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Nigeria and Angola responsible for almost half of OPEC+ oil supply gap – Analysis

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LONDON/LAGOS (Reuters) – Almost half the shortfall in planned oil supply by OPEC and its allies is down to Nigeria and Angola, data seen by Reuters shows, reflecting a number of factors including moves by Western oil majors away from African projects.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, pumped 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) – equal to 1.5% of world supply – below its target in March, the OPEC+ figures seen by Reuters show.

According to the figures, Angola was responsible for almost 300,000 bpd of the OPEC+ supply shortfall while Nigeria was pumping almost 400,000 bpd below target. The war in Ukraine has also hit Russia’s oil trading and its output was about 300,000 bpd short of its March supply target.

The OPEC+ shortfall is one of the reasons global oil prices hit a 14-year high in March above $139 a barrel and it has prompted calls by the United States and other consumers for producers to pump more.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, has repeatedly rebuffed the calls – and one contributing factor is simply that some of its members don’t have oil available to pump.

In OPEC’s view, investment cuts after oil prices collapsed in 2015-2016 due to oversupply, along with a growing focus by investors on economic, social and governance (ESG) issues, have led to a shortfall in the spending needed to meet demand.

“There was massive underinvestment in the industry over the years, further complicated by the effect of ESG,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters.

“There was a contraction of 25% in 2015 and 2016 – unprecedented. There was no significant recovery before 2020, when we registered a 30% contraction in investments in the industry,” he said.

Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show there was no significant increase in investment in global oil and gas exploration and production during 2017-2019 – followed by a 32% plunge in 2020.

International oil companies are gradually pulling out of Nigeria’s onshore oil production, although they continue to invest in its vast offshore oil and gas resources, where costs remain competitive.

Shell, which helped transform Nigeria into a leading producer since the 1930s, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about investment and the reasons for the decline in Nigerian output.

GULF PRODUCERS BOOST INVESTMENT

OPEC’s Gulf producers led by Saudi Arabia are largely meeting their OPEC+ targets, and OPEC sources say their relative lack of dependence on outside investors has helped.

“The investment shortfall affected more the countries where reliance on foreign investment is more prominent,” an OPEC+ source from a Gulf producer said.

IEA figures show that in 2019, final investment decisions (FIDs) affecting over eight times more crude reserves in the Middle East were taken than those affecting African reserves.

Middle East approvals were also consistently higher from 2011 through 2018.

“Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are increasing investment and that to some extent can help offset declines elsewhere,” said Audun Martinsen, analyst at Rystad Energy.

“It also highlights why OPEC is not intervening more because it is quite hard for OPEC to increase production overnight,” Martinsen said.

Angolan state oil company Sonangol and Nigeria’s state oil firm NNPC did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment on their production decline or the reasons for it.

According to a 2021 report from the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation or APICORP, Middle East and North African producers were still expected to boost energy investment to $805 billion in 2021-2025 – up $13 billion on the previous year’s five-year outlook, despite the impact of the pandemic.

In February, Saudi Arabia-based APICORP said it expected rising oil and gas prices to further support energy investment in the region.

TOO MUCH RISK

While Western majors are increasingly focusing on the energy transition and selling oil assets, they remain big producers in Africa. Big Western companies are responsible for 40% of output in Nigeria and 60% in Angola, according to Rystad.

Rystad sees some potential for new investment in Nigeria and Angola but projects remain “too expensive” for the majors.

“Since 2015 the majors have been focusing on cost and developing things in Africa has been too much of a risk with cost overruns,” Rystad’s Martinsen said. “It’s not really part of their key focus any longer.”

Angolan production has fallen 50% since 2015 and output is down by about 30% over the same period in Nigeria, he said. In Nigeria production is expected to grow slightly by 200,000 bpd in the coming years, but then decline again after 2024.

Shell said last month that oil spills arising from pipeline tapping in the Niger Delta doubled in 2021 to the highest since 2016.

