It will not be easy to defeat Tinubu and the APC

Let me emphatically state without any ambiguity that for the opposition to make President Tinubu lose grip of Aso Rock in 2027 and force him to the status of a “former president” is a herculean task that requires more than defeating him in polling booths. Anyone who has followed President Tinubu’s political success from Lagos to Abuja will agree that he is a master of Nigerian politics. Therefore, to take power away from him, the opposition members must understand that the hurdle facing them is not child’s play but a huge political combat.

But yes, of course, the alliance of ADC without any doubt is very capable of defeating President Tinubu and sending APC out of Aso Rock, but caution must not be thrown to the wind – members of the party must be self-examining, honest, holistic, and critical in taking decisions without sentiments.

Why Peter Obi is the best choice for the ADC alliance

In all fairness, there are notable political heavyweights in this alliance, but if a square peg must be put in a square hole, considering records and national acceptance, Obi currently is the most popular accepted politician in Nigeria and should be the choice of ADC.

We must say it as it is, Obi is not a perfect human being, but in the annals of Nigerian politics, no one, dead or alive,/has the kind of political records he has, and this has endeared him to the hearts of millions of Nigerians. He is just real and different. Whether he is in a public service or in a private business, Obi has remained who he is: humane, caring, humble, civil, considerate, fair, and incorruptible.

In 2023, many did not give him any chance when he left PDP to join Labour Party, but for his character, competence, and transparency, etc. Nigerians not only followed him as a man of honour, but they also spent their money in his campaign throughout the country. It was a generally held view by the majority that he defeated President Tinubu in 2023, allegedly.

If Obi is not part of this political alignment, the best way I would describe the coalition would be an “old wine in a new bottle”, because the new bottle cannot make the old wine taste differently. There is no one in the alliance that we do not know his/her history and political antecedents. WHILE many of them are desperadoes and manipulators, and the reason we do not have Nigeria Airways and constant electricity, etc., many owe Nigerians an explanation of those stealing our gold, etc., in Zamfara State.

What I dread about the coalition

My fear is that I am constantly seeing the hands of Esau but hearing the voice of Jacob in the alliance. I say so because I have seen mischievous steps selfishly played out that are politically suicidal to the alliance and that will not be good for the interests of all Nigerians.

If Nigerians were to choose who will be the candidate of ADC, I am pretty sure that Obi would have an easy ride, but here only party agents will, and that is where the danger lies. Obi, we all know, is not ready to bribe anyone to vote for him because he sees politics as a service to the people and not a business. Owing to this reason, many say he is stingy, and I was in total shock and disappointed the day I saw Barr. Kenneth Okonkwo reprimanded Obi on national television for the same reason. But it is what it is, and I will leave that for another day. Obi is not a desperate politician, and this is one of the things that has differentiated him from others and why we Nigerians really want him.

I am frightened that Obi may be schemed out as the ADC presidential candidate. But let me re-echo this as a warning. If Mr. Peter Obi does not emerge as the candidate of the coalition or is forced to walk out of the alliance, the coalition becomes toothless, what late veteran football commentator Ernest Okonkwo would have described as “beautiful nonsense”. It will make the participation of ADC in 2027 a mere political exercise that will end in futility as long as the presidential election is concerned. And if, for any reason, Obi agrees to be a running mate to anyone, I will withdraw my support from him and give it to President Tinubu.

Mr. Peter Obi, Sir, you are not ready to buy the agents, and many of the agents seem not ready to vote for you either because of your kind of politics of “I will not give shi shi”. Games are already on. Are you ready for this coalition? Did you consider very well, and the coalition was not a trap for you, Sir? Because members of the alliance know that you are the most acceptable Nigerian politician currently and the only person the majority of Nigerians want. They are consciously aware that without you, they cannot defeat APC and President Tinubu, hence the ploy with the alliance. Furthermore, they know you will not try to influence the conscience of any party agent to vote for you during the primary; therefore, they will take advantage of that and influence the agents against you. Please, Sir, if you feel what I suspect, kindly withdraw from the alliance even before the primary. You are the hope of millions of Nigerians, and anywhere you go, we are sincerely willing to follow you.

Why the coalition should be encouraged

Irrespective of my expressed fear, the coalition is a good one. But let me re-emphasize that the mission of ADC members to wrestle power out of the hands of Mr. President in 2027 is like one going into a lion’s den to take its meat. It will not be easy. To get this accomplished, members of the party must make sacrifices and be willing to do away with selfishness. Mr. President is a man who knows how to compensate and care for those supporting him, like he has done to Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister.

