Anthony Obi Ogbo
Obism—The test of translating a movement into electoral victory votes
“The duo of Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed remains the most qualified team that could steer this country in a different direction. However, a possible victory hangs on how this movement could strategically circumvent a dysfunctional balloting process and navigate past the finish line of electoral victory.” ―Anthony Obi Ogbo
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During a strategic group meeting of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) held shortly before the 2015 election at a castle on Puerta Vista Lane in Houston, TX, Hon. Dan Ulasi, a strategist with the party at the time, shocked his party enthusiasts when he hinted that their flagbearer and incumbent, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, might not make it to the next tenure. According to Ulasi, with time running out, the campaign was not organized on the ground, did not weigh the electoral map options, and had no strategies to counter a possible ballot mishandling. A few months after this prediction, the Jonathan regime crumbled like a soggy, oil-drenched Ijebu fried plantain.
Thus, one of the major reasons Goodluck Jonathan fell in the 2015 presidential race was his campaign’s inability to explore on-the-ground winning strategies. Overconfident and blind to ideas, his team relied on three major factors: a rousing social media blare, the power of incumbency, and public hatred for his archrival, Muhammadu Buhari.
Currently, Nigeria is faced with yet another chance to turn over a new regime leaf. At the forefront of Nigeria’s politics is the Peter Obi movement tagged Obism. The subject, Peter Gregory Obi, a businessman and politician who served as the Governor of Anambra State two separate times, is the Labour Party nominee for President of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential election. Obi’s campaign supporters gradually metamorphosed into an inspiring political movement, spreading across the nation like wildfire. Most passionate about this cause is the younger population. They took their excitement to the internet and infiltrated social media with campaign literature, including videos, catchphrases, and memes.
While all core supporters of Obi might be classified as “Obidients,” it must also be noted that in reality, there are just two categories: the Obi campaign strategists and the Obidients. The campaign strategists within the Peter Obi Support Network (POSN) are result-driven individuals focused on creating working avenues to get Obi elected. Armed with good funds and the right message, they remain the foremost support network that is crowdfunding for Peter Obi’s presidential campaigns.
In contrast, the Obidients are desperate do-or-die fanatics blind to the complexities of prevailing political terrain but driven by emotions and unquestioning enthusiasm borne out of frustration over the country’s decades of economic, social, and political meltdown. They are good, too, but often embarrass their candidate with messages incompatible with his electioneering ideology.
They are uncontrollable and flood social media platforms with video clips and poster messages conflicting with or perhaps contradicting what their candidate stands for. For example, the campaign understands the “Igbo fear factor” in Nigerian politics and has been working hard to portray its candidate as an ethnically blind figure who would unite the country. In sheer contrast, some Obidient fanatics are busy spewing messages about the inevitability of electing Obi as bait to win the Igbos into the national fold—an approach that might attract mistrust and fear among voters of northern swing states. Similarly, they have played into the hands of the opposition by unintelligibly engaging in social media tribal wars that further portray their candidate as a tribal leader.
Organizers must not be confused between an ideological movement and running a political campaign
Obism or “Obidience” is a movement, yet organizers must not be confused between an ideological movement and running a political campaign in Nigeria—a nation with a terrible electioneering record. The success of any mobilization structure for political advancement must entail strategic planning, organizing, fundraising, and mobilization of individuals.
Without a doubt, Obism is trending. Yet there are concerns about carrying the momentum beyond the current emotional excitement, social media buzz, and sometimes, annoying bombastic optimism. Do not get me wrong. Those lines are still influential in building and sustaining a campaign. However, strategies are yet to be seen for taking advantage of this movement and pushing momentum through the finishing lines of electoral victory. Just yesterday, at a mega rally in Houston, Texas, a supposed spokesman for the Obidient repeatedly announced that voters should ignore parties and vote for individuals—an indication that those fanatics are clueless about where the campaign is headed.
The Obidient fanatics have also bastardized his “shishi” ideology. “We no dey give shishi” is an anti-bribery maxim highlighting the candidate’s ethical decency in a country where corruption is an anthem. Unfortunately, the Obidient fanatics have pushed this mantra beyond the lines, discouraging prospective campaign workers, performing artists, and media platforms with a fictitious belief that the campaign is structured only to employ volunteers who would use their own money and resources.
