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A surge of Black women and young people registering to vote in Pennsylvania spells trouble for Trump

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1 year ago

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New voter registrations surged among Black women and young people in Pennsylvania when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to newly released data.

In the week that Joe Biden announced he would not run for re-election, new registrations increased by 262 per cent among Black women under 30 compared to the same week in 2020.

Registrations among Black voters increased by 110 per cent, and among voters under 30 years old by 59 per cent, also compared to the same week in 2020.

All of those demographic groups lean heavily towards voting for Democrats .

The new data, shared with The Independent by Democratic political data firm TargetSmart, is likely to provide a significant boost to the Harris campaign in the must-win state.

Similar trends are showing up in other swing states, too .

It is the first voter registration data from the state to be released after the week of July 21, when Harris became the presumptive nominee, and may signal a shift in the race that is not yet showing in polls.

Current polling shows a virtual dead heat between Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that Biden won by a little over 80,000 votes to clinch victory.

While the raw numbers of new voters may only number in the thousands, they show an enthusiasm among traditional Democratic voting groups that could be game-changing, according to Tom Bonier, a veteran Democratic political strategist and senior advisor to TargetSmart.

“The big question we’re all trying to answer is who’s going to turn out, where the energy lies, and if there’s an asymmetrical distribution of enthusiasm between the parties,” he told The Independent.

“This data is suggesting that women, younger voters, voters of color, and then especially younger women of color are going to vote at a much higher rate than they did in 2020, and that’s where you’re talking about a significant potential impact on the outcome of this election,” he added.

Pennsylvania does not include demographic information on its voter registration files, but TargetSmart matches identifying data on the files with consumer data from marketing firms to produce a breakdown model.

The firm produced a similar breakdown before the 2018 midterms that correctly predicted a large increase in the number of young voters, which contributed to the Democratic Party’s “ blue wave ” victory that year.

The new data comes as volunteers for the Harris campaign are telling a similar story across Pennsylvania.

Craig Robertson, a campaign volunteer from Lancaster County, in Pennsylvania, told The Independent this week that his area had seen a wave of young volunteers reaching out to the campaign.

“Just in our district, since Kamala took over at the top of the ticket, we’ve had almost three dozen additional volunteers skewed very much towards the younger people,” he said.

Molly McKitterick, a Democrat and former journalist also from Lancaster, said she had seen the same thing.

“I think one of the things that has not been factored into the polls is all these new people that are being registered, they are all women and young people,” she said outside of a campaign stop by vice presidential candidate Tim Walz in the town.

“So I just think we’re not seeing the true effects yet,” she added.

The importance of Pennsylvania to both campaigns has seen an avalanche of advertising spending. Democrats have spent $114 million statewide this year , while Republicans have spent $102 million.

The Harris campaign has focused heavily on running up the margins in rural, stubbornly pro-Trump areas of the state. It has opened 50 campaign offices across the state, 16 of which are in counties that Trump won by double digits in 2016.

While the polls may not be able to tell the whole story, they have shown a remarkable improvement in the Democratic Party’s prospects in Pennsylvania since Harris took over as the nominee. Harris improved upon Biden’s polling average by nearly four points in a little over a month. Crucially, the improvements for Harris are appearing in the very same groups that Biden struggled with, namely young voters and voters of color.

Bonier said that the impact of the spike in voter registrations showed that the Democrats are now running a different campaign.

“One of the main reasons Biden was lagging in the polls was because he wasn’t getting the sort of support or enthusiasm Democratic candidates historically have gotten from younger voters and voters of color. That was his biggest deficiency,” he said. “To see an immediate reaction to Vice President Harris, where exactly those voters who were the most problematic for the Biden campaign are suddenly rallying with registration rates? That doesn’t have a precedent that I’m aware of, and it is a very good sign for the Harris campaign.”

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Houston

Turnout, Trust, and Ground Game: What Decided Houston’s Runoff Elections

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4 days ago

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December 14, 2025

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Low-turnout runoff races for Houston City Council and Houston Community College trustee seats revealed how message discipline, local credibility, and voter mobilization determined clear winners—and decisive losers.

The final ballots are counted, and Houston’s runoff elections have delivered clear outcomes in two closely watched local races, underscoring a familiar truth of municipal politics: in low-turnout elections, organization and credibility matter more than name recognition alone.

In the race for Houston City Council At-Large Position 4, Alejandra Salinas secured a decisive victory, winning 25,710 votes (59.27%) over former council member Dwight A. Boykins, who garnered 17,669 votes (40.73%). The margin was not accidental. Salinas ran a campaign tightly aligned with voter anxiety over public safety and infrastructure—two issues that consistently dominate Houston’s civic conversations. Her emphasis on keeping violent criminals off city streets and expanding Houston’s water supply spoke directly to quality-of-life concerns that resonate across districts, especially in an at-large contest where candidates must appeal to the city as a whole.

Salinas’ win reflects the advantage of message clarity. In a runoff, voters are not looking to be introduced to candidates—they are choosing between candidates they are already familiar with. Salinas presented herself as forward-looking and solutions-oriented, while Boykins, despite his experience and political history, struggled to reframe his candidacy beyond familiarity. In runoffs, nostalgia rarely outperforms momentum.

The second race—for Houston Community College District II trustee—followed a similar pattern. Renee Jefferson Patterson won with 2,497 votes (56.63%), defeating Kathleen “Kathy” Lynch Gunter, who received 1,912 votes (43.37%). Though the raw numbers were smaller, the dynamics were just as telling.

