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Nigeria and Angola responsible for almost half of OPEC+ oil supply gap – Analysis

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LONDON/LAGOS (Reuters) – Almost half the shortfall in planned oil supply by OPEC and its allies is down to Nigeria and Angola, data seen by Reuters shows, reflecting a number of factors including moves by Western oil majors away from African projects.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, pumped 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) – equal to 1.5% of world supply – below its target in March, the OPEC+ figures seen by Reuters show.

According to the figures, Angola was responsible for almost 300,000 bpd of the OPEC+ supply shortfall while Nigeria was pumping almost 400,000 bpd below target. The war in Ukraine has also hit Russia’s oil trading and its output was about 300,000 bpd short of its March supply target.

The OPEC+ shortfall is one of the reasons global oil prices hit a 14-year high in March above $139 a barrel and it has prompted calls by the United States and other consumers for producers to pump more.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, has repeatedly rebuffed the calls – and one contributing factor is simply that some of its members don’t have oil available to pump.

In OPEC’s view, investment cuts after oil prices collapsed in 2015-2016 due to oversupply, along with a growing focus by investors on economic, social and governance (ESG) issues, have led to a shortfall in the spending needed to meet demand.

“There was massive underinvestment in the industry over the years, further complicated by the effect of ESG,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters.

“There was a contraction of 25% in 2015 and 2016 – unprecedented. There was no significant recovery before 2020, when we registered a 30% contraction in investments in the industry,” he said.

Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show there was no significant increase in investment in global oil and gas exploration and production during 2017-2019 – followed by a 32% plunge in 2020.

International oil companies are gradually pulling out of Nigeria’s onshore oil production, although they continue to invest in its vast offshore oil and gas resources, where costs remain competitive.

Shell, which helped transform Nigeria into a leading producer since the 1930s, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about investment and the reasons for the decline in Nigerian output.

GULF PRODUCERS BOOST INVESTMENT

OPEC’s Gulf producers led by Saudi Arabia are largely meeting their OPEC+ targets, and OPEC sources say their relative lack of dependence on outside investors has helped.

“The investment shortfall affected more the countries where reliance on foreign investment is more prominent,” an OPEC+ source from a Gulf producer said.

IEA figures show that in 2019, final investment decisions (FIDs) affecting over eight times more crude reserves in the Middle East were taken than those affecting African reserves.

Middle East approvals were also consistently higher from 2011 through 2018.

“Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are increasing investment and that to some extent can help offset declines elsewhere,” said Audun Martinsen, analyst at Rystad Energy.

“It also highlights why OPEC is not intervening more because it is quite hard for OPEC to increase production overnight,” Martinsen said.

Angolan state oil company Sonangol and Nigeria’s state oil firm NNPC did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment on their production decline or the reasons for it.

According to a 2021 report from the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation or APICORP, Middle East and North African producers were still expected to boost energy investment to $805 billion in 2021-2025 – up $13 billion on the previous year’s five-year outlook, despite the impact of the pandemic.

In February, Saudi Arabia-based APICORP said it expected rising oil and gas prices to further support energy investment in the region.

TOO MUCH RISK

While Western majors are increasingly focusing on the energy transition and selling oil assets, they remain big producers in Africa. Big Western companies are responsible for 40% of output in Nigeria and 60% in Angola, according to Rystad.

Rystad sees some potential for new investment in Nigeria and Angola but projects remain “too expensive” for the majors.

“Since 2015 the majors have been focusing on cost and developing things in Africa has been too much of a risk with cost overruns,” Rystad’s Martinsen said. “It’s not really part of their key focus any longer.”

Angolan production has fallen 50% since 2015 and output is down by about 30% over the same period in Nigeria, he said. In Nigeria production is expected to grow slightly by 200,000 bpd in the coming years, but then decline again after 2024.

Shell said last month that oil spills arising from pipeline tapping in the Niger Delta doubled in 2021 to the highest since 2016.

Underlining the extent of the decline, exports of key Nigerian crude grade Bonny Light have fallen to just two or three cargoes a month from about eight or nine previously as a result of escalating oil theft.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Julia Payne, Ron Bousso, Ahmad Ghaddar and Maha El Dahan. Additional reporting by Noah Browning; Graphics by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by David Clarke)

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Black History

Bernice King’s Redemption Bank is now the first Black-owned in the West

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In 2023, a group of Black investors based in Atlanta agreed to buy a white-owned bank, Holladay Bank & Trust, and convert it into a Black-owned one. The investors included Dr. Bernice A. King, a daughter of civil rights icon Dr. Martin Luther King Jr; Ashley D. Bell, a former White House policy adviser, and former NFL player Dhani Jones.

