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A surge of Black women and young people registering to vote in Pennsylvania spells trouble for Trump

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9 months ago

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New voter registrations surged among Black women and young people in Pennsylvania when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to newly released data.

In the week that Joe Biden announced he would not run for re-election, new registrations increased by 262 per cent among Black women under 30 compared to the same week in 2020.

Registrations among Black voters increased by 110 per cent, and among voters under 30 years old by 59 per cent, also compared to the same week in 2020.

All of those demographic groups lean heavily towards voting for Democrats .

The new data, shared with The Independent by Democratic political data firm TargetSmart, is likely to provide a significant boost to the Harris campaign in the must-win state.

Similar trends are showing up in other swing states, too .

It is the first voter registration data from the state to be released after the week of July 21, when Harris became the presumptive nominee, and may signal a shift in the race that is not yet showing in polls.

Current polling shows a virtual dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that Biden won by a little over 80,000 votes to clinch victory.

While the raw numbers of new voters may only number in the thousands, they show an enthusiasm among traditional Democratic voting groups that could be game-changing, according to Tom Bonier, a veteran Democratic political strategist and senior advisor to TargetSmart.

“The big question we’re all trying to answer is who’s going to turn out, where the energy lies, and if there’s an asymmetrical distribution of enthusiasm between the parties,” he told The Independent.

“This data is suggesting that women, younger voters, voters of color, and then especially younger women of color are going to vote at a much higher rate than they did in 2020, and that’s where you’re talking about a significant potential impact on the outcome of this election,” he added.

Pennsylvania does not include demographic information on its voter registration files, but TargetSmart matches identifying data on the files with consumer data from marketing firms to produce a breakdown model.

The firm produced a similar breakdown before the 2018 midterms that correctly predicted a large increase in the number of young voters, which contributed to the Democratic Party’s “ blue wave ” victory that year.

The new data comes as volunteers for the Harris campaign are telling a similar story across Pennsylvania.

Craig Robertson, a campaign volunteer from Lancaster County, in Pennsylvania, told The Independent this week that his area had seen a wave of young volunteers reaching out to the campaign.

“Just in our district, since Kamala took over at the top of the ticket, we’ve had almost three dozen additional volunteers skewed very much towards the younger people,” he said.

Molly McKitterick, a Democrat and former journalist also from Lancaster, said she had seen the same thing.

“I think one of the things that has not been factored into the polls is all these new people that are being registered, they are all women and young people,” she said outside of a campaign stop by vice presidential candidate Tim Walz in the town.

“So I just think we’re not seeing the true effects yet,” she added.

The importance of Pennsylvania to both campaigns has seen an avalanche of advertising spending. Democrats have spent $114 million statewide this year , while Republicans have spent $102 million.

The Harris campaign has focused heavily on running up the margins in rural, stubbornly pro-Trump areas of the state. It has opened 50 campaign offices across the state, 16 of which are in counties that Trump won by double digits in 2016.

While the polls may not be able to tell the whole story, they have shown a remarkable improvement in the Democratic Party’s prospects in Pennsylvania since Harris took over as the nominee. Harris improved upon Biden’s polling average by nearly four points in a little over a month. Crucially, the improvements for Harris are appearing in the very same groups that Biden struggled with, namely young voters and voters of color.

Bonier said that the impact of the spike in voter registrations showed that the Democrats are now running a different campaign.

“One of the main reasons Biden was lagging in the polls was because he wasn’t getting the sort of support or enthusiasm Democratic candidates historically have gotten from younger voters and voters of color. That was his biggest deficiency,” he said. “To see an immediate reaction to Vice President Harris, where exactly those voters who were the most problematic for the Biden campaign are suddenly rallying with registration rates? That doesn’t have a precedent that I’m aware of, and it is a very good sign for the Harris campaign.”

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Huge – Judge blocks Trump’s election executive order

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2 days ago

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June 13, 2025

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A federal judge on Friday blocked President Donald Trump’s attempt to overhaul elections in the U.S., siding with a group of Democratic state attorneys general who challenged the effort as unconstitutional.

The Republican president’s March 25 executive order sought to compel officials to require documentary proof of citizenship for everyone registering to vote for federal elections, accept only mailed ballots received by Election Day and condition federal election grant funding on states adhering to the new ballot deadline.

