence in their reliability and ethical integrity. Through the concerted efforts of diverse stakeholders and the adoption of structured frameworks like BRACE, the cybersecurity community can stride towards a future where AI technologies serve as trusted allies in safeguarding digital assets and upholding cybersecurity standards.

♦ Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and holds a Chartered Manager Status, and by extension, Chartered Fellow (CMgr FCMI) by the highly Reputable Royal Chartered Management Institute.

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The Call for Reform: Embracing Chief Awolowo’s Vision for a Better Nigeria

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As we celebrate the 115th Posthumous birthday of Chief Jeremiah Obafemi Oyeniyi Iyanda Awolowo, GCFR, it is essential to reflect on the valuable lessons that today’s politicians can learn from his exemplary leadership. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a visionary and transformative leader, left a lasting legacy of progressive governance, innovative policies, and unwavering commitment to the betterment of Nigeria. Chief Awolowo’s emphasis on reform to drive progress, development, and prosperity for all Nigerians remains as relevant today as it was during his tenure. In honouring Chief Awolowo’s birthday, it is fitting to consider how his principles can guide policymakers in navigating the complexities of modern governance and leading Nigeria toward a brighter and more sustainable future.

Reflecting on the indelible mark he left on Nigeria through his visionary leadership, particularly his groundbreaking free education policy, Chief Awolowo’s legacy continues to resonate with many Nigerians, myself included. Personally, I owe much of who I am today to the opportunities afforded to me through this policy. In honour of Chief Awolowo’s birthday, it is fitting to explore and celebrate his attributes that today’s politicians can emulate for the betterment of our nation.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo was a visionary leader who played a key role in shaping modern Nigeria. His commitment to the principles of justice, equity, and progress made him a champion of the common man and a symbol of good governance. As we celebrate his 115th Posthumous birthday, it is important to reflect on his legacy and the values he stood for.

 

♦ Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and holds a Chartered Manager Status, and by extension, Chartered Fellow (CMgr FCMI) by the highly Reputable Royal Chartered Management Institute.

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Driving Collaboration for Living Wage: Partnership Between Government and Labour Unions

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In today’s complex and dynamic workforce, the partnership between the government and labour unions is integral in driving sustainable progress. Both entities need to forge a unified front and identify shared priorities, particularly regarding job creation, workplace safety, fair wages, and social benefits. In doing so, they can collaborate effectively to address the needs of workers while also advancing broader national objectives, such as the establishment of a living wage.

The intricate relationship between government policies and labour unions presents a complex and challenging dynamic. While the government focuses on implementing policies to drive economic growth, social welfare, and national development, labour unions prioritize advocating for the rights and well-being of workers. This dichotomy can result in apparent discord, with labour unions resorting to strikes and protests to express their disagreement with government policies.

As the government pursues policies serving the broader national interest, it is essential to acknowledge the advocacy of labour unions for the welfare of workers. Despite occasional conflicts of interest, fostering understanding and cooperation between these two entities is critical. By delving into the complexities of this relationship and exploring avenues for collaboration, a more balanced and harmonious approach to policy-making can be achieved. This essay highlights the significance of cultivating understanding and cooperation between the government and labour unions, with the ultimate goal of attaining mutually beneficial outcomes.

However, it is important to recognize that both the government and the labour union share a common goal of promoting the welfare and prosperity of the workforce. Instead of approaching issues with hostility, there is a crucial need to foster understanding and cooperation between the two parties. This can be achieved through open dialogue, transparent communication, and a willingness to engage in constructive discussions.

One approach to building understanding and cooperation is for the government to provide comprehensive explanations for its policies and the rationale behind them. When labour unions are presented with clear and detailed information about the objectives and expected outcomes of government policies, they are better equipped to assess the potential impact on their members. This level of transparency helps to dispel any misconceptions or mistrust, paving the way for more informed and productive conversations.