They planned to rename the Utah-based institution Redemption Bank and said they wanted to provide financial services to Black communities historically underserved by financial institutions while offering online banking services and small business loans.

The deal, which was awaiting regulatory approval, would mark the first time Black investors purchased a non-Black bank, a statement by Redemption Holding Company said at the time. It would also be the first time in American history that an existing commercial bank would become a Black-owned Minority Depository Institution (“MDI”) through acquisition, the statement added.

After two years, Redemption has finally completed its acquisition of Holladay Bank & Trust. It makes it the first time a bank has been owned by a Black-led investment group in the Western U.S., the AP reported this month.

The acquisition got delayed due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, Bell, CEO and chairman of Redemption Holding, told the AP.

“This process has undoubtedly taken longer than any of us anticipated,” Bell said. “However, we are grateful for the diligence of the staff at the FDIC, the leadership of the (American Bankers Association), and the renewed sense of urgency from the new administration this year, all of which helped bring everything together.”

While Bell is the CEO, King is expected to be Redemption Bank’s senior vice president for corporate strategy and serve on the company’s advisory board.

With about $65 million in assets, Redemption Bank will be the first Black-owned bank not physically located within an economically vulnerable community and the first in the Rockies, according to the AP.

It will also be the only one located in the Black-banking desert that stretches from Houston to Los Angeles, the AP added.

The company will further become the 24th Black-owned bank in the nation, termed as Minority Depository Institutions (MDI). MDI is a federal designation for banks and unions that are owned or controlled by minority groups. The most recent MDI was Adelphi Bank, launched in January 2023.

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Africa

Hotel groups Hilton and Marriot announce African expansion plans

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U.S. hotel chains Hilton and Marriott have announced African expansion drives to tap into the continent’s rapid tourism growth.

Rising business and leisure travel on the continent has made it increasingly attractive for multinational companies and Hilton said on Wednesday that it plans to more than triple its African portfolio to more than 160 hotels.

The company plans to enter Angola, Ghana and Benin for the first time while returning to Madagascar and Tanzania, its statement said without providing a specific time horizon for the expansion plans.

Marriott expects to add 50 properties by 2027, it said on Wednesday. Those will include entry into five new countries: Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Mauritania.

The group’s existing African portfolio encompasses nearly 150 properties and 26,000 rooms across 20 countries and 22 brands.

Airlines have also increased their African capacity.

Emirates now offers 161 weekly flights across Africa, recently adding daily services to Entebbe and Addis Ababa. United Airlines launched a direct Washington-Dakar route in May and Delta will begin a seasonal daily flight to Accra in December.

International arrivals to the continent rose 9% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, the United Nations World Tourism Organization says, 16% above the same period of pre-pandemic 2019.

That momentum is translating into economic impact. Tourism accounts for between 3% and 7% of gross domestic product in countries such as Kenya, Morocco and South Africa, and up to 15% in tourism-heavy economies such as Namibia, World Bank and national statistics show.

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Business

AfricanShowcase 2025 Set to Transform Barking Town Centre into a Celebration of African Culture and Commerce

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Barking Town Centre will come alive with the sights, sounds, and flavors of Africa as AfricanShowcase 2025 arrives for a one-day festival spotlighting the continent’s vibrant culture, commerce, and creativity.

Set for Wednesday, August 13, this dynamic event will feature over 30 curated stalls offering authentic African wares—from handwoven textiles and artisan jewelry to gourmet delicacies and unique cultural artefacts. Designed as both a cultural festival and a business platform, AfricanShowcase connects the public, press, and buyers directly with African creators and entrepreneurs.

Festivalgoers can expect a packed lineup of live entertainment, including performances by drummers, dancers, poets, and singers from Gambia, Ghana, and Nigeria. A high-energy runway fashion show will highlight cutting-edge African designers, while interactive workshops will invite participants to try traditional Kente weaving and head wrap styling.

The event also boasts uplifting music by Afrobeats DJs and a local gospel choir, along with a lively cultural procession that will wind through Barking Town Centre.

Sponsored by LemFi, Abfoods, Mr. Fatai Abiola, and 1Accord Living Ltd, the showcase is proudly supported by the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham Council and Town Centre Manager Lianne Douglas.

“AfricanShowcase is more than a market—it’s a celebration of Africa’s rich heritage, a platform for African businesses, and a joyful reminder of the beauty of cultural exchange,” said Ola Mustapha, Founder of Kiskirine Events Ltd.

Launched in Brent in 2003, AfricanShowcase has evolved into a signature event for celebrating African excellence in the UK, drawing crowds from across the capital. The 2025 edition promises a vibrant day of community, connection, and cultural pride.

 

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