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Ethiopia Conflict Dynamics Shift as New U.S. Envoy Takes Over

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4 years ago

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Recent signs out of Ethiopia are encouraging, but major issues standing in the way of a sustainable peace remain unresolved.


By Michelle Gavin, Guest columnist and blogger

News coming out of Addis Ababa suggests that the conflict in Ethiopia is entering a new phase. For over a year, momentum seemed to be forever driving toward worsening violence between the federal government, its allies, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as well as a deepening rift between the Ethiopian government and international partners including the United States. But now the TPLF has retreated back to Tigray, and federal ground forces have declined to advance on the region. Ethiopian authorities have freed prominent opposition leaders from prison—including members of the TPLF and Oromo groups that have been at odds with the government—framing the pardons and amnesty as a step toward unity and reconciliation. Late last month, lawmakers approved the establishment of a national dialogue commission that will seek political solutions to the multiple fractures in Ethiopian society. While the dialogue as envisioned will not include armed opponents of the government, it could perhaps create a pathway toward more inclusive and consequential talks.

But not all the news is good. Humanitarian conditions in Tigray are as dire as ever, in large part because the Ethiopian government continues to impede access to the region. Ongoing aerial attacks on civilian targets are exacerbating the loss and suffering, killing Ethiopians and refugees and prompting aid organizations to suspend operations because they cannot safely do their work. This weekend the TPLF claimed that Eritrean forces were continuing to fight in Tigray—a claim that, if true, would render the restraint of federal forces far less meaningful. Meanwhile, many Ethiopians who were swept up in a wave of dubious arrests targeting human rights activists, journalists, and ethnic Tigrayan Ethiopians—whose only crime seemed to be their ethnicity—are still detained.

The Biden administration is assessing these developments and trying to capitalize on the positive trends as it transitions from Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman, whose resignation was announced last week, to his successor, David Satterfield. It will be important to resist the temptation of wishful thinking in this moment and to ensure that a desire for a reset of the bilateral relationship does not lead to a selective reading of the latest developments. There are positive signs, but doubts over the sincerity of the government’s desire for peace persist, as do real questions about the sustainability of steps toward peace. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political base may have been unified in its animus toward the TPLF, but without an urgent threat from a common enemy, competing and sometimes contradictory interests will be hard to satisfy. Some of the militant Amhara nationalists that Abiy relied on over the past year already view the latest amnesties as a betrayal. Eritrea will continue to pursue its own agenda, which does not entail standing down while Ethiopians resolve their political differences peacefully and emerge a stronger and more just society. Accountability for atrocities committed by all parties to the conflict remains elusive.

Over the past year Abiy and his supporters have used the history of U.S.-Ethiopia relations as a cudgel, pointing to Washington’s tendency to overlook internal repression and abuse during the years of TPLF dominance to question U.S. motives. It would be ironic if American desires to end this difficult period led to repeating the same mistakes. Of course, the United States wants a productive relationship with Ethiopia—especially a just, peaceful Ethiopia that models a successful heterogeneous society, champions democratic norms, and supports African institutions. But good relations with the government in Addis Ababa are not worth much if the country is tearing itself apart, simmering with grievances that explode into violence, or practicing and exporting the kind of brutal authoritarian governance that characterizes Eritrea. The United States should take care to consider the totality of the picture in Ethiopia today, remembering that it is the ultimate course of that influential country, not rapport with any one leader, that matters most.

*Michelle Gavin tracks political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa. This article first appeared in CFR.

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Africa

NBA pick Khaman Maluach Hoping to ‘Change the Narrative’ About Africa

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3 months ago

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June 27, 2025

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Immediately after getting drafted, Maluach was asked: “So many people, when they think about Africa, think about strife, think about war, think about not so great things about the continent, let alone South Sudan. How much of a responsibility do you think you have in changing perceptions of what people think Africa is in terms of thinking more about the resources, thinking about the people of Africa and South Sudan, specifically?”

Maluach’s native country, South Sudan, is undergoing a humanitarian crisis. His family fled the country to a suburb of Kampala, Uganda, in search of safety and opportunity during the South Sudan crisis. He now hopes to change the narrative about the region by highlighting its good parts on the world stage.

“I think about showing them the good parts of Africa,” Maluach said at the press conference after he was drafted. “I’m thinking about showing them the great places in Africa, like Kigali, whether it’s Senegal, whether it’s the safaris in Africa, and showing them the cultures we have and the people we have, which is different from the stuff they see on TV. I just want to change the narrative, the narrative of our people and how they see my continent.”

