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Anthony Obi Ogbo

Consolidating the South-East—Atiku’s ‘Dan Ulasi’ Move is a Smart Choice

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2 years ago

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“Dan Ulasi understands Nigeria’s electoral maps and could read them with his eyes closed” ―Anthony Obi Ogbo

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Campaigns for the 2023 general election officially commenced on September 28, in line with the timetable and schedule of activities of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This date signaled the beginning of a process of shaping the electioneering landscape ahead of the general election. In the succeeding weeks, all the major political parties unleashed their supporters on the campaign trail to wave the flags of the electioneering crusade.

 

From the major streets of the core cities, as can be seen on social media, the Nigerian election campaign is trending. For instance, the Labor Party (LP), with Peter Obi as its flagbearer, touted highly attended October 1 rallies all over the country. The All Progressive Congress (APC), even with its flagbearer, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, out on an unexplained foreign visit, showcased highly attended rallies in the core cities of the North-West and South-West zones. The presidential candidate of the New Nigerian People Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, upon commissioning his presidential campaign office in Kano, bragged that his party was the fastest-growing political party Nigeria had ever seen. There was massive attendance when the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) flagged off its campaign in Uyo with its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, leading the cause and urging Nigerians to vote for his party to ensure good governance.

However, what we must understand is that rally attendance or intimidating images of campaign gatherings do not determine the outcomes of elections. In my recent article, ‘The test of translating a movement into electoral victory votes,’ I outlined a pathway to victory and explained how strategic alignment can sustain a winning approach. I clarified the three most crucial winning structures: facilitating and sustaining an on-the-ground poll army, strategic coordination of electoral maps, and the ability to counter ballot mishandling and falsification of ballot figures. Strategy is key.

So, when Atiku Abubakar appointed Chief Dan Ulasi as the Technical Adviser on Contact and Mobilization for the South-East geopolitical zone, we can be sure that his party is strategically working the electoral maps. After all, the South-East is bitter with the Nigerian system over an unfavorable political arrangement that isolates it from core political leadership positions. This situation was made worse when another chance eluded them in the presidential nomination process of the PDP, a party they have passionately supported.

He has been working the electoral process since the Second Republic politics of the late 70s

The appointment of Chief Ulasi to walk this troubled cause might be a lucrative political gamble. He is a Nnewi-born ballot strategist and political technocrat; he has been working the electoral process since the Second Republic politics of the late 70s, was chairman of the National Republican Convention (NRC) in Anambra State in the aborted Third Republic, and also served as chairman of the PDP in 2003.

He understands Nigeria’s electoral maps and could read them with his eyes closed. During the 2015 contentious presidential race between former President Goodluck Jonathan and the incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari, Chief Ulasi also coordinated strategic structures and was the only PDP strategist to predict that his party was in trouble. His party at the time did not listen.

At the presidential level, the South East has been a PDP stronghold. Upholding that position requires strategists who understand the political landscape, and Atiku realizes that. Within his party’s framework, Chief Ulasi has strategically helped raise the South-East geopolitical ethnic group to the national political setting. In his recent media outing, he presented his insights on where the Igbos would be headed under each of the major political parties. He explained the danger of the Igbos voting for other major parties, especially the LP. “There is no way that those votes will lead us to victory. First, an election has happened in Osun and they failed woefully.” Chief Ulasi argued that voting for losing parties would isolate the Igbos once again from the central government. A situation they have been enduring since the current administration.

A lone candidate without considerable legislative support is limited in how they can help their base

The role of electoral maps is crucial in a democracy. A lone candidate without considerable legislative support is limited in how they can help their base. As I stated in my previous article, in Nigeria’s organizational structure, the executive branch does not make the laws; it carries them out. The judiciary evaluates the laws but often has the power to preside over crucial decisions. The National Assembly, which consists of a Senate with 109 members and a House of Representatives with 360 members, exerts significant power in making structural changes. In fact, should the President reject a bill, the Assembly could pass it by a two-thirds majority of both chambers and overrule the veto—in which case, the President’s consent is not required.