There has to be alignment to sustain a winning approach. The campaign strategists could bring the fanatics into the fold and curtail their excesses by facilitating their campaign messages and other strategic advances to align with their electioneering mission. Actors, actresses, and performing artists must not be dissuaded by the “We no dey give shishi” mantra; rather, they must be engaged with attractive cash rewards to lead the grassroots voter mobilization drive. Polling booths are located neither on Instagram nor TikTok.
Polling booths are located neither on Instagram nor TikTok.
Just yesterday, one day before the closing of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise, some hoodlums stormed the facility of St. Brigid Catholic Church Ijesha Lagos, where thousands of late registrants gathered and made away with all the equipment and materials. There was also similar news in several parts of the country, especially in the Southeast. The campaign must mobilize groups to monitor and coordinate polling locations before the election, to deter opposition vandals from election day ballot-snatching surprises. It worked in Edo’s previous gubernatorial race.
The candidate, Obi, has virtually traveled through the entire nation. Yet, it is worrisome that two other major rivals, Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) and Bola Tinubu (the All-Progressives Congress), are not vigorously campaigning. Both candidates, who are richer than Nigeria, have a history of buying their ways through any process and have successfully demonstrated this on many occasions.
The duo of Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed remains the most qualified team that could steer this country in a different direction. However, a possible victory hangs on how this movement could strategically circumvent a dysfunctional balloting process and navigate past the finish line of electoral victory.
Let us be clear about Nigerian politics. Knowing Nigeria is one thing. Understanding its intricate politics requires unique competencies unavailable on Google. Nigeria’s political setting transcends the electoral process and often entails inconceivably crooked ballot handling. The three most crucial winning structures are facilitating and sustaining an on-the-ground poll army, strategic coordination of electoral maps, and the ability to counter ballot mishandling and falsification of ballot figures.
In the electioneering trade, a movement represents an ideology, a campaign is a project. Team Obi could use this movement to build a winning campaign. It may sound unprofessional, but to tear through the walls of Nigeria’s electoral challenges, the Obi campaign must, at some point, play dirty. The capacity of this approach will not be discussed in this article, but as the African Ancestors would caution, to pound food on the mortar or to pound on a bare floor is a choice.
♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Journalism and RTF Professor, Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015) and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us
“In just two years, this court has rearranged America’s system and dragged it back to the 40s by systematically undoing major legislation..“ —Anthony Ogbo
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President Joe Biden has been very outspoken about his thoughts that the Supreme Court dominated by rightwing justices, cannot be relied upon to uphold the rule of law. In June 2022 for instance, after this Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said, “Make no mistake: This decision is the culmination of a deliberate effort over decades to upset the balance of our law. It’s a realization of an extreme ideology and a tragic error by the Supreme Court, in my view.”
In a typical democratic process, the three arms of government play a crucial role in ensuring a balance of power and upholding the principles of justice, accountability, and transparency. These three branches – the executive, legislative, and judiciary – work together to ensure the smooth functioning of a democratic system.
However, the current political trends in the American system might suggest otherwise. SCOTUS, conservative to the bone marrow, appears to be the only overbearing arm in the system, indirectly changing the existing rules, and dictating or interpreting them to suit their radical interests.
The key recent rulings of this far-right Supreme Court have been trending. These rulings have a serious impact on various issues, ranging from civil rights to environmental regulations. Indeed, SCOTUS is overly focused on destructively conservative ideology and this has drastically affected the rights of marginalized communities, such as women, racial and ethnic minorities, and the LGBTQ+ community.
Recent rulings so far are posing serious consequences for the lives and well-being of millions of Americans and could undermine the progress that has been made toward a more equitable and just society.
In just two years, this court has rearranged America’s system and dragged it back to the 40s by systematically undoing major legislation. For instance, in June 2022, in a historic and far-reaching decision, this court officially reversed Roe v. Wade, declaring that the constitutional right to abortion, upheld for nearly a half-century, no longer exists.
Another surprising but historic decision came around June 2023 when this court effectively ended race-conscious admission programs at colleges and universities nationwide. In a decision divided along ideological lines, the six-justice conservative supermajority invalidated admissions programs at Harvard and the University of North Carolina. Now, most other colleges are following that precedent.
