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A surge of Black women and young people registering to vote in Pennsylvania spells trouble for Trump

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New voter registrations surged among Black women and young people in Pennsylvania when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to newly released data.

In the week that Joe Biden announced he would not run for re-election, new registrations increased by 262 per cent among Black women under 30 compared to the same week in 2020.

Registrations among Black voters increased by 110 per cent, and among voters under 30 years old by 59 per cent, also compared to the same week in 2020.

All of those demographic groups lean heavily towards voting for Democrats .

The new data, shared with The Independent by Democratic political data firm TargetSmart, is likely to provide a significant boost to the Harris campaign in the must-win state.

Similar trends are showing up in other swing states, too .

It is the first voter registration data from the state to be released after the week of July 21, when Harris became the presumptive nominee, and may signal a shift in the race that is not yet showing in polls.

Current polling shows a virtual dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that Biden won by a little over 80,000 votes to clinch victory.

While the raw numbers of new voters may only number in the thousands, they show an enthusiasm among traditional Democratic voting groups that could be game-changing, according to Tom Bonier, a veteran Democratic political strategist and senior advisor to TargetSmart.

“The big question we’re all trying to answer is who’s going to turn out, where the energy lies, and if there’s an asymmetrical distribution of enthusiasm between the parties,” he told The Independent.

“This data is suggesting that women, younger voters, voters of color, and then especially younger women of color are going to vote at a much higher rate than they did in 2020, and that’s where you’re talking about a significant potential impact on the outcome of this election,” he added.

Pennsylvania does not include demographic information on its voter registration files, but TargetSmart matches identifying data on the files with consumer data from marketing firms to produce a breakdown model.

The firm produced a similar breakdown before the 2018 midterms that correctly predicted a large increase in the number of young voters, which contributed to the Democratic Party’s “ blue wave ” victory that year.

The new data comes as volunteers for the Harris campaign are telling a similar story across Pennsylvania.

Craig Robertson, a campaign volunteer from Lancaster County, in Pennsylvania, told The Independent this week that his area had seen a wave of young volunteers reaching out to the campaign.

“Just in our district, since Kamala took over at the top of the ticket, we’ve had almost three dozen additional volunteers skewed very much towards the younger people,” he said.

Molly McKitterick, a Democrat and former journalist also from Lancaster, said she had seen the same thing.

“I think one of the things that has not been factored into the polls is all these new people that are being registered, they are all women and young people,” she said outside of a campaign stop by vice presidential candidate Tim Walz in the town.

“So I just think we’re not seeing the true effects yet,” she added.

The importance of Pennsylvania to both campaigns has seen an avalanche of advertising spending. Democrats have spent $114 million statewide this year , while Republicans have spent $102 million.

The Harris campaign has focused heavily on running up the margins in rural, stubbornly pro-Trump areas of the state. It has opened 50 campaign offices across the state, 16 of which are in counties that Trump won by double digits in 2016.

While the polls may not be able to tell the whole story, they have shown a remarkable improvement in the Democratic Party’s prospects in Pennsylvania since Harris took over as the nominee. Harris improved upon Biden’s polling average by nearly four points in a little over a month. Crucially, the improvements for Harris are appearing in the very same groups that Biden struggled with, namely young voters and voters of color.

Bonier said that the impact of the spike in voter registrations showed that the Democrats are now running a different campaign.

“One of the main reasons Biden was lagging in the polls was because he wasn’t getting the sort of support or enthusiasm Democratic candidates historically have gotten from younger voters and voters of color. That was his biggest deficiency,” he said. “To see an immediate reaction to Vice President Harris, where exactly those voters who were the most problematic for the Biden campaign are suddenly rallying with registration rates? That doesn’t have a precedent that I’m aware of, and it is a very good sign for the Harris campaign.”

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Amanpour: Melania Trump’s ‘mainstream media’ remark is ‘dangerous’

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CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour is chastising former first lady Melania Trump over comments she made attacking the mainstream media in a recent interview.

“Mrs Trump is mistaken, political violence is not the fault of the ‘mainstream media’ and I wish she would take back this false and dangerous accusation,” Amanpour wrote in a social media post Friday morning.

The CNN anchor was referencing an interview Trump gave on Fox News a day earlier.

When asked about the recent assassination attempts against her husband, the former first lady called it “really shocking that all this egregious violence goes against my husband.”