Under the current legislative structure, in the Senate (109 seats), the APC has 66 seats to the PDP’s 38 seats, while the other parties combined have two seats, with three vacant seats. In the House of Representatives (360 seats), the APC has 227 seats to the PDP’s 121 seats, while the other parties combined have 11 seats, with one vacant seat.

In conclusion, by transcending a quest for a new president, this election must involve strategies to mobilize for substantial control of the legislative chambers. Atiku’s invitation of Chief Ulasi to the PDP’s campaign strategy suite is specifically addressing this purpose. Without a doubt, he made a smart choice.

♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Journalism and RTF Professor, Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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Anthony Obi Ogbo

Sylvester Turner Should Cancel His Bid for Late Jackson Lee’s Congressional Seat

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2 days ago

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July 25, 2024

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“Running an election alongside his mentees might be seen as a selfish but insatiable appetite for office.“ —Anthony Ogbo

Former Mayor Sylvester Turner has expressed serious interest in running for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s congressional seat. In an interview with KHOU, Turner stated that the passing of his friend (Sheila) has prompted him to consider coming out of retirement for this critical opportunity. A decision from the former mayor is expected in the coming days.

74-year Jackson Lee, a prominent figure in Houston politics, passed away last week after revealing her battle with pancreatic cancer earlier this year. She had represented the 18th Congressional District since 1995, earning a reputation for her unwavering dedication and frequent presence at community events within the district.

Among other declared and potential Democratic candidates vying for Jackson Lee’s seat are state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, Houston Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and Amanda Edwards, who placed second in the district’s original primary.

The news of Turner’s potential consideration for a congressional position has sparked surprise among Houstonians, particularly his community supporters. However, there is a noticeable silence surrounding the topic, with many engaging in hushed conversations and speculation. The mere idea of transitioning to a fast-paced congressional role raises concerns about the potential impact on the community and his supporters, who are unsure about his physical well-being.

At 69 years old, Turner is a seasoned attorney, activist, and politician who recently concluded a tumultuous 8-year term in office. But his departure in January was marked by health concerns. He had battled bone cancer in his jaw, undergoing surgery and six weeks of radiation therapy in 2022. This ailment not only forced him to cancel an official trip to France but also led to his absence from City Council meetings for several weeks.

There is currently a discussion surrounding the potential for Turner to assume a new role in Congress because his health issues cast doubt on his capacity to fulfill the responsibilities of this position. This has elicited a range of emotions among observers, with some expressing concern about his ability to effectively manage the demands of the role. Despite his experience and dedication to public service, concerns linger about his physical stability and capacity, to effectively represent constituents in a more demanding political arena.

Turner’s consideration to vie for Sheila Jackson Lee’s congressional seat also reveals a poignant irony. Jackson Lee tragically passed away while juggling the demands of her congressional responsibilities and battling a deadly form of cancer. Despite undergoing treatment for pancreatic cancer, she tirelessly worked to support her constituents during the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl. For over two weeks, Jackson Lee stood up for the thousands of individuals in her district who were left vulnerable without power.

Some members of the community believed that Jackson-Lee should have retired after her cancer diagnosis. However, her passing could serve as a lesson to other long-serving public officials who would neglect their health in pursuit of power and public service.

The impact of politics on physical, psychological, and social health is a reality that cannot be denied. Recently, President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race after facing intense pressure, speculation, and internal turmoil within his own Democratic Party. Concerns about his health, both physical and cognitive, have been a constant focus in recent weeks, especially his lackluster performance at the June 27 presidential debate. This situation highlights the toll that politics can take on individuals at the highest levels of government.

Public officials need to prioritize their health and well-being, as neglecting it can have serious consequences. Serving the public is a noble calling, but it should not come at the expense of one’s own health. Jackson-Lee’s passing should remind all public servants of the importance of retirement. It serves as a sobering reminder that life is precious and unpredictable and that it is essential to prioritize self-care and well-being to enjoy a fulfilling retirement after years of dedicated service.

Ultimately, Jackson-Lee’s passing should inspire Turner to take proactive steps toward sustaining his happy and healthy retirement. He should reconsider his bid for Jackson Lee’s Congressional Seat. At this point in his career, it may be more beneficial for him to contemplate retirement and offer his support to other candidates who have long been supporters of his campaign during his political career. Running an election alongside those mentees might be seen as a selfish but insatiable appetite for office.

♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Professor Anthony Obi Ogbo,PhD, is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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Anthony Obi Ogbo

Was Trump’s Assassin unstoppable because he was White?

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1 week ago

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July 17, 2024

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“It is worth considering whether Trump’s assassin would have been treated differently if he were Black.“ —Anthony Ogbo

On Saturday, July 13, a gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, armed with an AR-15 assault rifle, brazenly carried his killer weapon to the rooftop from a short distance to the podium where the former President, Donald Trump was addressing a political rally. Unchallenged, he fired up to eight shots toward the stage, with one shot hitting Trump’s right ear. Tragically, one rally-goer died, and two others were critically injured before the assailant was taken down by a Secret Service sniper. The shooter was identified as white.

Just a few days later, on Tuesday, five Columbus police officers in Milwaukee shot and killed a homeless man outside the security perimeter of the Republican convention. The man was waving knives at others, and residents reported that he had been living in a tent. To be precise, this incident took place about 1 mile from the convention in a residential neighborhood that included a large homeless encampment. The homeless man was Black.

Since the incident involving Trump, investigators have been diligently working to determine the cause of the attack and prevent future occurrences. They have explored various theories and possibilities as they come to terms with how the individual was able to conveniently carry out such a heinous act.

Attendees at the event had alerted local police about the shooter heading towards the rooftop. However, authorities failed to communicate this information to security personnel, potentially jeopardizing the safety of the former President. A Homeland Security law enforcement memo revealed that the shooter had recently purchased ammunition, received hazardous material shipments, and had improvised explosive devices in his car and home.

It was also reported that before the would-be assassin aimed at Trump, attendees reported they saw him pacing and behaving strangely. Crooks was not shot, rather, local police officers began pursuing him on foot. During the pursuit, the U.S. official said, local police told the Secret Service they were looking for a suspicious person near the event. Furthermore, the U.S. official said the Secret Service was told of a suspicious person before local police discovered Crooks on the roof of a nearby glass research company’s building. That discovery occurred shortly before Crooks opened fire, according to law enforcement sources.

The timing of these events raises concerns about whether additional precautions could have been implemented to prevent Crook’s actions. It is worth considering whether this assassin would have been treated differently if he had been Black. Comparing both events can provide insight into potential biases and disparities in treatment based on race.

The fact that the suspect in Trump’s assassination attempt in Pennsylvania was White and was handled with such reluctance and oversight, while the Black homeless man in Milwaukee was shot and killed instantly by police, highlights the disparities in how individuals of different races are treated by law enforcement. This raises questions about whether race played a role in how both incidents were handled and whether there are underlying biases that need to be addressed within the criminal justice system.

Authorities claimed that the fatal shooting in Milwaukee was not connected to the convention. However, this incident sheds light on larger concerns regarding the use of external law enforcement for events such as conventions. Furthermore, it is important to examine these cases closely and consider how systemic racism may be influencing outcomes in similar situations. By acknowledging these disparities, we can work towards creating a more just and equitable society for all individuals, regardless of their race.

Despite efforts to address systemic racism and improve police-community relations, recent events such as the killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Daunte Wright have highlighted the ongoing challenges and injustices faced by Black Americans at the hands of law enforcement. These incidents serve as a stark reminder that there is still much work to be done to achieve true equality and justice for all individuals, regardless of race. It is clear that while progress has been made in some areas, the reality on the ground continues to show that racial disparities and police brutality remain pervasive issues in America.

♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Professor Anthony Obi Ogbo,PhD, is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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Netanyahu should lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way

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1 month ago

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June 23, 2024

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current leadership crisis can be likened to the principles of General George S. Patton Jr., who famously said that one can either lead him, follow him, or “get the hell” out of his way. General Patton was a no-nonsense United States Army general who led troops in World War II, and his quote has become a cornerstone for understanding the complicated art of leading. Besides other fundamental competencies in leadership, taking responsibility is crucial as it builds trust and respect, and promotes honesty, transparency, and accountability for both successes and failures. Accepting responsibility thus demonstrates integrity, humility, and a commitment to personal growth and development.