Patterson’s victory was powered by deep local ties and a clear institutional vision. As an HCC alumna, she effectively positioned herself as both a product and a steward of the system. Her pledge to expand the North Forest Campus and direct resources to Acres Home connected policy goals to place-based advocacy. In trustee races, voters often respond less to ideology and more to proximity—those who understand the campus, the students, and the neighborhood. Patterson checked all three boxes.

By contrast, Gunter’s loss highlights the challenge of overcoming a candidate with genuine community roots in a runoff scenario. Without a sharply differentiated message or a strong geographic base, turnout dynamics tend to favor candidates with existing neighborhood networks and direct institutional relevance.

What ultimately decided both races was not a surprise, but execution. Runoffs reward campaigns that can re-mobilize supporters, simplify their message, and convert familiarity into trust. Salinas and Patterson did exactly that. Their opponents, though credible, were unable to expand or energize their coalitions in a compressed electoral window.

The lesson from Houston’s runoff elections is straightforward but unforgiving: winners win because they align message, identity, and ground game. Losers lose because, in low-turnout contests, anything less than that alignment is insufficient.

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Africa

Nigeria–Burkina Faso Rift: Military Power, Mistrust, and a Region Out of Balance

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5 days ago

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December 14, 2025

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The brief detention of a Nigerian Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft and its crew in Burkina Faso may have ended quietly, but it exposed a deeper rift shaped by mistrust, insecurity, and uneven military power in West Africa. What was officially a technical emergency landing quickly became a diplomatic and security flashpoint, reflecting not hostility between equals, but anxiety between unequally matched states navigating very different political realities.

On December 8, 2025, the Nigerian Air Force transport aircraft made an unscheduled landing in Bobo-Dioulasso while en route to Portugal. Nigerian authorities described the stop as a precautionary response to a technical fault—standard procedure under international aviation and military safety protocols. Burkina Faso acknowledged the emergency landing but emphasized that the aircraft had violated its airspace, prompting the temporary detention of 11 Nigerian personnel while investigations and repairs were conducted. Within days, the crew and aircraft were released, underscoring a professional, if tense, resolution.

Yet the symbolism mattered. In a Sahel region gripped by coups, insurgencies, and fragile legitimacy, airspace is not merely technical—it is political. Burkina Faso’s reaction reflected a state on edge, hyper-vigilant about sovereignty amid persistent internal threats. Nigeria’s response, measured and restrained, reflected confidence rooted in capacity.

The military imbalance between the two countries is stark. Nigeria fields one of Africa’s most formidable armed forces, with a tri-service structure that includes a large, well-equipped air force, a dominant regional navy, and a sizable army capable of sustained operations. The Nigerian Air Force operates fighter jets such as the JF-17 and F-7Ni, as well as A-29 Super Tucanos for counterinsurgency operations, heavy transport aircraft like the C-130, and an extensive helicopter fleet. This force is designed not only for internal security but for regional power projection and multinational operations.

Burkina Faso’s military, by contrast, is compact and narrowly focused. Its air arm relies on a limited number of light attack aircraft, including Super Tucanos, and a small helicopter fleet primarily dedicated to internal counterinsurgency. There is no navy, no strategic airlift capacity comparable to Nigeria’s, and limited logistical depth. The Burkinabè military is stretched thin, fighting multiple insurgent groups while also managing the political consequences of repeated military takeovers.

This imbalance shapes behavior. Nigeria’s military posture is institutional, outward-looking, and anchored in regional frameworks such as ECOWAS. Burkina Faso’s posture is defensive, reactive, and inward-facing. Where Nigeria seeks stability through deterrence and cooperation, Burkina Faso seeks survival amid constant internal pressure. That difference explains why a technical landing could be perceived as a “serious security breach” rather than a routine aviation incident.

The incident also illuminates why Burkina Faso continues to struggle to regain political balance. Repeated coups have eroded civilian institutions, fractured command structures, and blurred the line between governance and militarization. The armed forces are not just security actors; they are political stakeholders. This creates a cycle where insecurity justifies military rule, and military rule deepens insecurity by weakening democratic legitimacy and regional trust.

Nigeria, despite its own security challenges, has managed to avoid this spiral. Civilian control of the military remains intact, democratic transitions—however imperfect—continue, and its armed forces operate within a clearer constitutional framework. This stability enhances Nigeria’s regional credibility and amplifies its military superiority beyond hardware alone.

The C-130 episode did not escalate into confrontation precisely because of this asymmetry. Burkina Faso could assert sovereignty, but not sustain defiance. Nigeria could have asserted its capability, but chose restraint. In the end, professionalism prevailed.

Still, the rift lingers. It is not about one aircraft or one landing, but about two countries moving in different strategic directions. Nigeria stands as a regional anchor with superior military power and institutional depth. Burkina Faso remains a state searching for equilibrium—politically fragile, militarily constrained, and acutely sensitive to every perceived threat from the skies above.

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Bizarre Epstein files reference to Trump, Putin, and oral sex with ‘Bubba’ draws scrutiny in Congress

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1 month ago

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November 14, 2025

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The latest tranche of emails from the estate of late convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein includes one that contains what appear to be references to President Donald Trump allegedly performing oral sex, raising questions the committee cannot answer until the Department of Justice turns over records it has withheld, says U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

Garcia insists the Trump White House is helping block them.

In a Friday afternoon interview with The Advocate, the out California lawmaker responded to a 2018 exchange, which was included in the emails released, between Jeffrey Epstein and his brother, Mark Epstein. In that message, Mark wrote that because Jeffrey Epstein had said he was with former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, he should “ask him if Putin has the photos of Trump blowing Bubba.”

“Bubba” is a nickname former President Bill Clinton has been known by; however, the email does not clarify who Mark Epstein meant, and the context remains unclear.

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