Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Trump led Harris 48%-47% among likely voters in a Times/Siena poll taken Sept. 3-6, equal to the former president’s one-point advantage six weeks ago—marking one of Trump’s first leads by a major pollster since Fox News found him up 50%-49% in early August (the Times/Siena survey had a margin of error of 2.8 points).
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll, and Harris led Trump by two points in a Sept. 1-3 Economist/YouGov survey, consistent with results from a week earlier (she led Trump by three points in an Aug. 17-20 survey and two points in an Aug. 11-13 poll by the Economist and YouGov).
Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).
Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters from Aug. 23-27, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).
The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
A handful of other surveys showed Harris’ lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National Convention: She led Trump by just one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll (compared to a tie shortly after the Republican National Convention, when Biden remained in the race).
Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded last week in Chicago.
Surveys have broadly shown a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ July entrance into the race: In the leadup to the DNC, Harris had a 51%-48% edge among likely voters according to CBS and YouGov.
