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Polling expert who has correctly called US elections for 40 years says Kamala will win
Allan Lichtman , the American political historian known as the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House .
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in on Thursday.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
The professor, who has taught at the American University in Washington DC since 1973, has correctly called the winner of US presidential races over the last 40 years – he did not foresee George W Bush narrowly beating Al Gore in 2000 and also wrongly believed Donald Trump would take the popular vote in 2016 but has otherwise been unerring.
Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year in order to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient discontent among voters to allow a rival to pip them at the post.
Lichtman’s approach looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their tenure and the comparative charisma of the two candidates, in order to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.
If the administration in power achieves six or more “true” gradings, its candidate is expected to win – any fewer and their challenger is likely to come out on top.
In his explanatory video for the NYT , the professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently yield “true” answers, suggesting a Harris triumph and another four years in government for the Democrats.
Just three of the keys are definitively “false” but two more could flip that way, he said, although even if they did, five would still not be a sufficient total to deliver a win for the Republican ticket.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said.
“The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza , which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Speaking to Fox 5 Washington DC , Professor Lichtman further explained that Joe Biden ’s decision to stand aside in the wake of his disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June has proven a pivotal moment for the 2024 race.
“Democrats finally got a spine and got smart and united around Harris,” he explained.
“That avoided the loss of the party contest key. They already lost one key, the incumbency key, obviously, but to lose both of them is a near-fatal combination. So that made a huge difference.
“The other thing: I think Harris has had a positive effect on a couple of other keys. I think she contributed to the fizzling of the Robert F Kennedy Jr campaign since voters no longer have to choose between two old white guys. I hate to say that being an old white guy myself!
“And, secondly, I think she contributed to the dampening of major protests because Biden, the policymaker, was no longer out front.”
Asked whether anything could yet alter Trump’s fortunes, the professor answered: “Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history.”
According to the latest national polling, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump on 47 per cent of the vote to 43 per cent, although the candidates appear to be tied in three key battleground states: Pennsylvania , Nevada and Georgia .
The Democrat meanwhile has the lead in two more potentially crucial swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin , while the Republican former president has the advantage in Arizona .
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In a bid to address rising public concerns and social media speculations about taxation in Enugu State, the Executive Chairman of the Enugu State Internal Revenue Service (ESIRS), Emmanuel Nnamani, has provided clarifications on the government’s tax policies. During a press briefing in Enugu, Nnamani dismissed what he described as “false and misleading claims” and reassured residents that the government’s fiscal operations are firmly rooted in law, transparency, and public good.
Clarifying Misinformation and Affirming Legality
Nnamani opened the session by stressing that no taxes or levies in Enugu State are imposed outside the provisions of the law. “Taxes and revenues in Enugu State remain within the limits of the law. We do not impose any levies outside what the law permits,” he stated, pointing to the Personal Income Tax Act (as amended) as the guiding legal framework.
He explained that the ESIRS collects personal income tax through two lawful means: Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) for those in formal employment, and Direct Assessment for informal sector workers. While compliance among salaried workers has been largely smooth, the agency sometimes employs legal enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance among self-employed individuals.
Formalising the Informal Sector
A key challenge, he noted, has been bringing the informal sector—especially market traders and transport operators—into the formal tax net. Upon assuming office, his administration discovered that an overwhelming 99% of informal sector actors were not remitting taxes to the state, largely due to the disruptive influence of non-state actors engaged in illegal collections.
In response, the government introduced a consolidated ₦36,000 annual levy for market traders. This amount, payable between January and March, covers all relevant state-level charges, including those by the Enugu State Waste Management Agency (ESWAMA), Enugu State Structures for Signage and Advertisement Agency (ENSSAA), storage fees, and business premises levies. “Once this amount is paid between January and March, the trader owes nothing else for that year,” Nnamani clarified. Traders who fail to pay by March 31 are subject to enforcement.
