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Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Race: Now That Tinubu Is Here…

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4 years ago

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n what was completely unexpected to many, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu emerged the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC from the party’s Convention without appearing to break sweat.
Congratulations to him for employing every trick in his arsenal as an old fox to corner a ticket many didn’t see coming.
Whether he is truly the kind of president Nigeria needs at this perilous time in our history will be very critically analysed in the coming months.
Until then, let’s look at things dispassionately. We now have three major candidates in HE Peter Obi of Labour Party, LP, HE Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and HE Ahmed Tinubu of APC. Believe me, I am not trying to undermine the chances of NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and APGA’s Prof Peter Umeadi.
Just permit me to concentrate on the earlier trio based on my mindset at this very moment.
Make no mistake about it, if the Presidential election is held coming Saturday, APC will retain power. They are the ruling party and they have all government institutions in place to roll over all opposition. However, that is if President Muhammadu Buhari doesn’t throw his incumbency weight behind PDP’s Atiku, as being widely speculated.
Under a free-and-fair election, PDP will come second. This is because they’re not just the main opposition with appropriate reach, they were also the former ruling party. Their structures, though thoroughly shaken after seven severe years, are still formidable enough to push Labour Party to third place.
HE Peter Obi and LP will come third if this election is held as being speculated in this write-up. Labour Party is yet to harness the millions of supporters of the former governor of Anambra State into a discernible electoral force that can displace the two major challengers in APC and PDP.
But all these can change in eight months if…
First, let nobody kid himself that Asiwaju Tinubu is an easy meal. From the little I’ve witnessed, he’s the most organised politician alive in this country today. He can play smooth and rough, more rough than smooth any way. His propaganda machinery is second to none in Africa. He owns major media houses. Those he doesn’t own, he easily buys over once the issue is electioneering. This is how he effectively dismantled PDP while ushering in Buhari in 2015.
But Tinubu’s behind-the-scene arms are rumoured to be even far more devastating. Grapevine has it he’s a master in creating chaos, however deadly, to discredit his opponents and use his media weight to make the artificial diversion stick. Those who claim to know say that Jagaban is capable of anything while some further add this is even talking lightly.
Moreover, Tinubu enjoys the tremendous goodwill nurtured over the years by giving birth to and positioning political godsons all over important political institutions in Nigeria. They say that whenever he tells them to jump, they only respond, “how high?” The manner he cornered the APC ticket from a very complex pool attests to this.
Nonetheless, the former two-term governor of Lagos State has his party’s poor performance in office to worry about. Nigeria came to her knees in all spheres of positive development under the seven years of APC leadership. From the dollar hitting over N600 exchange rate to every community in the country being under siege of all manner of AK 47 wielding criminals, Tinubu will need to base his propaganda houses in heaven to stand any chance of pulling the wool over the eyes of Nigerians a third time. The APC, under campaign by all four visible opposition parties, will lose whatever leadership appeal(if any) they still have at the moment. Let’s see what Jagaban and his kingdom of propagandists present in the days ahead, interesting days ahead.
For the PDP, they have in Atiku another super heavy weight. For all the positives Tinubu exhales,, the former vice president is not far behind, if behind at all. Money, affluence, experience, tact…Atiku has them. He also enjoys tremendous goodwill built over the years from his influential office as a smart customs officer through the eight years he served as a very influential vice president. His own political godsons are equally all over the place. How he managed to curtail the ragging bull called Nyesom Wike to wrestle home the party’s ticket is a reminder that wine gets better with age.
However, his burden will also be his party, the PDP. They stood a very big chance when they had Obi in their fold. Nigerians know their history of impudence and looting that paved way for APC’s coming seven years ago. Majority of Nigerians don’t trust them to have truly repented. If some voting Nigerians were in doubt, the party itself cancelling zoning, which was hitherto enshrined in their modus operandi, erased such doubts. That was the biggest manner to betray trust.
As if such heavy shot on the leg was not enough the party blocked the chances of Obi, the one individual that would have erased doubts and drawn voters appeal towards the party had they been reasonable enough to grant such exemplary aspirant the party’s ticket. Such callousness threw their hitherto assured chances of regaining power out of the window. I don’t see the magic they will perform under eight months to turn around majority of Nigerians who appear to have had enough of APC and PDP.
Will Peter Obi and Labour Party capitalise on the evident rejection of the two biggest parties to coast home?

