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Why The West African Oil Boom Ended So Abruptly

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Global oil production is slowly recovering towards pre-Covid-19 levels, but in West Africa the pandemic is set to leave lasting effects. This important region for sweet crude oil production faces numerous challenges as it strives to heal from the pandemic, including underinvestment, a lack of infill drilling at mature fields, and infrastructure that is either aging or threatened, a Rystad Energy analysis showed.

Sweet crude is the preferred oil grade to make jet fuel – the worst-hit segment as oil demand plunged last year. West African crude oil production dropped to 3.71 million barrels per day (bpd) last year from 4.12 million bpd in 2019, and is set to decline further to 3.39 million bpd this year. While we expect output to tick back up in 2022 and 2023 as jet fuel demand returns, production is set to fall below 3 million bpd already from 2025 unless heavyweights Nigeria and Angola can stage a strong comeback and shake off the dismal growth trends of the past decade.

West Africa’s oil production was not destined to follow this current grim projection before Covid-19 hit – in fact, the region was in line for more investment and activity. Last year’s low oil prices and the unstable market conditions that have continued into 2021 changed the outlook, however, as major operators decided to practice capital discipline and limit their investment exposure in regions including West Africa.

As a result, Rystad Energy has reduced its forecast for West African crude oil output by 600,000 bpd for 2021 and by 650,000 bpd for 2026, compared with our pre-Covid-19 projections.

“The structural upstream obstacles that West Africa faces are realities that are not going away in the short term. Even if jet fuel makes a spectacular recovery and demand for light and medium sweet crude grades returns, Nigeria and Angola, as well as other neighbors in structural upstream decline, will not be in a position to supply the market,” says Nishant Bhushan, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.

The region’s decline in 2021 is driven by its two biggest oil producers, Nigeria and Angola, which together are estimated to have lost 440,000 bpd versus the pre-Covid-19 forecast. We also estimate that crude oil production has dropped significantly in countries such as Congo, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, which together produced between 250,000 bpd and 300,000 bpd in 2010. Equatorial Guinea has seen a 60% reduction in oil production and Gabon nearly 35% in the past 11 years.

Crude oil production from West African countries was expected to pick up pace in tandem with their Middle Eastern counterparts as the OPEC+ group opened its supply taps. But even as OPEC+ production caps have gradually eased, Nigeria and Angola have not been able to ramp back up to their pre-shut-in production levels.

Crude production is not the only thing that’s been hit in the past couple of years. Since the start of 2020, we have also seen that the overall crude production capacity in Nigeria and Angola has taken a major blow. This is due to a number of reasons, including rapid declines at mature fields due to a lack of infill drilling, postponement of final investment decisions that were originally planned for 2020 and 2021, a lack of investment in oil and pipeline infrastructure which leads to frequent production shut-ins (prevalent in Nigeria), and civil unrest caused by militia groups.

West Africa has never had much unused capacity – most countries have produced at maximum capacity even as that capacity was gradually declining. When OPEC+ unveiled its massive 9.8 million bpd cut program in May 2020, the region had an overall oil production capacity of 4.2 million bpd. We estimate this has dropped by almost 420,000 bpd to around 3.8 million bpd by the end of 2021, and will keep shrinking to 3.5-3.6 million bpd by the end of next year.

Nigeria

Nigeria produces sweet crude grades ranging from light to heavy, but most of the volumes fall into medium to light grades. We expect the output of all sweet crude grades in Nigeria will decrease on the back of declining production from mature fields. The major drop in crude oil production is in grades like Bonga, Egina, and Qua IBoe, which are estimated to fall collectively by 180,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd by 2026 from 2021. Other crude grades, like Forcados, Bonny Light, Escravos, and Erha, are estimated to remain little changed, while some growth will be seen in crude grades like Amenam, Brass River, and Jonas Creek.

The decline in Nigeria’s crude oil production in recent years looks more structural as the country has failed to attract new investments in its oil and gas industry, be it in exploration, greenfield developments, or brownfield expansions. In the short term, we estimate Nigeria’s crude oil production will rise to about 1.55 million bpd in 2022 and 1.58 million bpd in 2023, with some new marginal field developments adding 30,000-35,000 bpd in 2022 and another 35,000-40,000 bpd in 2023. At the same time, some fields currently in the ramp-up phase are estimated to add 65,000-70,000 bpd in 2022, but only 10,000-15,000 bpd in 2023. After 2023, we estimate Nigeria’s output will continue to slide due to a lack of significant new discoveries, slipping to as low as 1.25 million bpd by 2026.

Angola

Like Nigeria, Angola’s decline in crude oil production is also structural, and production has been plummeting since 2015 – from 1.74 million bpd in 2015 to almost 1.11 million bpd in 2021. This output slump is the direct result of a lack of new investments in exploration and a failure by operators to halt the production decline at mature oil fields. New upstream projects are estimated to add 40,000-45,000 bpd this year and another 80,000-90,000 bpd in 2022, but this will not be enough to halt the downward spiral that will reduce Angola’s crude oil production to between 750,000 bpd and 800,000 bpd by 2026.

Angola mostly produces sweet crude, and we expect production of all the major sweet crude grades to slide in the coming years. We see overall sweet to regular crude grade output slumping by almost 300,000 bpd from 2021 to 2026 – a drop of about 30%. Major crude grades such as Nemba, Dalia, Mostarda, Gindungo, Girassol, and Kissanje are estimated to cumulatively decline by 280,000-300,000 bpd in 2026 from 2021. Some smaller crude grades like Sangos, Saturno, Cabinda, and Plutonio are estimated to remain at similar levels or inch up by 15,000-20,000 bpd combined.

