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Polling expert who has correctly called US elections for 40 years says Kamala will win

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Allan Lichtman , the American political historian known as the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House .

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in a video for The New York Times on Thursday.

“At least, that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”

The professor, who has taught at the American University in Washington DC since 1973, has correctly called the winner of nine out of the last 10 US presidential races over the last 40 years – he did not foresee George W Bush narrowly beating Al Gore in 2000 and also wrongly believed Donald Trump would take the popular vote in 2016 but has otherwise been unerring.

Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year in order to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient discontent among voters to allow a rival to pip them at the post.

Lichtman’s approach looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their tenure and the comparative charisma of the two candidates, in order to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.

If the administration in power achieves six or more “true” gradings, its candidate is expected to win – any fewer and their challenger is likely to come out on top.

In his explanatory video for the NYT , the professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently yield “true” answers, suggesting a Harris triumph and another four years in government for the Democrats.

Just three of the keys are definitively “false” but two more could flip that way, he said, although even if they did, five would still not be a sufficient total to deliver a win for the Republican ticket.

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Kamala Harris is predicted to win November’s election, according to Professor Allan Lichtman (AP)

“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said.

“The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza , which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”

Speaking to Fox 5 Washington DC , Professor Lichtman further explained that Joe Biden ’s decision to stand aside in the wake of his disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June has proven a pivotal moment for the 2024 race.

“Democrats finally got a spine and got smart and united around Harris,” he explained.

“That avoided the loss of the party contest key. They already lost one key, the incumbency key, obviously, but to lose both of them is a near-fatal combination. So that made a huge difference.

“The other thing: I think Harris has had a positive effect on a couple of other keys. I think she contributed to the fizzling of the Robert F Kennedy Jr campaign since voters no longer have to choose between two old white guys. I hate to say that being an old white guy myself!

“And, secondly, I think she contributed to the dampening of major protests because Biden, the policymaker, was no longer out front.”

Asked whether anything could yet alter Trump’s fortunes, the professor answered: “Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history.”

According to the latest national polling, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump on 47 per cent of the vote to 43 per cent, although the candidates appear to be tied in three key battleground states: Pennsylvania Nevada and Georgia .

The Democrat meanwhile has the lead in two more potentially crucial swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin , while the Republican former president has the advantage in Arizona .

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Amanpour: Melania Trump’s ‘mainstream media’ remark is ‘dangerous’

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CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour is chastising former first lady Melania Trump over comments she made attacking the mainstream media in a recent interview.

“Mrs Trump is mistaken, political violence is not the fault of the ‘mainstream media’ and I wish she would take back this false and dangerous accusation,” Amanpour wrote in a social media post Friday morning.

The CNN anchor was referencing an interview Trump gave on Fox News a day earlier.

When asked about the recent assassination attempts against her husband, the former first lady called it “really shocking that all this egregious violence goes against my husband.”

“Especially that we hear the leaders from the opposition party and mainstream media branding him as a threat to democracy, calling him vile names,” she said. “They only fueling a toxic atmosphere and giving power all of these people that they want to do harm to him. This needs to stop. This needs to stop. The country needs to unite.”

Amanpour’s post was first highlighted by Mediaite.

Trump’s sit-down was the first interview she had granted to a major media outlet in more than two years, and it came as she was promoting a new book.

Former President Trump and his allies regularly attack the mainstream media, singling out CNN in many cases as “fake news” and “the enemy of the people.”

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Hurricane Helene kills at least 44 and causes havoc across the Southeast

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(AP) — Hurricane Helene left an enormous path of destruction across Florida and the southeastern U.S. on Friday, killing at least 44 people, snapping towering oaks like twigs and tearing apart homes as rescue crews launched desperate missions to save people from floodwaters.

Among those killed were three firefighters, a woman and her 1-month-old twins, and an 89-year-old woman whose house was struck by a falling tree. According to an Associated Press tally, the deaths occurred in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

The Category 4 hurricane knocked out power to some hospitals in southern Georgia, and Gov. Brian Kemp said authorities had to use chainsaws to clear debris and open up roads. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 kph) when it made landfall late Thursday in a sparsely populated region in Florida’s rural Big Bend area, home to fishing villages and vacation hideaways where the state’s panhandle and peninsula meet.

Moody’s Analytics said it expects $15 billion to $26 billion in property damage.

The wreckage extended hundreds of miles northward to northeast Tennessee, where a “ dangerous rescue situation ” by helicopter unfolded after 54 people were moved to the roof of the Unicoi County Hospital as water rapidly flooded the facility. Everyone was rescued and no one was left at the hospital as of late Friday afternoon, Ballad Health said.

In North Carolina, a lake featured in the movie “Dirty Dancing” overtopped a dam and surrounding neighborhoods were evacuated, although there were no immediate concerns it would fail. People also were evacuated from Newport, Tennessee, a city of about 7,000 people, amid concerns about a dam near there, although officials later said the structure had not failed.

Tornadoes hit some areas, including one in Nash County, North Carolina, that critically injured four people.

Atlanta received a record 11.12 inches (28.24 centimeters) of rain in 48 hours, the most the city has seen in a two-day period since record keeping began in 1878, Georgia’s Office of the State Climatologist said on the social platform X. The previous mark of 9.59 inches (24.36 cm) was set in 1886. Some neighborhoods were so badly flooded that only car roofs could be seen poking above the water.

Climate change has exacerbated conditions that allow such storms to thrive, rapidly intensifying in warming waters and turning into powerful cyclones sometimes in a matter of hours.

When Laurie Lilliott pulled onto her street in Dekle Beach, Florida, after Helene plowed through, she couldn’t see the roofline of her home beyond the palm trees. It had collapsed, torn apart by the pounding storm surge, one corner still precariously propped up by a piling.