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Houston

Turnout, Trust, and Ground Game: What Decided Houston’s Runoff Elections

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4 days ago

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December 14, 2025

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Low-turnout runoff races for Houston City Council and Houston Community College trustee seats revealed how message discipline, local credibility, and voter mobilization determined clear winners—and decisive losers.

The final ballots are counted, and Houston’s runoff elections have delivered clear outcomes in two closely watched local races, underscoring a familiar truth of municipal politics: in low-turnout elections, organization and credibility matter more than name recognition alone.

In the race for Houston City Council At-Large Position 4, Alejandra Salinas secured a decisive victory, winning 25,710 votes (59.27%) over former council member Dwight A. Boykins, who garnered 17,669 votes (40.73%). The margin was not accidental. Salinas ran a campaign tightly aligned with voter anxiety over public safety and infrastructure—two issues that consistently dominate Houston’s civic conversations. Her emphasis on keeping violent criminals off city streets and expanding Houston’s water supply spoke directly to quality-of-life concerns that resonate across districts, especially in an at-large contest where candidates must appeal to the city as a whole.

Salinas’ win reflects the advantage of message clarity. In a runoff, voters are not looking to be introduced to candidates—they are choosing between candidates they are already familiar with. Salinas presented herself as forward-looking and solutions-oriented, while Boykins, despite his experience and political history, struggled to reframe his candidacy beyond familiarity. In runoffs, nostalgia rarely outperforms momentum.

The second race—for Houston Community College District II trustee—followed a similar pattern. Renee Jefferson Patterson won with 2,497 votes (56.63%), defeating Kathleen “Kathy” Lynch Gunter, who received 1,912 votes (43.37%). Though the raw numbers were smaller, the dynamics were just as telling.

Patterson’s victory was powered by deep local ties and a clear institutional vision. As an HCC alumna, she effectively positioned herself as both a product and a steward of the system. Her pledge to expand the North Forest Campus and direct resources to Acres Home connected policy goals to place-based advocacy. In trustee races, voters often respond less to ideology and more to proximity—those who understand the campus, the students, and the neighborhood. Patterson checked all three boxes.

By contrast, Gunter’s loss highlights the challenge of overcoming a candidate with genuine community roots in a runoff scenario. Without a sharply differentiated message or a strong geographic base, turnout dynamics tend to favor candidates with existing neighborhood networks and direct institutional relevance.

What ultimately decided both races was not a surprise, but execution. Runoffs reward campaigns that can re-mobilize supporters, simplify their message, and convert familiarity into trust. Salinas and Patterson did exactly that. Their opponents, though credible, were unable to expand or energize their coalitions in a compressed electoral window.

The lesson from Houston’s runoff elections is straightforward but unforgiving: winners win because they align message, identity, and ground game. Losers lose because, in low-turnout contests, anything less than that alignment is insufficient.

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Africa

Nigeria–Burkina Faso Rift: Military Power, Mistrust, and a Region Out of Balance

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5 days ago

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December 14, 2025

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The brief detention of a Nigerian Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft and its crew in Burkina Faso may have ended quietly, but it exposed a deeper rift shaped by mistrust, insecurity, and uneven military power in West Africa. What was officially a technical emergency landing quickly became a diplomatic and security flashpoint, reflecting not hostility between equals, but anxiety between unequally matched states navigating very different political realities.