For street vendors operating outside structured markets, an annual levy of ₦30,000 applies, with ESWAMA charges handled separately. Transport operators such as Okada riders, Keke drivers, minibuses, tankers, and trucks pay via a daily ticketing system.
A Human-Faced Approach to Enforcement
Although the law allows for a 10% penalty on unpaid tax and an interest charge tied to the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Rate of 27.5%, Nnamani disclosed that the state has adopted a softer, pro-business approach. Instead of the full punitive charges, a flat ₦3,000 penalty is applied in most informal sector cases to promote ease of doing business and encourage voluntary compliance.
Taxation and the Cost of Rent
Addressing growing concerns over rising rent, Nnamani rejected claims linking the trend to state tax policies. He described the issue as a national challenge influenced by supply and demand, rather than fiscal policy.
Citing personal experiences dating back to 2015, he observed that a shift in private development preference – from rental apartments to gated residential estates – has contributed to the housing squeeze. “If we had more high-rise buildings, rent would drop,” he noted. The state government, he added, is taking proactive steps through the Ministry of Housing and Housing Development Corporation to build mass housing and student hostels near institutions like ESUT and IMT, freeing up central city housing and helping moderate rents.
Technology, Transparency, and Trust
In line with its commitment to transparency and digital innovation, the ESIRS has launched a tax calculator on its official portal – www.irs.en.gov.ng – allowing residents to compute their taxes with ease and clarity. “This is about transparency and giving our people confidence,” he said, inviting residents to compare Enugu’s tools with those in more advanced states like Lagos.
Understanding the Cost of Development
Responding to concerns that Enugu has become one of Nigeria’s most expensive states, Nnamani acknowledged the perception but clarified that the temporary inflation is largely demand-driven. With Enugu undertaking widespread infrastructural renewal – including smart schools, primary health centres, and hospitality infrastructure – the surge in construction activity has led to increased demand for building materials like granite and rods, which are sourced from other states.
“Once these projects are completed, demand will drop, and prices will stabilise,” he assured. He emphasised that the projects are visible testaments to what taxpayers’ money can achieve when properly managed.
A Call for Mutual Understanding and Civic Partnership
More than a tax clarification, Nnamani’s address served as a reminder of the symbiotic relationship between citizens and government. He appealed for public understanding, noting that when citizens fulfil their tax obligations, the government can, in turn, provide essential services and infrastructure that uplift everyone.
His message was clear: responsible taxation, managed transparently and invested wisely, is the bedrock of sustainable development. From roads to schools and healthcare to housing, Enugu State is demonstrating how taxpayers’ money, when efficiently deployed, can improve lives and build the future.
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When it comes to international culinary gems and cultures across the United States, the city of Houston is counted among one of the best places to experience an authentic taste of every corner of the world.
On the evening of Friday, August 8th, Houstonians will have a chance to engage all of their senses into the world of real West African flavors at Grubido’s ‘Art of Fufu’ Food & Art Show, a free culinary and art experience taking place at Flatland Gallery (1709 Westheimer Rd.) in Montrose.
Curated by Grubido founder and Culinary Cultural Curator Kavachi Ukegbu, the annual celebration of west African cuisine and artistry will once again open its doors to patrons to witness the delights of creating and eating Fufu (a starchy, dough-like food that is a staple in many West and Central African countries), and its delicious and diverse pairings of soups and stews that originate from various parts of the continent, and uniquely compliment the beloved food staple as a complete meal. The event will also celebrate the observance of National Fufu Day in the United States on August 11th.
From the process of how different types of fufu are grown and manufactured, to the careful guidance on properly preparing the fufu to be eaten, the ‘Art of Fufu’ Food & Art showcase will give patrons a full circle perspective and appreciation for the food staple that has gained global popularity on social media and in many countries around the world.
Attendees will be treated to fufu and soup samples, live Afrobeats music, an impressive display of fufu inspired artwork and collectables from over the years, and the opportunity to purchase Grubido food products, t-shirts, and the official The Art of Fufu cookbook. Originally published and released by Chef Kavach in 2021, “The Art of Fufu is a fascinating and informative guide to fufu, one of the most delicious and beloved staple foods of West Africans.” All cookbook purchases at the event will be signed by Chef Kavachi.