“It took me a long time to breathe,” Lilliott said.

As she surveyed the damage, her name and phone number were still inked on her arm in permanent marker, an admonition by Taylor County officials to help identify recovered bodies in the storm’s aftermath. The community has taken direct hits from three hurricanes since August 2023.

All five who died in one Florida county were in neighborhoods where residents were told to evacuate, said Bob Gualtieri, the sheriff in Pinellas County in the St. Petersburg area. Some who stayed ended up having to hide in their attics to escape the rising water. He said the death toll could rise as crews go door-to-door in flooded areas.

More deaths were reported in Georgia and the Carolinas, including two South Carolina firefighters and a Georgia firefighter who died when trees struck their trucks.

Video on social media showed sheets of rain and siding coming off buildings in Perry, Florida, near where the storm hit land. A news station showed a home that was overturned, and many communities established curfews.

Also in Perry, the hurricane peeled off the new roof of a church that was replaced after Hurricane Idalia last year.

When the water hit knee-level in Kera O’Neil’s home in Hudson, Florida, she knew it was time to escape.

“There’s a moment where you are thinking, ‘If this water rises above the level of the stove, we are not going to have not much room to breathe,’” she said, recalling how she and her sister waded through chest-deep water with one cat in a plastic carrier and another in a cardboard box.

President Joe Biden said he was praying for survivors, and the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency headed to the area. The agency deployed more than 1,500 workers, and they helped with 400 rescues by late morning.

In Tampa, some areas could be reached only by boat.

Officials urged people who were trapped to call for rescuers and not tread floodwaters, warning they can be dangerous due to live wires, sewage, sharp objects and other debris.

More than 3 million homes and businesses were without power in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas as of late Friday, according to poweroutage.us. The site also showed outages as far north as Ohio and Indiana due to Helene’s rapid northward movement throughout the day.

In Georgia, an electrical utility group warned of “catastrophic” damage to utility infrastructure, with more than 100 high voltage transmission lines damaged. And officials in South Carolina, where more than 40% of customers were without power, said crews had to cut their way through debris just to determine what was still standing in some places.

The hurricane came ashore near the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 20 miles (30 kilometers) northwest of where Idalia hit last year at nearly the same ferocity. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the damage from Helene appears to be greater than the combined effects of Idalia and Hurricane Debby in August.

“It’s tough, and we understand that. We also understand that this is a resilient state,” DeSantis said at a news conference in storm-damaged St. Pete Beach.

Soon after it crossed over land, Helene weakened to a tropical storm and later a post-tropical cyclone. Forecasters said it continued to produce catastrophic flooding, and some areas received more than a foot of rain.

A mudslide in the Appalachian Mountains washed out part of an interstate highway at the North Carolina-Tennessee state line.

Another slide hit homes in North Carolina and occupants had to wait more than four hours to be rescued, said Ryan Cole, the emergency services assistant director in Buncombe County. His 911 center received more than 3,300 calls in eight hours Friday.

“This is something that we’re going to be dealing with for many days and weeks to come,” Cole said.

Forecasters warned of flooding in North Carolina that could be worse than anything seen in the past century. Evacuations were underway and around 300 roads were closed statewide. The Connecticut Army National Guard sent a helicopter to help.

School districts and universities canceled classes. Florida airports that closed due to the storm reopened Friday. Inspectors were examining bridges and causeways along the Gulf Coast, the state’s transportation secretary said.

Helene also swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, flooding streets and toppling trees as it brushed past the resort city of Cancun this week. It also knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses in western Cuba.

Helene was the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.

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Haitian immigrant group calls for arrest warrants for Trump and Vance in Ohio

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The Haitian Bridge Alliance, a non-profit organization that “provides migrants and immigrants with humanitarian, legal and social services”, filed criminal charges against Donald Trump and JD Vance over their inflammatory, racist remarks about Haitian immigrants. The rhetoric has led to threats of violence in Springfield, Ohio, including more than 30 bomb threats, forced evacuations of schools and government buildings and violence against Haitians in the city .

The filing comes after both the Republican presidential candidate and his running mate made false statements about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, alleging that they were stealing and eating their neighbors’ pets. The charges include disrupting public services, making false alarms, two counts of telecommunications harassment, aggravated menacing, and complicity. Ohio law allows the public to file criminal charges in the same way a prosecutor would. In this case, the Haitian Bridge Alliance is asking the Clark county municipal court to affirm that there is probable cause that Trump and Vance committed the crimes, and to issue arrest warrants for them both.

“Trump and Vance have knowingly spread a false and dangerous narrative by claiming that Springfield, Ohio’s Haitian community is criminally killing and eating neighbors’ dogs and cats, and killing and eating geese,” the affidavit reads. “They accused Springfield’s Haitians of bearing deadly disease. They repeated such lies during the presidential debate, at campaign rallies, during interviews on national television, and on social media.”

Trump continued perpetuating the statements even after they had been confirmed to be false , while Vance recently remarked that he was willing to “create stories” for political gain.

They continued to repeat what the filing calls an “orchestrated … campaign of lies” that “spread a false narrative that Haitians in Springfield are a danger”.

“Many public institutions have been forced to evacuate, and vital local resources were diverted to investigate the barrage of threats to the community,” the filing reads.

Despite the public nature of Trump and Vance’s claims, local prosecutors have failed to take any action. But because the criminal charges were filed by citizens, a prosecuting attorney will be obligated to make a public decision.

Trump and Vance, the US senator from Ohio, have indicated that they may travel to Springfield. The filing asks the court to make a decision prior to their arrival.

“This should be done before Trump fulfills his threat to visit Springfield – despite Mayor Rob Rue’s request that he not do so – so that he may be arrested upon arrival for his criminal acts,” the affidavit reads.

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