Additionally, the government can actively seek input from labour unions during the policy-making process. By involving union representatives in discussions and seeking their perspectives, the government demonstrates a commitment to considering the interests of workers. This collaborative approach not only enriches the decision-making process but also conveys a message of inclusivity and mutual respect.

Furthermore, the government and labour unions must work together to identify areas of common ground. For instance, in the manufacturing sector, both parties may share a common goal of ensuring workplace safety. By collaborating on safety protocols and regulations, the government and unions can demonstrate their commitment to protecting workers’ well-being. Another example is related to fair wages, where both the government and unions can collaborate to establish minimum wage policies that balance the interests of businesses and workers. In doing so, they can provide a foundation for equitable compensation while also fostering a healthy business environment.

Additionally, in the public sector, both entities can work together to address issues such as pension plans and healthcare benefits, ensuring they align with the needs of employees and the fiscal sustainability of government programs. Through these examples, it is evident that aligning on common objectives allows the government and labour unions to engage in constructive dialogue and collaborative decision-making, yielding benefits for both workers and the broader society.

Certainly! The synergy of working together enables the government and labour unions to come up with a living wage for workers. By collaborating to identify areas of common ground, such as fair wages, both parties can align on the shared objective of ensuring that workers receive a living wage that supports their basic needs and fosters financial stability. For example, in sectors such as hospitality or retail, the government and unions can join forces to establish minimum wage standards that are reflective of the cost of living and provide workers with a means to support themselves and their families.

Furthermore, through open dialogue and collaboration, the government and unions can leverage their combined expertise to develop comprehensive wage policies that address industry-specific challenges while promoting socio-economic prosperity. This cooperative approach not only benefits workers by ensuring a fair and sustainable wage but also supports businesses in attracting and retaining a skilled and motivated workforce. By harnessing the synergy of their efforts, the government and labour unions can pave the way for the implementation of living wage initiatives that not only uplift workers but also contribute to the overall well-being of communities and the economy.

Several real-world examples highlight the power of collaboration between the government and labour unions. In countries such as Germany and the Nordic nations, social dialogue between government, employers, and trade unions has been instrumental in shaping policies that support workers’ rights, economic growth, and social stability. Through constructive negotiation and cooperation, these nations have been able to navigate complex economic challenges while upholding strong labour protections.

Essentially, fostering understanding and cooperation between the government and labour unions is indispensable for the effective implementation of policies and the promotion of the well-being of workers. By prioritizing transparency, dialogue, and collaboration, both parties can find common ground and work towards mutually beneficial solutions. This approach not only promotes social harmony but also leads to more sustainable and impactful policy outcomes. The relationship between the government and labour unions is a fundamental aspect of societal well-being and economic prosperity. It is imperative to recognize that effective policies must consider the rights and welfare of workers in conjunction with the broader national interest.

This cooperative approach is crucial for shaping policies that uphold the rights, dignity, and prosperity of the workforce. It not only fosters a more positive and productive working environment but also contributes to the long-term resilience of the socio-economic fabric. Embracing a spirit of understanding and cooperation between the government and labour unions is not only essential for harmonious labour relations but also integral for the long-term sustainability and prosperity of the economy.

As we move forward, let us recognize the power of collaboration in shaping policies that not only serve economic growth and national development but also prioritize the rights, dignity, and prosperity of the workforce. Promoting mutual understanding and cooperation between the government and labour unions is a significant step toward achieving policy outcomes that align with the interests of both parties and contribute to the overall advancement of society.

Conclusively, the synergy between the government and labour unions is imperative for achieving a fair and equitable working environment. By aligning on shared goals related to living wages and other vital employment factors, both parties can harness their collective influence to implement policies that not only benefit individual workers but also contribute to the welfare of the entire society. Through ongoing collaboration and cooperation, they can pave the way for a more resilient and inclusive economy, thereby fostering a better quality of life for all.

♦ Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is a college professor 

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