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Africa

NBA pick Khaman Maluach Hoping to ‘Change the Narrative’ About Africa

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Immediately after getting drafted, Maluach was asked: “So many people, when they think about Africa, think about strife, think about war, think about not so great things about the continent, let alone South Sudan. How much of a responsibility do you think you have in changing perceptions of what people think Africa is in terms of thinking more about the resources, thinking about the people of Africa and South Sudan, specifically?”

Maluach’s native country, South Sudan, is undergoing a humanitarian crisis. His family fled the country to a suburb of Kampala, Uganda, in search of safety and opportunity during the South Sudan crisis. He now hopes to change the narrative about the region by highlighting its good parts on the world stage.

“I think about showing them the good parts of Africa,” Maluach said at the press conference after he was drafted. “I’m thinking about showing them the great places in Africa, like Kigali, whether it’s Senegal, whether it’s the safaris in Africa, and showing them the cultures we have and the people we have, which is different from the stuff they see on TV. I just want to change the narrative, the narrative of our people and how they see my continent.”

Maluach was born in Rumbek, once an important city in South Sudan that was ravaged by the country’s civil war. The 7’2″ center’s road to success was far from easy. The nearest basketball court to his house was nearly an hour’s walk away and usually packed. Moreover, he played his first game in Crocs, not basketball shoes. But his dedication was enough to catch the eye of local coaches Wal Deng and Aketch Garang.

Through the effort that he put in, Maluach made it to the NBA Academy Africa in Saly, Senegal, then to the Duke Blue Devils, and now the Suns. He hopes the moment inspires kids on the continent.

“Living in Africa, I had the whole continent on my back. Giving hope to young kids,” he said after the Suns selected him No. 10 overall.

Maluach considers basketball a gift God gave him, and hopes to finish off his NBA career as a Hall of Famer.

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Nigeria’s first female fighter pilot Kafayat Sanni excels in Ghana

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After making history as Nigeria’s first female fighter pilot, Flt. Lt. Kafayat Sanni has emerged as the Best Allied Student and won the Best Assistant Commandant Paper award at the Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College, Accra, according to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).

In a statement released on Saturday and cited by NAN, the Director of Public Relations and Information of the Nigerian Air Force, Air Commodore Ehimen Ejodame, said the awards were presented on Friday during the College graduation ceremony which had in attendance top military personnel and dignitaries from across Africa.

Ejodame recalled how Sanni first made the news in 2019 after being decorated as the Nigerian Air Force’s first female fighter pilot following her pilot training in the U.S.

“Since then, she has flown the Alpha Jet as well as undertaken training sorties on the Super Mushshak as a prolific instructor pilot, producing and mentoring younger pilots for the NAF,” Ejodame said.

“Her outstanding performance at GAFCSC not only symbolises personal excellence and resilience but also underscores Nigeria’s growing leadership in regional defence and commitment to gender inclusion in the armed forces.

“This remarkable achievement further reflects the Nigerian Air Force’s strategic investment in human capital development under the visionary leadership of the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Hasan Abubakar,” he said.

In 2017, Sanni emerged as the overall best pilot at the Nigerian Air Force’s 401 training school before she moved to the United States to train at the U.S. Aviation Leadership program.

Upon completion, Sanni returned to Nigeria, where she, alongside 12 new fighter pilots, was decorated.

As Sanni became the first female fighter pilot in the 55-year history of the Nigerian Air Force, her colleague, Tolulope Arotile, also became the Force’s first female combat helicopter pilot.

“It is a privilege for me to be winged as the first female fighter pilot in the Nigerian Air Force,” Sanni said after being decorated.

Sanni said at the time she had always wanted to be a fighter pilot, and “I was just lucky to be chosen.”

“It was also my choice. It was what I wanted to do. And I felt that everyone is not supposed to fold their arms and watch what is happening in our country.

“Everyone could always play their part. So, I did not think there was any reason for me to think that it is not possible for me to actually fly the jet because there was no female that ever flew the jet. I believe I could achieve it and I did,” she said.

She then went on to advise younger girls to “never say no to opportunities.”

“They should always strive to be the best and put in their efforts. They should never look at anything that seems to want to overpower or overshadow them. For me, you can always attempt things and if they do not work out well; fine. But at every point in time, you just need to put in your best.”

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Hotel groups Hilton and Marriot announce African expansion plans

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U.S. hotel chains Hilton and Marriott have announced African expansion drives to tap into the continent’s rapid tourism growth.

Rising business and leisure travel on the continent has made it increasingly attractive for multinational companies and Hilton said on Wednesday that it plans to more than triple its African portfolio to more than 160 hotels.

The company plans to enter Angola, Ghana and Benin for the first time while returning to Madagascar and Tanzania, its statement said without providing a specific time horizon for the expansion plans.

Marriott expects to add 50 properties by 2027, it said on Wednesday. Those will include entry into five new countries: Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Mauritania.

The group’s existing African portfolio encompasses nearly 150 properties and 26,000 rooms across 20 countries and 22 brands.

Airlines have also increased their African capacity.

Emirates now offers 161 weekly flights across Africa, recently adding daily services to Entebbe and Addis Ababa. United Airlines launched a direct Washington-Dakar route in May and Delta will begin a seasonal daily flight to Accra in December.

International arrivals to the continent rose 9% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, the United Nations World Tourism Organization says, 16% above the same period of pre-pandemic 2019.

That momentum is translating into economic impact. Tourism accounts for between 3% and 7% of gross domestic product in countries such as Kenya, Morocco and South Africa, and up to 15% in tourism-heavy economies such as Namibia, World Bank and national statistics show.

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