Underlining the extent of the decline, exports of key Nigerian crude grade Bonny Light have fallen to just two or three cargoes a month from about eight or nine previously as a result of escalating oil theft.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Julia Payne, Ron Bousso, Ahmad Ghaddar and Maha El Dahan. Additional reporting by Noah Browning; Graphics by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by David Clarke)

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Black Family Loses Out on Discrimination Lawsuit Over Investment Property 

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The Houstonian black real estate investors filed the federal lawsuit after they said they were prohibited from buying condos in a community advertised to Asian buyers.

Last Wednesday, the racial discrimination lawsuit filed by three Black real estate investors in Texas was dismissed “without the option to refile.”

“The decision hinged less on whether the family had been discriminated against than whether the Fair Housing Act, which prohibits discriminating in the ‘sale or rental of a dwelling,’ had been violated,” the Houston Chronicle reports.

In 2022, James Ra-Amari and his wife Misty Ra-Amari, and Misty’s sister Rosemary Afful filed a civil lawsuit in federal court against realtor Josie Lin, “Lin’s company, UMRE; Grand West Condominiums; Grand West Residential Condominium Association, Inc.; United Property Management; and RE/MAX and EXP Reality, two real estate brokerages.”

The three investors purported that Lin “refused them the option to purchase three condominiums in a newly constructed community. They say that they were denied the units because of their race.”

The Ra-Amaris and Afful sought “compensatory, special, and punitive damages, economic damages for alleged violation of the Fair Housing Act, and infliction of emotional distress.”

According to the civil lawsuit, the condos’ marketing materials were “advertised as ‘…a new option for a safe and simple Asian life’ and [said], ‘Katy Asian town is within walking distance.’”

In addition, there was allegedly an “information packet [that] marketed the complex as a ‘new option for Chinese and Asian communities.’”

The suit also claimed that Lin told the three real estate investors that “all the current owners were personal friends and knew each other.”

The Black family’s argument: Lin’s comments in concert with the promotional materials explicitly targeting “‘Asian communities’ established discrimination.”

But the judge dismissed many of the defendants from the suit, citing that the Ra-Amaris and Afful failed to establish a business relationship between themselves and Lin or that Lin was an agent “acting on their behalf.”

The defendants filed a motion to dismiss the case in its entirety, arguing semantics, pointing out that “a condo is only a ‘dwelling’ if the buyer planned to occupy it, and the family had identified themselves instead as investors in court documents. Additionally, they argued that the family had never indicated in court documents that they had actually made an offer.”

United States District Judge David Hittner largely sided with the defendant’s assertions that the Black family had failed to demonstrate they even “had a case.”

In a written statement, the plaintiffs’ attorney Justin Moore said “This case highlights the ongoing challenges and importance of the Fair Housing Act.”

“Our stance is that real estate investment has historically been a pathway for many Americans to build wealth, and our clients’ endeavors align with this tradition,” Moore continued. “Property at its essence is an investment…Your home is an investment whether you live in it or not.”

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Empowerment Conference ULTRA 2024 Returns to Houston February 3rd

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HOUSTON, Texas (January 22nd, 2024) – This coming February, Houstonians are invited to ring in the second month of the year with an empowerment conference that aims to keep attendees on track, accountable, and fully engaged to exceed their personal goals in 2024. The ULTRA Conference 2024 (presented by Ultrashift, Inc., a Houston-area based non-profit organization, and hosted by leadership practitioner and author Dr. Harry Akintola) will take place on Saturday, February 3rd at ACF Center (2204 Sharpview Drive) in west Houston.

As citizens worldwide continue to merge into the new year and prepare for February, their hopes of maintaining new resolutions and goals for career, financial, spiritual, and physical advancement often begin to see signs of inconsistency and shakiness. For Dr. Akinola, that is often the sweet spot and perfect timing to teach individuals and organizations how to master their minds and consciousness to yield prosperity. Since its inception in 2009, ULTRA Conference has impacted the lives of thousands and has hosted this event in many cities around the world, including South Africa (Johannesburg and Cape Town), the United Kingdom (London), Nigeria (Lagos), and Tanzania (Dar es Salaam).

