News
Polling expert who has correctly called US elections for 40 years says Kamala will win
Allan Lichtman , the American political historian known as the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House .
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in on Thursday.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
The professor, who has taught at the American University in Washington DC since 1973, has correctly called the winner of US presidential races over the last 40 years – he did not foresee George W Bush narrowly beating Al Gore in 2000 and also wrongly believed Donald Trump would take the popular vote in 2016 but has otherwise been unerring.
Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year in order to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient discontent among voters to allow a rival to pip them at the post.
Lichtman’s approach looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their tenure and the comparative charisma of the two candidates, in order to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.
If the administration in power achieves six or more “true” gradings, its candidate is expected to win – any fewer and their challenger is likely to come out on top.
In his explanatory video for the NYT , the professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently yield “true” answers, suggesting a Harris triumph and another four years in government for the Democrats.
Just three of the keys are definitively “false” but two more could flip that way, he said, although even if they did, five would still not be a sufficient total to deliver a win for the Republican ticket.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said.
“The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza , which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Speaking to Fox 5 Washington DC , Professor Lichtman further explained that Joe Biden ’s decision to stand aside in the wake of his disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June has proven a pivotal moment for the 2024 race.
“Democrats finally got a spine and got smart and united around Harris,” he explained.
“That avoided the loss of the party contest key. They already lost one key, the incumbency key, obviously, but to lose both of them is a near-fatal combination. So that made a huge difference.
“The other thing: I think Harris has had a positive effect on a couple of other keys. I think she contributed to the fizzling of the Robert F Kennedy Jr campaign since voters no longer have to choose between two old white guys. I hate to say that being an old white guy myself!
“And, secondly, I think she contributed to the dampening of major protests because Biden, the policymaker, was no longer out front.”
Asked whether anything could yet alter Trump’s fortunes, the professor answered: “Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history.”
According to the latest national polling, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump on 47 per cent of the vote to 43 per cent, although the candidates appear to be tied in three key battleground states: Pennsylvania , Nevada and Georgia .
The Democrat meanwhile has the lead in two more potentially crucial swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin , while the Republican former president has the advantage in Arizona .
Education
TSU’s CommWeek Positions School of Communication at the Forefront of AI, Innovation, and Student Success
HOUSTON, TX — Texas Southern University’s School of Communication is set to host its 44th Annual Media and Communication Conference (CommWeek 2026) from April 6–10 at the Martin Luther King Jr. Building, bringing together a dynamic mix of scholars, students, industry professionals, and civic leaders to examine the future of media in an increasingly digital and AI-driven world.
Widely regarded as one of the School’s signature academic and professional events, CommWeek has evolved into a powerful platform for intellectual exchange, industry engagement, and student-centered learning. This year’s theme, “Beyond the Algorithm: Reimagining Media, Learning & Innovation with AI,” reflects the growing influence of artificial intelligence across journalism, entertainment, digital storytelling, and communication education.
Throughout the week, participants will engage in a series of panels, workshops, masterclasses, and networking sessions designed to explore how emerging technologies are reshaping media ecosystems. Discussions will address critical topics such as AI-driven content creation, ethical considerations in automated communication, evolving media business models, and the future of audience engagement.
According to Interim Dean Dr. Alan K. Caldwell, CommWeek represents a strategic opportunity to elevate the School’s academic and professional profile.
“Communication Week represents more than a conference; it is a powerful platform to strengthen the School of Communication’s brand, showcase the excellence of our students and faculty, and highlight the innovative work happening across our programs,” Caldwell said. “By bringing together industry leaders, scholars, and alumni, we create collaborative connections that position our school as a hub for forward-thinking communication education.”
Conference Chair Dr. Anthony Obi Ogbo (left) and Interim Dean Dr. Alan K. Caldwell: CommWeek has evolved into a powerful platform for intellectual exchange, industry engagement, and student-centered learning.
In addition to its academic significance, CommWeek plays a vital role in advancing student success. A key highlight of the conference is the Dean’s Banquet and Scholarship Awards, which raises funds to support academically talented and financially underserved students. These scholarships help reduce financial barriers, cover tuition and educational resources, and improve student retention and graduation outcomes.
