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Polling expert who has correctly called US elections for 40 years says Kamala will win
Allan Lichtman , the American political historian known as the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House .
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in on Thursday.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
The professor, who has taught at the American University in Washington DC since 1973, has correctly called the winner of US presidential races over the last 40 years – he did not foresee George W Bush narrowly beating Al Gore in 2000 and also wrongly believed Donald Trump would take the popular vote in 2016 but has otherwise been unerring.
Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year in order to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient discontent among voters to allow a rival to pip them at the post.
Lichtman’s approach looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their tenure and the comparative charisma of the two candidates, in order to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.
If the administration in power achieves six or more “true” gradings, its candidate is expected to win – any fewer and their challenger is likely to come out on top.
In his explanatory video for the NYT , the professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently yield “true” answers, suggesting a Harris triumph and another four years in government for the Democrats.
Just three of the keys are definitively “false” but two more could flip that way, he said, although even if they did, five would still not be a sufficient total to deliver a win for the Republican ticket.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said.
“The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza , which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Speaking to Fox 5 Washington DC , Professor Lichtman further explained that Joe Biden ’s decision to stand aside in the wake of his disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June has proven a pivotal moment for the 2024 race.
“Democrats finally got a spine and got smart and united around Harris,” he explained.
“That avoided the loss of the party contest key. They already lost one key, the incumbency key, obviously, but to lose both of them is a near-fatal combination. So that made a huge difference.
“The other thing: I think Harris has had a positive effect on a couple of other keys. I think she contributed to the fizzling of the Robert F Kennedy Jr campaign since voters no longer have to choose between two old white guys. I hate to say that being an old white guy myself!
“And, secondly, I think she contributed to the dampening of major protests because Biden, the policymaker, was no longer out front.”
Asked whether anything could yet alter Trump’s fortunes, the professor answered: “Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history.”
According to the latest national polling, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump on 47 per cent of the vote to 43 per cent, although the candidates appear to be tied in three key battleground states: Pennsylvania , Nevada and Georgia .
The Democrat meanwhile has the lead in two more potentially crucial swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin , while the Republican former president has the advantage in Arizona .
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An immigration officer from Pennsylvania has been charged with accepting bribes in exchange for adjusting immigrants’ legal status over a nearly decadelong period.
Amara Dukuly, 43, of Brookhaven, Pennsylvania, was arrested and charged with bribery of a public official, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania announced Thursday.
Dukuly had allegedly used his status as a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services officer since 2015 to receive payments in exchange for adjustments to some people’s immigration statuses. Those adjustments include receiving a green card, work authorization documents, or visas.
USCIS handles “processing immigration and naturalization applications and establishing policies regarding immigration services.”
“Dukuly did not have the authority to do any of the things he promised these individuals,” the press release says. “After corruptly seeking, receiving, and accepting money in return for being influenced in the performance of an official act, Dukuly converted the monies he obtained from these bribes for his personal benefit.”
The case is being investigated by the Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General, Homeland Security Investigations, and the FBI. Assistant U.S. Attorney Anita Eve will lead the prosecution.
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In 2023, a group of Black investors based in Atlanta agreed to buy a white-owned bank, Holladay Bank & Trust, and convert it into a Black-owned one. The investors included Dr. Bernice A. King, a daughter of civil rights icon Dr. Martin Luther King Jr; Ashley D. Bell, a former White House policy adviser, and former NFL player Dhani Jones.
They planned to rename the Utah-based institution Redemption Bank and said they wanted to provide financial services to Black communities historically underserved by financial institutions while offering online banking services and small business loans.
The deal, which was awaiting regulatory approval, would mark the first time Black investors purchased a non-Black bank, a statement by Redemption Holding Company said at the time. It would also be the first time in American history that an existing commercial bank would become a Black-owned Minority Depository Institution (“MDI”) through acquisition, the statement added.
After two years, Redemption has finally completed its acquisition of Holladay Bank & Trust. It makes it the first time a bank has been owned by a Black-led investment group in the Western U.S., the AP reported this month.
The acquisition got delayed due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, Bell, CEO and chairman of Redemption Holding, told the AP.
“This process has undoubtedly taken longer than any of us anticipated,” Bell said. “However, we are grateful for the diligence of the staff at the FDIC, the leadership of the (American Bankers Association), and the renewed sense of urgency from the new administration this year, all of which helped bring everything together.”
While Bell is the CEO, King is expected to be Redemption Bank’s senior vice president for corporate strategy and serve on the company’s advisory board.
With about $65 million in assets, Redemption Bank will be the first Black-owned bank not physically located within an economically vulnerable community and the first in the Rockies, according to the AP.
It will also be the only one located in the Black-banking desert that stretches from Houston to Los Angeles, the AP added.
The company will further become the 24th Black-owned bank in the nation, termed as Minority Depository Institutions (MDI). MDI is a federal designation for banks and unions that are owned or controlled by minority groups. The most recent MDI was Adelphi Bank, launched in January 2023.
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Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) questioned first lady Melania Trump’s reported “Einstein visa” at a House hearing Wednesday.
“Let me remind y’all that Melania, the first lady, a model — and when I say model, I’m not talking about Tyra Banks, Cindy Crawford or Naomi Campbell level — applied for and was given an EB-1 visa, and what that stands for is an Einstein visa. Now y’all that don’t know, let me tell you how you receive an Einstein visa,” Crockett said.
“You’re supposed to have some sort of significant achievement, like being awarded a Nobel Peace Prize or a Pulitzer, being an Olympic medalist, or having other sustained extraordinary abilities and success in sciences, arts, education, business or athletics. Last time I checked, the first lady had none of those accolades under her belt,” the Texas Democrat added. “It doesn’t take an Einstein to see that the math ain’t mathin’ here.”
The Washington Post has reported that Trump in 2001 was given a green card via the elite EB-1 program. The program has been used by people such as academic researchers and multinational business executives, as well as people who have demonstrated “sustained national and international acclaim,” according to the Post.
Crockett’s comments came amid already heightened tensions over immigration in the U.S. as President Trump and his administration pursue an immigration crackdown.
The Trump administration has recently looked to social media more as a national security tool to vet immigrants, raising concerns the action could result in a chilling effect on political speech in the U.S.
The State Department announced earlier this month it was relaunching interviews and processing foreign student visas, with applicants having to make their social media accounts public for vetting or face possible denial.
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