According to event organizers, “Ultra 2024 promises to be an immersive ‘inspiritainment’ experience, driving home the point that the future is not something to be passively anticipated but actively shaped.” All of this year’s conference speakers and panelists are award-winning presenters and specialists from across various industries. Presenters and panelists for this year’s conference include keynote speaker and host Dr. Harry Akinola, JP Morgan Chase Head of CCB Talent Roti Balogun, Zeitios AI/ML Consulting CEO Iyanuoluwa Odebode, Ph.D, Wazobia Market Founder & CEO Tunde Fasina, Hampton HGDS Real Estate Investment Trust CEO Candra Brown, Fairdale Realty & Gazette Mortgage President & CEO Victor Lofinmakin, and Transformational Coach Jimi Tewe.

The conference will be sanctioned into a five-part session each dedicated to a range of topics and interactive activities, including Future-Ready Skills (exploring the critical skills necessary for thriving in tomorrow’s job market and how to acquire them), Embracing AI (a deep dive into practical strategies for integrating artificial intelligence into your business model and career, ensuring you stay ahead of the technological curve), Local & Global Business Strategies (gaining  invaluable insights into Houston’s dynamic business environment as a model for development and learning how to leverage  these strategies on a global scale), Citizenry in Action (learning how civic engagement and personal discipline can become powerful tools for societal change and individual success), Diverse Intelligence (discover how balancing the four intelligences can lead to a more satisfying and successful life), with strategic interactive breakout and networking sessions integrated into all  phases of the conference experience.

As an accomplished corporate executive who has headed up several learning and leadership development organizations in many multinational firms (including Standard Bank, Puma Energy and Chase Bank where he currently serves as Executive Director – Head of Talent, Business Banking), Dr. Akinola hopes that individuals will gain momentum and discipline to follow through on every endeavor set for their lives. “Like a butterfly’s journey from larva to flight, you cannot attain or achieve without first transforming. Ultra 2024 – Re-Imagine Your Future is more than an inspirational and educational conference,” said Dr. Akinola. “It’s an experience, a catalyst for introspection, a reawakening of thought, and a reset of aspirations, guiding you to become, empowering you to do, to have, and to soar towards your envisioned future.” Registration for this year’s conference is now open to the general public. To learn more about the ULTRA Conference 2024 and to register, please visit the official website online at www.theultrashift.org, or follow Dr. Harry Akinola on Instagram at Harry Akinola (@HarryAkinola)

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Oil prices edge higher amid mixed US cues, Red Sea strikes continue

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Thursday as severe cold weather appeared to have spurred some disruptions in U.S. production, while military action in the Middle East raged on.

But gains in crude were limited by industry data showing an unexpected build in U.S. inventories. While the cold weather caused some production stoppages, it also appeared to have dissuaded travel, which is a key driver of U.S. fuel demand.

Strength in the dollar weighed on oil prices, as traders priced in a smaller chance of early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following stronger-than-expected retail sales data.

Oil prices were also reeling from steep intraday losses on Wednesday, after gross domestic product data from top importer China missed expectations for the fourth quarter. Overall growth in 2023 also barely edged past a government target, indicating sustained economic weakness in the world’s largest oil importer.

Brent oil futures expiring in March rose 0.5% to $78.23 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.6% to $72.90 a barrel by 20:25 ET (01:25 GMT).

Both contracts were trading largely flat so far in 2024, as markets weighed expectations of worsening demand against fears of tighter Middle Eastern supplies. U.S. and UK forces carried out a fresh wave of strikes against the Iran-aligned, Yemen-based Houthi group this week, as the group continued with its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

Oil prices had sharply pared intraday losses on Wednesday after top U.S. oil producing state North Dakota said severely cold weather would see output fall by over 50%- a trend that is likely to dent overall U.S. production, which hit record highs over the past two months.

US oil inventories unexpectedly rise, product stockpiles see sustained builds- API

But severe cold weather in the U.S. appeared to also be eating into demand. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an unexpected build in U.S. inventories over the week to January 12.

A particular point of contention was gasoline and distillate inventories logging a third consecutive week of strong gains, highlighting weaker demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer. Cold weather shut down travel across vast swathes of the U.S. over the past two weeks.

The API data usually heralds a similar reading from official inventory data, which is due later on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries released its first monthly report for 2024, slightly earlier than usual amid increased market uncertainty.

The cartel maintained its global oil demand forecast for 2024, and said demand will grow by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025.

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