“Especially that we hear the leaders from the opposition party and mainstream media branding him as a threat to democracy, calling him vile names,” she said. “They only fueling a toxic atmosphere and giving power all of these people that they want to do harm to him. This needs to stop. This needs to stop. The country needs to unite.”

Amanpour’s post was first highlighted by Mediaite.

Trump’s sit-down was the first interview she had granted to a major media outlet in more than two years, and it came as she was promoting a new book.

Former President Trump and his allies regularly attack the mainstream media, singling out CNN in many cases as “fake news” and “the enemy of the people.”

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Hurricane Helene kills at least 44 and causes havoc across the Southeast

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(AP) — Hurricane Helene left an enormous path of destruction across Florida and the southeastern U.S. on Friday, killing at least 44 people, snapping towering oaks like twigs and tearing apart homes as rescue crews launched desperate missions to save people from floodwaters.

Among those killed were three firefighters, a woman and her 1-month-old twins, and an 89-year-old woman whose house was struck by a falling tree. According to an Associated Press tally, the deaths occurred in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.

The Category 4 hurricane knocked out power to some hospitals in southern Georgia, and Gov. Brian Kemp said authorities had to use chainsaws to clear debris and open up roads. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 kph) when it made landfall late Thursday in a sparsely populated region in Florida’s rural Big Bend area, home to fishing villages and vacation hideaways where the state’s panhandle and peninsula meet.

Moody’s Analytics said it expects $15 billion to $26 billion in property damage.

The wreckage extended hundreds of miles northward to northeast Tennessee, where a “ dangerous rescue situation ” by helicopter unfolded after 54 people were moved to the roof of the Unicoi County Hospital as water rapidly flooded the facility. Everyone was rescued and no one was left at the hospital as of late Friday afternoon, Ballad Health said.

In North Carolina, a lake featured in the movie “Dirty Dancing” overtopped a dam and surrounding neighborhoods were evacuated, although there were no immediate concerns it would fail. People also were evacuated from Newport, Tennessee, a city of about 7,000 people, amid concerns about a dam near there, although officials later said the structure had not failed.

Tornadoes hit some areas, including one in Nash County, North Carolina, that critically injured four people.

Atlanta received a record 11.12 inches (28.24 centimeters) of rain in 48 hours, the most the city has seen in a two-day period since record keeping began in 1878, Georgia’s Office of the State Climatologist said on the social platform X. The previous mark of 9.59 inches (24.36 cm) was set in 1886. Some neighborhoods were so badly flooded that only car roofs could be seen poking above the water.

Climate change has exacerbated conditions that allow such storms to thrive, rapidly intensifying in warming waters and turning into powerful cyclones sometimes in a matter of hours.

When Laurie Lilliott pulled onto her street in Dekle Beach, Florida, after Helene plowed through, she couldn’t see the roofline of her home beyond the palm trees. It had collapsed, torn apart by the pounding storm surge, one corner still precariously propped up by a piling.

“It took me a long time to breathe,” Lilliott said.

As she surveyed the damage, her name and phone number were still inked on her arm in permanent marker, an admonition by Taylor County officials to help identify recovered bodies in the storm’s aftermath. The community has taken direct hits from three hurricanes since August 2023.

All five who died in one Florida county were in neighborhoods where residents were told to evacuate, said Bob Gualtieri, the sheriff in Pinellas County in the St. Petersburg area. Some who stayed ended up having to hide in their attics to escape the rising water. He said the death toll could rise as crews go door-to-door in flooded areas.

More deaths were reported in Georgia and the Carolinas, including two South Carolina firefighters and a Georgia firefighter who died when trees struck their trucks.

Video on social media showed sheets of rain and siding coming off buildings in Perry, Florida, near where the storm hit land. A news station showed a home that was overturned, and many communities established curfews.

Also in Perry, the hurricane peeled off the new roof of a church that was replaced after Hurricane Idalia last year.

When the water hit knee-level in Kera O’Neil’s home in Hudson, Florida, she knew it was time to escape.

“There’s a moment where you are thinking, ‘If this water rises above the level of the stove, we are not going to have not much room to breathe,’” she said, recalling how she and her sister waded through chest-deep water with one cat in a plastic carrier and another in a cardboard box.

President Joe Biden said he was praying for survivors, and the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency headed to the area. The agency deployed more than 1,500 workers, and they helped with 400 rescues by late morning.