Maluach was born in Rumbek, once an important city in South Sudan that was ravaged by the country’s civil war. The 7’2″ center’s road to success was far from easy. The nearest basketball court to his house was nearly an hour’s walk away and usually packed. Moreover, he played his first game in Crocs, not basketball shoes. But his dedication was enough to catch the eye of local coaches Wal Deng and Aketch Garang.

Through the effort that he put in, Maluach made it to the NBA Academy Africa in Saly, Senegal, then to the Duke Blue Devils, and now the Suns. He hopes the moment inspires kids on the continent.

“Living in Africa, I had the whole continent on my back. Giving hope to young kids,” he said after the Suns selected him No. 10 overall.

Maluach considers basketball a gift God gave him, and hopes to finish off his NBA career as a Hall of Famer.

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Nigeria’s first female fighter pilot Kafayat Sanni excels in Ghana

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3 months ago

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June 27, 2025

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After making history as Nigeria’s first female fighter pilot, Flt. Lt. Kafayat Sanni has emerged as the Best Allied Student and won the Best Assistant Commandant Paper award at the Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College, Accra, according to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).

In a statement released on Saturday and cited by NAN, the Director of Public Relations and Information of the Nigerian Air Force, Air Commodore Ehimen Ejodame, said the awards were presented on Friday during the College graduation ceremony which had in attendance top military personnel and dignitaries from across Africa.

Ejodame recalled how Sanni first made the news in 2019 after being decorated as the Nigerian Air Force’s first female fighter pilot following her pilot training in the U.S.

“Since then, she has flown the Alpha Jet as well as undertaken training sorties on the Super Mushshak as a prolific instructor pilot, producing and mentoring younger pilots for the NAF,” Ejodame said.

“Her outstanding performance at GAFCSC not only symbolises personal excellence and resilience but also underscores Nigeria’s growing leadership in regional defence and commitment to gender inclusion in the armed forces.

“This remarkable achievement further reflects the Nigerian Air Force’s strategic investment in human capital development under the visionary leadership of the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Hasan Abubakar,” he said.

In 2017, Sanni emerged as the overall best pilot at the Nigerian Air Force’s 401 training school before she moved to the United States to train at the U.S. Aviation Leadership program.

Upon completion, Sanni returned to Nigeria, where she, alongside 12 new fighter pilots, was decorated.

As Sanni became the first female fighter pilot in the 55-year history of the Nigerian Air Force, her colleague, Tolulope Arotile, also became the Force’s first female combat helicopter pilot.

“It is a privilege for me to be winged as the first female fighter pilot in the Nigerian Air Force,” Sanni said after being decorated.

Sanni said at the time she had always wanted to be a fighter pilot, and “I was just lucky to be chosen.”

“It was also my choice. It was what I wanted to do. And I felt that everyone is not supposed to fold their arms and watch what is happening in our country.

“Everyone could always play their part. So, I did not think there was any reason for me to think that it is not possible for me to actually fly the jet because there was no female that ever flew the jet. I believe I could achieve it and I did,” she said.

She then went on to advise younger girls to “never say no to opportunities.”

“They should always strive to be the best and put in their efforts. They should never look at anything that seems to want to overpower or overshadow them. For me, you can always attempt things and if they do not work out well; fine. But at every point in time, you just need to put in your best.”

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Hotel groups Hilton and Marriot announce African expansion plans

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3 months ago

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June 21, 2025

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U.S. hotel chains Hilton and Marriott have announced African expansion drives to tap into the continent’s rapid tourism growth.

Rising business and leisure travel on the continent has made it increasingly attractive for multinational companies and Hilton said on Wednesday that it plans to more than triple its African portfolio to more than 160 hotels.

The company plans to enter Angola, Ghana and Benin for the first time while returning to Madagascar and Tanzania, its statement said without providing a specific time horizon for the expansion plans.

Marriott expects to add 50 properties by 2027, it said on Wednesday. Those will include entry into five new countries: Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Mauritania.

The group’s existing African portfolio encompasses nearly 150 properties and 26,000 rooms across 20 countries and 22 brands.

Airlines have also increased their African capacity.

Emirates now offers 161 weekly flights across Africa, recently adding daily services to Entebbe and Addis Ababa. United Airlines launched a direct Washington-Dakar route in May and Delta will begin a seasonal daily flight to Accra in December.

International arrivals to the continent rose 9% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, the United Nations World Tourism Organization says, 16% above the same period of pre-pandemic 2019.

That momentum is translating into economic impact. Tourism accounts for between 3% and 7% of gross domestic product in countries such as Kenya, Morocco and South Africa, and up to 15% in tourism-heavy economies such as Namibia, World Bank and national statistics show.

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