We can go all day recalling very daring policies bastardized by the conservative majority of this court. For instance, the striking down of President Biden’s groundbreaking plan to forgive some or all federal student loan debt for tens of millions of Americans; and a controversial ruling against the LGBTQ protections in favor of a Christian web designer in Colorado who refuses to create websites to celebrate same-sex weddings out of religious objections.
But their mission is not over. In just this week alone, this court agreed to hear an appeal brought by a man charged with offenses relating to the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol in a case that could have a major impact on the criminal prosecution of former President Donald Trump. That was not enough. It further handed the Texas Republicans a huge win when it ruled that the map in GOP-run Galveston County could be used, despite concerns that it was discriminatory against minority voters because it took away the only district dominated by Black and Latino voters.
The latest show of power by the Supreme Court has exposed the porosity of the democratic process. In addition, appointing politicians radicalized by dire social ideologies and party extremists to the Supreme Court raises questions about its objectivity and impartiality.
Here is a feasible remedy. While voters whine about immigration, abortion, gun control, etc., voters must take seriously the power of this court and its capacity to shape the future direction of the United States. Thus, curtailing their excesses requires a Democratic-led House and Senate to push through a more objective legislative agenda without objections. Giving the system another chance to induct more right extremists into this Court might be self-destructive.
♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Journalism and RTF Professor, Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015) and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us
“He can equally argue that a presidential candidate in a forthcoming election must be exonerated from legal indictments to avoid “election interference” or “weaponization of the justice system” by the regime.“ —Anthony Ogbo
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In the realms of political governance, the power of setting precedence cannot be underestimated. When a precedent is created, it becomes a guiding principle or standard for future actions or decisions. It establishes a framework for how similar situations should be handled, and it holds individuals accountable for their actions. Whether in law, politics, or personal relationships, setting precedence can shape and influence future outcomes.
Since last year, the former president, Donald Trump has been at loggerheads with the law, playing hide-and-seek with the Justice Department over his surmounting legal predicament. The major contention was that a presidential candidate in a forthcoming election must be exonerated from legal indictments to avoid “election interference” or “weaponization of the justice system” by the regime.
Some media analysts and legal scholars with political interests have argued similarly, that the “candidate” Trump should be immune from charges over offenses he committed because he is a candidate.
A few days ago however, the Department of Justice filed new criminal charges against President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, accusing him of failing to pay $1.4 million in taxes while spending millions of dollars on a lavish lifestyle. He faces up to 17 years in prison if convicted. Hunter Biden’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, defended his client accusing U.S. Special Counsel David Weiss, who is leading the probe, of political bias.
Since this announcement, President Biden’s Republican critics and the right-wing media communities have been celebrating. They have a reason to. For instance, this derisive federal indictment has provided a boost to House Republicans for their impeachment inquiry against President Biden – yet there was no mention of Biden in the indictment. So far, their efforts to prove serious wrongdoing on Biden’s part have come up blank.
But there is another dimension to Hunter’s case. As we know, Trump accumulated his legal woes before he quickly declared to run for President on November 15, 2022. He made it clear that no verdict or sentence would halt his campaign and bragged that he would carry on running for president from behind bars if he had to. And that if elected, he would use the power of his office to either quash any ongoing prosecutions or pardon himself for any convictions.
He posted personally identifiable information about court officials, including a photo of a judge’s daughter; warned of “potential death and destruction” if he is charged; and vowed, “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU.” Trump’s lawyers argue he is a political candidate exercising his First Amendment rights.
In Georgia, grand jurors’ names, addresses, and images were released online by Trump allies and a racist death threat against the judge presiding over the federal Jan. 6 case. The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law published a display of Trump’s troubling pattern of attacking judges and the courts for rulings he disagrees with. In addition, Rolling Stone (July 2022) reported how Trump told his team, he needed to be president again to save himself from criminal probes.
Trump has intentionally derailed proceedings by frivolously requesting delays and unwarranted extensions on pre-trial issues. These are just strategies to aimlessly continue dragging these cases with unjustified delays.
But his antics so far are paying off. Besides the delay tactics, Trump and his cronies believe that his cases would be strategically dragged to the extremely right-leaning Supreme Court, where the judges he appointed could be of great help.
There are also congressional efforts to save Trump from his dilemma. Recall that on March 30, a grand jury in Manhattan indicted him on 34 counts of falsification of business records. Shockingly, the response of congressional Republicans created an ugly pattern of defense for Trump. Before the indictment, Republican congressional committee chairs threatened to subpoena confidential records from the investigation and withhold federal funding in retaliation for any indictment.
