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Breaking the Stronghold: The Challenge of Unseating Nigeria’s Sitting Presidents
“The Executive wields significant and often unchecked influence over the institutions critical to the democratic process” —Anthony Obi Ogbo
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, all eyes are on incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who is expected to seek a second term amid mounting national discontent. His administration, marred by persistent allegations of corruption, ethnic favoritism, and constitutional overreach, has faced sharp criticism from both civil society and opposition blocs. Questions surrounding fiscal opacity, particularly in budget allocations, alongside his controversial academic credentials and ineffective international engagements, have intensified public skepticism about his leadership and intentions.
In what may signal the onset of a fierce political confrontation ahead of this pivotal election, three heavyweight opposition figures—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Governors Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi—have jointly set their sights on unseating President Tinubu and dismantling the grip of the APC. Describing the current administration as presiding over a regime marred by deepening poverty, rampant insecurity, economic stagnation, and institutional decay, the trio announced a political realignment to “rescue Nigeria from systemic collapse.”
The bold declaration has already intensified political tensions, drawing a sharp rebuttal from the APC. Through its National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, the ruling party dismissed the trio’s criticisms as “a calculated deflection,” arguing that the opposition figures themselves failed to deliver lasting reforms during their combined 24 years in high-level political office between 1999 and 2023.
This brewing political contest sets the stage for a historic election cycle, where questions of leadership credibility, national recovery, and democratic integrity will dominate the national discourse. While the opposition continues to build up, only a few are sufficiently engaged with the entrenched institutional challenges that threaten the very integrity of Nigeria’s democratic process —the most formidable being the implausibility of unseating a sitting President. This entrenched difficulty is not merely a function of political popularity or party dominance but rather a deeply imbalanced governance architecture that disproportionately empowers the executive arm of government.
The Nigerian executive wields significant and often unchecked influence over the institutions critical to the democratic process: security agencies, the judiciary, and the electoral commission. These are the very pillars responsible for safeguarding transparency, enforcing the rule of law, and ensuring the integrity of elections. However, in practice, they often operate under the shadow of executive pressure, patronage, or outright control.
This over-centralization of authority creates a political environment where incumbents are not only insulated from accountability but are also equipped with the institutional leverage to influence electoral outcomes in their favor. Consequently, genuine political competition becomes stifled, opposition parties systematically weakened, and democratic transitions of power rendered exceptional rather than routine.
The concentration of power within the executive—particularly its influence over security forces, the judiciary, and the electoral commission—creates a dangerous imbalance that favors incumbency at the expense of free competition. Without meaningful reform and the insulation of democratic institutions from political interference, the 2027 elections risk becoming another exercise in formality rather than a true expression of the people’s will. The stakes, as history has repeatedly shown, could not be higher.
In Nigeria’s deeply flawed political architecture, incumbency is not merely an advantage but a strategic stronghold. Successive presidents have leveraged the whole state machinery, including control over security, electoral institutions, and judicial levers, to secure re-election or ensure succession within their party ranks. The structural imbalance heavily tilts the political playing field in favor of those already in power.
Historically, no incumbent president has lost a re-election bid—except Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, whose defeat is widely attributed not to the strength of his opposition but to internal missteps. Isolated by layers of sycophantic advisers and disconnected from public sentiment, Jonathan placed trust in a political echo chamber that ultimately misled him. His loss marked a rare exception in Nigeria’s democratic experiment, underscoring how even incumbency can falter under the weight of complacency and strategic miscalculation.
Despite criticism over economic hardships and security challenges, the APC’s political machinery remains robust. The party has witnessed defections from opposition ranks, further strengthening its base. While the opposition is strategizing to mount a formidable challenge, the incumbent’s entrenched position, coupled with a fragmented opposition landscape, suggests that Tinubu’s prospects for re-election remain strong. The interplay of political strategy, institutional control, and recent policy initiatives positions the APC favorably as the nation heads toward the 2027 elections.
Until structural reforms ensure true independence and insulation of key democratic institutions from executive overreach, the notion of a free and fair political contest, especially against incumbents, will remain more theoretical than real.
♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Professor Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015) and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us
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Godfatherism in Africa: Do women and young people stand a chance to lead?
In many African countries, it has become quite impossible for one to ascend to political success without having an influential godfather to “knight” you into politics or someone of political clout to sponsor you into politics.
The concept of Godfatherism is a guiding principle and reference to contemporary politics in Nigeria. This type of political quagmire has held the true virtues of democracy and free and fair elections hostile.
The interesting thing about Godfatherism is that it is often referenced to politics in African countries; however, this is a global phenomenon affecting most countries in the world in various degrees. And it is no surprise that Nigeria’s polity is filled with Grandfather/Godson duos.
Two groups of people are often left out of the equation and conversation when it comes to politics in Nigeria—ambitious young people and women. Nigeria is still very much considered to be a patriarchal society where a woman’s success may sometimes be relegated to that of a man/godfather, her father, or her husband.
I believe we are trying to deliberately change the tides of respecting women who are self-made, gifted, ambitious, and successful on their own accord. In addition, there is a tendency to despise young people for their age, assuming that because they are young they are naïve, ill-prepared, and “not serious.
” You often hear older politicians saying, “Politics is not a child’s play.” However, every politician started from somewhere. A true democracy or that which anchors itself in liberty, equality, and justice unifies every member of society and creates a space where all ideas, talents, and skills are nurtured and welcomed.
Any government that runs its political entity on the foundation of Godfatherism is doing itself a disservice. What ends up happening in a government that has been unable to rid itself of such, is that it often finds itself unable to resolve political, social, economic, and cultural issues over time.
No matter the leader, the problems facing the country never come to a resolution or completion period. You have generations of people facing the same issues carried over by previous generations. The sad part of it all is that every society has several individuals, groups, and civil societies that have the answers and solutions to solving pressing issues facing its nation. However, a whole segment of the population is ignored due to gender and age discrimination.
The only reason why Godfatherism still exists is because there is a need to maintain a certain status quo that only benefits a small number of people in a society in which the vast majority are not able to take part.
The only way to disrupt Godfatherism is for every woman and young person to continue to step up, stand out, and use their voice as an instrument of change. Change does not happen overnight, but I am hoping that there will be one, perhaps two out of the millions of young people and women around the world, who will rise to the highest seat in the land and change the narrative and picture of how a global leader should look.
♦ Yetunde Odugbesan-Omede, Ph.D., is currently the Director of the Office of Community and Civic Engagement and Professor of Global Affairs and Politics at Farmingdale State College (FSC), East Farmingdale, New York.
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