In Tampa, some areas could be reached only by boat.

Officials urged people who were trapped to call for rescuers and not tread floodwaters, warning they can be dangerous due to live wires, sewage, sharp objects and other debris.

More than 3 million homes and businesses were without power in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas as of late Friday, according to poweroutage.us. The site also showed outages as far north as Ohio and Indiana due to Helene’s rapid northward movement throughout the day.

In Georgia, an electrical utility group warned of “catastrophic” damage to utility infrastructure, with more than 100 high voltage transmission lines damaged. And officials in South Carolina, where more than 40% of customers were without power, said crews had to cut their way through debris just to determine what was still standing in some places.

The hurricane came ashore near the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 20 miles (30 kilometers) northwest of where Idalia hit last year at nearly the same ferocity. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said the damage from Helene appears to be greater than the combined effects of Idalia and Hurricane Debby in August.

“It’s tough, and we understand that. We also understand that this is a resilient state,” DeSantis said at a news conference in storm-damaged St. Pete Beach.

Soon after it crossed over land, Helene weakened to a tropical storm and later a post-tropical cyclone. Forecasters said it continued to produce catastrophic flooding, and some areas received more than a foot of rain.

A mudslide in the Appalachian Mountains washed out part of an interstate highway at the North Carolina-Tennessee state line.

Another slide hit homes in North Carolina and occupants had to wait more than four hours to be rescued, said Ryan Cole, the emergency services assistant director in Buncombe County. His 911 center received more than 3,300 calls in eight hours Friday.

“This is something that we’re going to be dealing with for many days and weeks to come,” Cole said.

Forecasters warned of flooding in North Carolina that could be worse than anything seen in the past century. Evacuations were underway and around 300 roads were closed statewide. The Connecticut Army National Guard sent a helicopter to help.

School districts and universities canceled classes. Florida airports that closed due to the storm reopened Friday. Inspectors were examining bridges and causeways along the Gulf Coast, the state’s transportation secretary said.

Helene also swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, flooding streets and toppling trees as it brushed past the resort city of Cancun this week. It also knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses in western Cuba.

Helene was the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.

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Haitian immigrant group calls for arrest warrants for Trump and Vance in Ohio

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The Haitian Bridge Alliance, a non-profit organization that “provides migrants and immigrants with humanitarian, legal and social services”, filed criminal charges against Donald Trump and JD Vance over their inflammatory, racist remarks about Haitian immigrants. The rhetoric has led to threats of violence in Springfield, Ohio, including more than 30 bomb threats, forced evacuations of schools and government buildings and violence against Haitians in the city .

The filing comes after both the Republican presidential candidate and his running mate made false statements about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, alleging that they were stealing and eating their neighbors’ pets. The charges include disrupting public services, making false alarms, two counts of telecommunications harassment, aggravated menacing, and complicity. Ohio law allows the public to file criminal charges in the same way a prosecutor would. In this case, the Haitian Bridge Alliance is asking the Clark county municipal court to affirm that there is probable cause that Trump and Vance committed the crimes, and to issue arrest warrants for them both.

“Trump and Vance have knowingly spread a false and dangerous narrative by claiming that Springfield, Ohio’s Haitian community is criminally killing and eating neighbors’ dogs and cats, and killing and eating geese,” the affidavit reads. “They accused Springfield’s Haitians of bearing deadly disease. They repeated such lies during the presidential debate, at campaign rallies, during interviews on national television, and on social media.”

Trump continued perpetuating the statements even after they had been confirmed to be false , while Vance recently remarked that he was willing to “create stories” for political gain.

They continued to repeat what the filing calls an “orchestrated … campaign of lies” that “spread a false narrative that Haitians in Springfield are a danger”.

“Many public institutions have been forced to evacuate, and vital local resources were diverted to investigate the barrage of threats to the community,” the filing reads.

Despite the public nature of Trump and Vance’s claims, local prosecutors have failed to take any action. But because the criminal charges were filed by citizens, a prosecuting attorney will be obligated to make a public decision.

Trump and Vance, the US senator from Ohio, have indicated that they may travel to Springfield. The filing asks the court to make a decision prior to their arrival.

“This should be done before Trump fulfills his threat to visit Springfield – despite Mayor Rob Rue’s request that he not do so – so that he may be arrested upon arrival for his criminal acts,” the affidavit reads.

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