On December 8, 2025, the Nigerian Air Force transport aircraft made an unscheduled landing in Bobo-Dioulasso while en route to Portugal. Nigerian authorities described the stop as a precautionary response to a technical fault—standard procedure under international aviation and military safety protocols. Burkina Faso acknowledged the emergency landing but emphasized that the aircraft had violated its airspace, prompting the temporary detention of 11 Nigerian personnel while investigations and repairs were conducted. Within days, the crew and aircraft were released, underscoring a professional, if tense, resolution.

Yet the symbolism mattered. In a Sahel region gripped by coups, insurgencies, and fragile legitimacy, airspace is not merely technical—it is political. Burkina Faso’s reaction reflected a state on edge, hyper-vigilant about sovereignty amid persistent internal threats. Nigeria’s response, measured and restrained, reflected confidence rooted in capacity.

The military imbalance between the two countries is stark. Nigeria fields one of Africa’s most formidable armed forces, with a tri-service structure that includes a large, well-equipped air force, a dominant regional navy, and a sizable army capable of sustained operations. The Nigerian Air Force operates fighter jets such as the JF-17 and F-7Ni, as well as A-29 Super Tucanos for counterinsurgency operations, heavy transport aircraft like the C-130, and an extensive helicopter fleet. This force is designed not only for internal security but for regional power projection and multinational operations.

Burkina Faso’s military, by contrast, is compact and narrowly focused. Its air arm relies on a limited number of light attack aircraft, including Super Tucanos, and a small helicopter fleet primarily dedicated to internal counterinsurgency. There is no navy, no strategic airlift capacity comparable to Nigeria’s, and limited logistical depth. The Burkinabè military is stretched thin, fighting multiple insurgent groups while also managing the political consequences of repeated military takeovers.

This imbalance shapes behavior. Nigeria’s military posture is institutional, outward-looking, and anchored in regional frameworks such as ECOWAS. Burkina Faso’s posture is defensive, reactive, and inward-facing. Where Nigeria seeks stability through deterrence and cooperation, Burkina Faso seeks survival amid constant internal pressure. That difference explains why a technical landing could be perceived as a “serious security breach” rather than a routine aviation incident.

The incident also illuminates why Burkina Faso continues to struggle to regain political balance. Repeated coups have eroded civilian institutions, fractured command structures, and blurred the line between governance and militarization. The armed forces are not just security actors; they are political stakeholders. This creates a cycle where insecurity justifies military rule, and military rule deepens insecurity by weakening democratic legitimacy and regional trust.

Nigeria, despite its own security challenges, has managed to avoid this spiral. Civilian control of the military remains intact, democratic transitions—however imperfect—continue, and its armed forces operate within a clearer constitutional framework. This stability enhances Nigeria’s regional credibility and amplifies its military superiority beyond hardware alone.

The C-130 episode did not escalate into confrontation precisely because of this asymmetry. Burkina Faso could assert sovereignty, but not sustain defiance. Nigeria could have asserted its capability, but chose restraint. In the end, professionalism prevailed.

Still, the rift lingers. It is not about one aircraft or one landing, but about two countries moving in different strategic directions. Nigeria stands as a regional anchor with superior military power and institutional depth. Burkina Faso remains a state searching for equilibrium—politically fragile, militarily constrained, and acutely sensitive to every perceived threat from the skies above.

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Bizarre Epstein files reference to Trump, Putin, and oral sex with ‘Bubba’ draws scrutiny in Congress

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1 month ago

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November 14, 2025

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The latest tranche of emails from the estate of late convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein includes one that contains what appear to be references to President Donald Trump allegedly performing oral sex, raising questions the committee cannot answer until the Department of Justice turns over records it has withheld, says U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

Garcia insists the Trump White House is helping block them.

In a Friday afternoon interview with The Advocate, the out California lawmaker responded to a 2018 exchange, which was included in the emails released, between Jeffrey Epstein and his brother, Mark Epstein. In that message, Mark wrote that because Jeffrey Epstein had said he was with former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, he should “ask him if Putin has the photos of Trump blowing Bubba.”

“Bubba” is a nickname former President Bill Clinton has been known by; however, the email does not clarify who Mark Epstein meant, and the context remains unclear.

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