These are all dangerous precedents that can stall the democratic process and destroy the scepter that guides the rule of law. In a democracy, setting a precedence may not be a written law, but remains a fundamental aspect of the legal system. In other words, when a court decides on a particular case; congress undertakes an unusual process, or the system condones a certain tradition, it becomes a binding precedent that must be followed in similar cases in the future. This ensures consistency and predictability in the system.
The danger of all these trends is that a line of legal patterns has already been created, and more are on the way. In the meantime, Hunter Biden could take advantage of these privileges by simply declaring to run for election as an independent. He could follow Trump’s playbook and equally enjoy the privileges already set in the political and legal system.
♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Journalism and RTF Professor, Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015) and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us
“They had the opportunity to bring level-headed representatives into Congress during the Midterm but blew it. They ignored all the warnings and stubbornly supported, voted, and cheered the most destructive political vandals into Congress. Today, they are getting exactly what they bargained for—insanity” —Anthony Ogbo
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Currently, the Congress is made up of three political organizations – the Republicans, the Democrats, and a psychotic gang called MAGA. By the way, MAGA named after Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” is a xenophobic political movement that emerged during that period. Trump remains their undisputed gang leader.
During the last Midterm, at least 80 people who have questioned the 2020 election results won seats in the House— reinforcing a sizable MAGA caucus. Analysts then warned that this trend could impact the 2024 presidential election, reshape congressional priorities, and weaken institutional leaders.
Even before these elections, there were stern warnings about these vandals – that if elected, they would wield influence first in choosing the caucus’ leadership — and those leaders would have to make deals, either with them or with Democrats, to pass any bill. Most Americans blatantly refused to listen, especially some independents and other voters leaning right. Today, the entire country is suffering the wrath of what was predicted before and after the 2022 Midterm election.
This was how we got here.
Just a few hours ago, MAGA Republicans in the House rejected a bill proposed by their leader, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to temporarily fund the government, making it all but certain that federal agencies will partially shut down beginning on Sunday.
In a 232-198 vote, the House defeated a measure that would extend government funding by 30 days and avert a shutdown.
Embattled President Joe Biden called them an “extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy”. Biden said that, while not all Republicans adhere to the movement, the party is currently “driven and intimidated by MAGA Republican extremists”.
MAGA’s gang leader, Trump is having a field day. He shut down the government once as a president and this time, he had ordered his disciples in the House to do it again. He convinced them that a shutdown would stop the federal and state trials he faces in D.C., New York City, Florida, and Georgia. Here’s how he posted this on his Truth Social site.
“Republicans in Congress can and must defund all aspects of Crooked Joe Biden’s weaponized Government,” the former Republican White House occupant bleated. Doing so would be “the last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots.”
Do not forget that the last time Trump shut down the government, for 35 days, was to unsuccessfully force lawmakers to fund his xenophobic Mexican Wall.
Without going any further, let me go straight to the main point – the political implications of the choices voters make, especially in very crucial elections. It is wrong to continually blame elected officials for dire political advances. The two major stakeholders of the election process are voters and the candidates they elect. Voters who elect unintelligent destructive radicals into office should equally be blamed for self-damaging electoral choices.
Voters had the opportunity to bring level-headed representatives into Congress during the Midterm but blew it. They ignored all the warnings and stubbornly supported, voted, and cheered the most destructive political vandals into Congress. Today, they are getting exactly what they bargained for—insanity.
Those who stupidly elected or reelected the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Jim Banks, and a lineup of other moronic hardliners should be ashamed of their voting choices.
The greatest threat to America’s democracy today is no longer the communist foes. Also, those who, this time, believe or argue that America’s top problems are inflation, healthcare affordability, drug addiction, and gun violence must stop deceiving themselves. From the rule of law to the governance structure and culture, Trump and his MAGA group remain the nation’s greatest political test. The survival of America’s democracy depends on how voters can reject these demons.
♦Publisher of the Guardian News, Journalism and RTF Professor, Anthony Obi Ogbo, Ph.D. is on the Editorial Board of the West African Pilot News. He is the author of the Influence of Leadership (2015) and the Maxims of Political Leadership (2019). Contact: anthony@guardiannews.us
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