For Conference Chair Dr. Anthony Obi Ogbo, CommWeek 2026 represents both a continuation of tradition and a bold step toward the future of communication education.
“CommWeek is where scholarship meets practice and where innovation becomes accessible,” Ogbo said. “This conference is not only about examining the future of media—it is about preparing our students to lead it. By integrating academic rigor with industry insight, we are building a platform that empowers our students, strengthens our institutional identity, and fosters meaningful collaborations that extend far beyond the classroom.”
The conference also emphasizes experiential learning, offering students direct access to industry professionals, hands-on workshops, and career development opportunities. These interactions provide invaluable exposure to real-world practices and help bridge the gap between academic training and professional application.
As a historically Black university with a long-standing commitment to cultural responsiveness and community impact, Texas Southern University continues to position its School of Communication as a leader in preparing students for both local and global media landscapes. CommWeek reinforces this mission by creating an inclusive space where diverse voices, perspectives, and ideas can thrive.
Open to students, alumni, and the broader community, CommWeek 2026 is free to attend and serves as a testament to TSU’s commitment to accessibility, innovation, and academic excellence.
For more information and the full conference schedule, visit www.soc-commweek.com.
As the US-Israel and Iran war enters its 6th week, the Iranian military has responded to Donald Trump‘s threats from the Sunday outburst. The president warned Iran that they would be “living in hell” if they didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. Responding to Trump’s Sunday rant, Iran’s military responded that if he plans to harm the civilians, then their retaliation would be far stronger and larger in scale.
Following threats from Donald Trump, the Iranian military issued a statement warning that if civilian infrastructure is impacted, they will not remain silent, and their retaliation would be more severe. The statement read, “If attacks on civilian targets are repeated, the next stages of our offensive and retaliatory operations will be much more devastating and widespread.”
This statement comes amid Trump’s outburst on Truth Social, where he demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or face serious consequences. Naming potential targets, he said, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” Threatening Iran further, he added, “Open the F*ckin’ Strait, you crazy b*st*rds, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” He concluded his post with, “Praise be to Allah.”
Additionally, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker from Iran’s Parliament, also responded to Trump’s public threats on X (formerly Twitter). He noted that his “reckless” moves are pushing the US into “living hell” for every person residing there. Condemning the president’s latest tweet, he added, “Our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands. Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes.”
In a follow-up tweet, Qalibaf wrote that the only solution to this conflict is for the president to start respecting the Iranian people and to put a stop to this “dangerous game.”
Burbank, Calif. — What began as a seemingly happy two-year marriage ended in confrontation and police involvement after a Burbank woman allegedly used multiple electronic tracking devices to monitor her husband’s movements, authorities and sources familiar with the situation said.
According to information obtained by this outlet, the marriage between Amos and Yolanda deteriorated after Yolanda allegedly placed Apple AirTags, Tile trackers, and a GPS tracking device on Amos’ vehicle and personal belongings without his knowledge. The devices reportedly allowed her to monitor his location in real time and reconstruct his daily movements across the city.
Friends of the couple said the marriage appeared stable during its early years, with the pair often seen together at community events and social gatherings. However, tensions reportedly escalated when Yolanda began confronting Amos about his whereabouts, referencing locations and timelines he had not shared with her.
The situation reached a breaking point when Yolanda allegedly tracked Amos to an apartment complex in Burbank, where she believed he had gone without informing her. Sources say she arrived at the location shortly after he did, leading to a heated confrontation in the parking area of the building. Neighbors, alarmed by raised voices, contacted local authorities.
Burbank police responded to the scene and separated the parties. While no arrests were immediately announced, the incident marked the effective end of the couple’s marriage, according to individuals close to Amos.
Legal experts note that the unauthorized use of tracking devices may raise serious privacy and stalking concerns under California law, depending on intent and consent. Law enforcement officials have not publicly disclosed whether an investigation remains ongoing.
The case underscores growing concerns about the misuse of consumer tracking technology, originally designed to help locate lost items, but increasingly implicated in domestic disputes and surveillance-related allegations.
As of publication, neither Amos nor Yolanda had publicly commented on the incident.
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