Following a devastating attack by Hamas terrorists on October 7, Israeli officials have taken responsibility for their failures in preventing the violence that led to the current conflict. However, Netanyahu has refused to accept responsibility for the situation. The attack was a horrific display of violence, with Hamas terrorists killing innocent civilians, including women and children, and taking hostages. Since the start of this conflict, Netanyahu has struggled to define his clear goals and strategies. He has been confused about dealing with his cabinet, the public, and Israeli allies – shifting blame onto others, and prioritizing his political survival over the needs of the nation.

Last week, he publicly criticized his strongest ally, the United States, for withholding weapons needed for the war. Directing sharp criticisms at President Joe Biden, he suggested that this delay was hindering Israel’s offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where ongoing fighting has worsened the already dire humanitarian situation for Palestinians. In reality, Biden had postponed the delivery of certain heavy bombs since May due to concerns about Israel’s actions resulting in civilian casualties in Gaza. However, Netanyahu conveniently omitted the fact that he had outright rejected the U.S. request to reconsider a full-scale invasion of Rafah, where over 1 million people are seeking refuge. Defiantly, he asserted that Israel would continue its mission to eradicate Hamas, with or without U.S. support.

Netanyahu’s uncompromising stance on challenging policy issues persisted as he dissolved his war Cabinet last week to consolidate his authority over military decisions. Before this move, his main political rival, Benny Gantz, a retired general and member of parliament known for his moderate views, withdrew from the three-member war Cabinet. This means that major war strategies will now be exclusively approved by Netanyahu’s security Cabinet, a larger body dominated by hard-liners who oppose the U.S.-backed cease-fire proposal and advocate for continuing the conflict.

Israel is currently facing a political dilemma with Netanyahu at the helm. The political landscape has been turbulent, with Netanyahu facing a growing opposition. This was exemplified by the recent passing of a controversial judicial overhaul bill in the Israeli parliament, sparking civil resistance. The situation escalated when reservists, including F-16 pilots, refused to fly under Netanyahu’s leadership until the anti-democratic bill was revoked. These actions not only impact military readiness but also underscore internal threats to Israel’s democracy.

In March, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for new elections in Israel, criticizing Netanyahu as an impediment to peace. Schumer, a long-time supporter of Israel and the highest-ranking U.S. Jewish elected official expressed concerns about Netanyahu’s government and highlighted the need for change in leadership, especially during a war that began with attacks on Israel by Hamas militants.

Schumer’s sentiments are shared by many, as Netanyahu’s prolonged tenure has raised concerns about stagnation and a lack of fresh ideas. The Prime Minister’s multiple corruption charges have also tarnished his leadership, contributing to increased polarization within Israeli society. A new leader could potentially bring innovative approaches to address pressing issues and bridge divisions within the country.

There are significant policy issues at play in Israel, particularly under Netanyahu’s leadership. His policies on settlements, security, and the peace process have sparked controversy and debate. Critics argue that his stance on settlements has impeded the possibility of a two-state solution by expanding Israeli presence in the West Bank. Furthermore, his approach to security, including military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, has been criticized as heavy-handed and counterproductive to peace efforts. The peace process itself has stagnated under his leadership, with many accusing him of prioritizing Israeli interests over finding a resolution with the Palestinians. Overall, Netanyahu’s policies have created division both domestically and internationally.

Looking ahead, the question arises: what is his strategy to effectively lead Israel? Is Netanyahu prepared to develop a comprehensive plan that combines diplomatic efforts, security measures, and economic policies? Will he prioritize strengthening relationships with key allies, such as the United States, while also working to improve ties with neighboring countries in the Middle East? Is he committed to implementing initiatives to boost Israel’s economy and address social issues within the country? Would he be open to spearheading a multifaceted plan aimed at ensuring Israel’s security and prosperity in the years ahead? Ultimately, is Netanyahu prepared to lead, follow, or step aside for the greater good?

♦Publisher  and Professor, Dr. Anthony Obi Ogbo, is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015)  and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us

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