The attorneys general said the directive “usurps the States’ constitutional power and seeks to amend election law by fiat.” The White House defended the order as “standing up for free, fair and honest elections” and called proof of citizenship a “commonsense” requirement.

Judge Denise J. Casper of the U.S. District Court in Massachusetts said in Friday’s order that the states had a likelihood of success as to their legal challenges.

“The Constitution does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Casper wrote.

Casper also noted that, when it comes to citizenship, “there is no dispute (nor could there be) that U.S. citizenship is required to vote in federal elections and the federal voter registration forms require attestation of citizenship.”

Casper cited arguments made by the states that the requirements would “burden the States with significant efforts and substantial costs” to update procedures.

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Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites and its top military leaders. Iran retaliates with drones

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2 days ago

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June 13, 2025

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel launched a blistering attack on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure Friday, deploying warplanes and drones smuggled into the country to target key facilities and kill top generals and scientists — a barrage it said was necessary before its adversary got any closer to building an atomic weapon.

The operation raised the potential for all-out war between the countries and propelled the region, already on edge, into even greater upheaval.

Iran quickly retaliated, sending a swarm of drones at Israel as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of “severe punishment.” Iran had been censured by the U.N.’s atomic watchdog a day earlier for not complying with obligations meant to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.

Israel had long threatened such a strike, and successive American administrations had sought to prevent it, fearing it would ignite a wider conflict across the Middle East and possibly be ineffective at destroying Iran’s dispersed and hardened nuclear program.

But a confluence of developments triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack and the election of President Donald Trump created the conditions that allowed Israel to finally follow through on its threats.

Israel had told the Trump administration that the large-scale attacks were coming, officials in the U.S. and Israel said on condition of anonymity to describe private diplomatic discussions.

On Wednesday, the U.S. pulled some American diplomats from Iraq’s capital and offered voluntary evacuations for the families of U.S. troops in the wider Middle East. On Friday, the U.S. began shifting military resources, including ships, in the region as Israel prepared for more retaliation, two U.S. officials said.

Countries in the region condemned Israel’s attack, while leaders around the globe called for immediate deescalation from both sides. Iran asked for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

Israel’s military said about 200 aircraft were involved in the initial attack on about 100 targets. Its Mossad spy agency positioned explosive drones and precision weapons inside Iran ahead of time, and used them to target Iranian air defenses and missile launchers near Tehran, according to two security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It was not possible to independently confirm the officials’ claims.

Among the key sites Israel attacked was Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz, where black smoke could be seen rising into the air. Israel also said it destroyed dozens of radar installations and surface-to-air missile launchers in western Iran.

Israel military spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said the Natanz facility was “significantly damaged” and that the operation was “still in the beginning.”

Among those killed were three of Iran’s top military leaders: one who oversaw the entire armed forces, Gen. Mohammad Bagheri; one who led the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Hossein Salami; and the head of the Guard’s ballistic missile program, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Iran confirmed all three deaths, significant blows its governing theocracy that will complicate efforts to retaliate. Khamenei said other top military officials and scientists were also killed.

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700 Marines Sent to Los Angeles as Riots Escalate, Trump Administration Confirms

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2 days ago

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June 13, 2025

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The U.S. military is set to temporarily deploy about 700 Marines to Los Angeles while additional National Guard troops arrive in the city, a U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters on Monday. The deployment comes as the city enters its fourth day of protests over President Donald Trump‘s immigration enforcement policies.

The Trump administration has pledged to carry out the largest mass deportation in U.S. history and has conducted numerous Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids, some of which have swept up individuals with proper documentation.

Trump announced on Saturday evening that he had authorized the mobilization of 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles after reported violence against law enforcement, specifically, ICE agents carrying out deportation raids in the city.

While the raids are following legal directive from federal authorities, protests have erupted amid reports that detainees were being held in the basement of a federal building. ICE denied these allegations, with a spokesperson previously telling Newsweek the agency “categorically refutes the assertions made by immigration activists in Los Angeles.”

Early on, some protesters threw rocks at officers, with one allegedly throwing a Molotov cocktail, and burning items in the streets. Police responded with tear gas.

The clashes highlight deepening conflicts between sanctuary jurisdictions and federal immigration policy, as Trump has implemented sweeping changes through executive orders and utilized the wartime Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to expand deportation authority.

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