Entry for this event is free to all guests, but RSVP is strictly required in advance. To RSVP for the upcoming Art of Fufu Food & Art show, please visit the official website online at www.TheArtofFufu.com, or contact Grubido at (832) 818-6847.
The Art of Fufu Cookbook is a culinary treasure that explores the flavors, techniques, and cultural significance of fufu. It is a testament to the artistry of West African cuisine and serves as a guide for those seeking to immerse themselves in this beloved dish.
For more information, please visit www.theartoffufu.com & www.artoffufu.com
- Houston and Owerri Community Mourn the Passing of Beloved Icon, Lawrence Mike Obinna Anozie - October 3, 2025
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Leadership across nations is shaped not only by policies but by the quality of the individuals at the helm. History has shown that the most transformative leaders often draw from deep wells of ethical, philosophical, and strategic thought. Yet, in many African countries—and Nigeria in particular—there appears to be a crisis in the kind of men elevated to govern. This deficit is not merely political; it is intellectual, philosophical, and deeply structural.
There is a compelling correlation between the absence of foundational wisdom and the type of leaders Nigeria consistently produces. Compared to their counterparts in other parts of the world, Nigerian leaders often appear fundamentally unprepared to govern societies in ways that foster justice, progress, or stability.
Consider the Middle East—nations like the UAE and Qatar—where governance is often rooted in Islamic principles. While these societies are not without flaws, their leaders have harnessed religious teachings as frameworks for nation-building, modern infrastructure, and citizen welfare. Ironically, many of Nigeria’s military and political leaders also profess Islam, yet the application of its ethical standards in public governance is nearly non-existent. This raises a troubling question: is the practice of religion in African politics largely symbolic, devoid of actionable moral guidance?
Take China as another case study. In the last four decades, China’s leadership has lifted over 800 million people out of poverty—an unprecedented feat in human history. While authoritarian in structure, China’s model demonstrates a deep philosophical commitment to collective progress, discipline, and strategic long-term planning. In Western democracies, especially post-World War II, leaders often emerged with strong academic backgrounds in philosophy, economics, or history—disciplines that sharpen the mind and cultivate vision.
In stark contrast, African leaders—particularly in Nigeria—are more often preoccupied with short-term political survival than long-term national transformation. Their legacy is frequently one of mismanagement, unsustainable debt, and structural decay. Nigeria, for example, has accumulated foreign loans that could take generations to repay, yet there is little visible infrastructure or social development to justify such liabilities. Inflation erodes wages, and basic public services remain in collapse. This cycle repeats because those in power often lack not just technical competence, but the moral and intellectual depth to lead a modern nation.
At the heart of the crisis is a lack of philosophical inquiry. Philosophy teaches reasoning, ethics, and the nature of justice—skills that are essential for public leadership. Nigerian leaders, by and large, are disconnected from such traditions. Many have never seriously engaged with political theory, ethical discourse, or economic philosophy. Without this grounding, leadership becomes a matter of brute power, not enlightened governance.
The crisis of leadership in Africa is not solely one of corruption or bad policy—it is one of intellectual emptiness. Until African nations, especially Nigeria, begin to value and cultivate leaders who are intellectually rigorous and philosophically grounded, the continent will remain caught in cycles of poverty and poor governance. True leadership requires more than charisma or military rank—it demands the wisdom to govern a society with justice, vision, and moral clarity. Without this, the future remains perilously fragile.
♦ Dominic Ikeogu is a social and political commentator based in Minneapolis, USA.
- Houston and Owerri Community Mourn the Passing of Beloved Icon, Lawrence Mike Obinna Anozie - October 3, 2025
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- The Leadership Deficit: Why African Governance Lacks Philosophical Grounding - July 30, 2025
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