Wike, who may become a victim of his own political arrogance, could be consumed by his overzealousness to be a president one day, and will go to any political extent to make sure that his launch is not taken away from his mouth. And there are many Wikes around Mr. President. The mistake someone like Atiku made was not ensuring that Wike was forced out of the PDP before he left. His continuous stay in PDP is not politically good for ADC’s coalition. I will not be surprised if PDP’s structures are used in supporting APC in 2027 at some point. Consequently, it is a requisite without option that members of the alliance tenaciously combine their resources and strength together for the battle ahead without betraying each other. They must proportionately be prepared to match Mr. President and APC strategy-to-strategy, propaganda-to-propaganda, intimidation-to-intimidation, and force-to-force, etc. That is the only way President Tinubu and the APC could be beaten to submission.

Long, incredible processes an election winner must go through, or else he /she will be declared the loser.

In Nigeria, it absurdly seems like even winning all polling booths in an election is not enough for one to be announced a winner by the electoral umpire INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission). Why? Because there appear to be three stages, the candidates must first struggle with and overcome.

Stage (1): The candidate, his/her political party, and their agents must first of all make sure that the ballot boxes are safely transported from the polling booths to their designated collation centres without being hijacked by thugs or hired hoodlums and swerved with manipulated and stuffed boxes.

Stage (2): They must equally make sure that at the collation centres, the real figures are correctly computed without alteration.

Stage (3) – INEC: Here, the party agents must be very vigilant and ensure that the real figures, deprived of Tippex and cancellation of digits, are actually submitted without extra zeros and numbers added or removed. This becomes crucial in view of what happened in 2023, where INEC’s IReV, for whatever reason, failed to transmit election results from polling booths. This issue must be addressed and avoided so as not to repeat itself.

Remember, once the INEC Chairman announces results and pronounces a winner, one can do nothing but go to court. But the danger is that those factors that induced the announcement of the wrong winner are more likely to also influence courts’ proceedings and sustain what should not be sustained as a final judgment.

Thus, to say that any election winner in Nigerian polling booths who is not well-connected could get announced as a loser by INEC unless a miracle happens, and the most powerful one with political strength and financial influence gets declared winner is a statement past experiences have supported. Whosoever is not willing or who does not have the capacity to go through the processes that influence the final outcome should not bother going into politics, at least for now. It is sad and a very terrible situation, but that is the fact.

If coalition members fail at this juncture to get the electoral system reformed, it is not a good one. And I wonder why they are silent on this crucial point. Though one does not need to be pessimistic, if they fail to ensure that their engineers certify that all BIVAS machines are in good condition before being taken to their various destinations and results transmitted from polling booths, it may not be abstract to say that the election may have already been won and lost even without votes being cast.

Why Obi needs the alliance

In a free and fair election, Obi will clearly defeat APC and President Tinubu with or without the coalition. But because Nigeria is a country where elections are neither free nor fair, considering the factors analyzed above and below, Obi needs the alliance as much as the alliance needs him to close the loophole witnessed in 2023.

On the day of the election, coalition members should make sure that voters’ votes are counted as cast, results transmitted as enshrined in the electoral act without flimsy excuses on any concocted technical hitch, and figures written on the official provided result sheets. They should have the capacity against any bullion van, armored cars, bulletproof jeeps, and other private cars moving around. They should be at the forefront to defend their party’s votes and mandates and mobilize their confidants and agents throughout the country. It is no longer enough to tell the masses to stand with empty hands and defend their votes against well-armed criminals illegally moving around polling booths and collation centres, changing figures, and altering results. Most importantly, they must have the capacity to make the INEC Chairman announce the original documented results and not manipulated figures with Tippex. Anything less will be the same story as it was in 2023.

Conclusion

My sincere message to ADC party agents is that, in their capacity to decide who becomes the presidential candidate of their party, lies the hope of millions of Nigerians for a functioning society. They must be critical and holistic because the choice they make will either take Nigeria out of the throes of death, shape the future we all will be proud of, or pave the way for the continuation of hunger, killings, criminality, hopelessness, and disaster.

We have chosen before based on religion, but it failed us. We have also chosen based on ethnicity, and it was a tragedy. We have equally made choices based on party even when we saw better choices, but our loyalties were rewarded with hunger, insecurity, terrorism, killing, rascality, corruption, sorrow, and tears. We cannot continue in the same direction anymore. We must get it right this time by choosing capacity, integrity, competence, tolerance and a person of honor. Peter Gregory Obi is that option. Choose wisely.

♦ Uzoma Ahamefule, a refined African traditionalist and a patriotic citizen writes from Vienna, Austria. WhatsApp: +436607369050; Email Contact Uzoma >>>>