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Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Race: Now That Tinubu Is Here…
n what was completely unexpected to many, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu emerged the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC from the party’s Convention without appearing to break sweat.
Congratulations to him for employing every trick in his arsenal as an old fox to corner a ticket many didn’t see coming.
Whether he is truly the kind of president Nigeria needs at this perilous time in our history will be very critically analysed in the coming months.
Until then, let’s look at things dispassionately. We now have three major candidates in HE Peter Obi of Labour Party, LP, HE Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and HE Ahmed Tinubu of APC. Believe me, I am not trying to undermine the chances of NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and APGA’s Prof Peter Umeadi.
Just permit me to concentrate on the earlier trio based on my mindset at this very moment.
Make no mistake about it, if the Presidential election is held coming Saturday, APC will retain power. They are the ruling party and they have all government institutions in place to roll over all opposition. However, that is if President Muhammadu Buhari doesn’t throw his incumbency weight behind PDP’s Atiku, as being widely speculated.
Under a free-and-fair election, PDP will come second. This is because they’re not just the main opposition with appropriate reach, they were also the former ruling party. Their structures, though thoroughly shaken after seven severe years, are still formidable enough to push Labour Party to third place.
HE Peter Obi and LP will come third if this election is held as being speculated in this write-up. Labour Party is yet to harness the millions of supporters of the former governor of Anambra State into a discernible electoral force that can displace the two major challengers in APC and PDP.
But all these can change in eight months if…
First, let nobody kid himself that Asiwaju Tinubu is an easy meal. From the little I’ve witnessed, he’s the most organised politician alive in this country today. He can play smooth and rough, more rough than smooth any way. His propaganda machinery is second to none in Africa. He owns major media houses. Those he doesn’t own, he easily buys over once the issue is electioneering. This is how he effectively dismantled PDP while ushering in Buhari in 2015.
But Tinubu’s behind-the-scene arms are rumoured to be even far more devastating. Grapevine has it he’s a master in creating chaos, however deadly, to discredit his opponents and use his media weight to make the artificial diversion stick. Those who claim to know say that Jagaban is capable of anything while some further add this is even talking lightly.
Moreover, Tinubu enjoys the tremendous goodwill nurtured over the years by giving birth to and positioning political godsons all over important political institutions in Nigeria. They say that whenever he tells them to jump, they only respond, “how high?” The manner he cornered the APC ticket from a very complex pool attests to this.
Nonetheless, the former two-term governor of Lagos State has his party’s poor performance in office to worry about. Nigeria came to her knees in all spheres of positive development under the seven years of APC leadership. From the dollar hitting over N600 exchange rate to every community in the country being under siege of all manner of AK 47 wielding criminals, Tinubu will need to base his propaganda houses in heaven to stand any chance of pulling the wool over the eyes of Nigerians a third time. The APC, under campaign by all four visible opposition parties, will lose whatever leadership appeal(if any) they still have at the moment. Let’s see what Jagaban and his kingdom of propagandists present in the days ahead, interesting days ahead.
For the PDP, they have in Atiku another super heavy weight. For all the positives Tinubu exhales,, the former vice president is not far behind, if behind at all. Money, affluence, experience, tact…Atiku has them. He also enjoys tremendous goodwill built over the years from his influential office as a smart customs officer through the eight years he served as a very influential vice president. His own political godsons are equally all over the place. How he managed to curtail the ragging bull called Nyesom Wike to wrestle home the party’s ticket is a reminder that wine gets better with age.
However, his burden will also be his party, the PDP. They stood a very big chance when they had Obi in their fold. Nigerians know their history of impudence and looting that paved way for APC’s coming seven years ago. Majority of Nigerians don’t trust them to have truly repented. If some voting Nigerians were in doubt, the party itself cancelling zoning, which was hitherto enshrined in their modus operandi, erased such doubts. That was the biggest manner to betray trust.
As if such heavy shot on the leg was not enough the party blocked the chances of Obi, the one individual that would have erased doubts and drawn voters appeal towards the party had they been reasonable enough to grant such exemplary aspirant the party’s ticket. Such callousness threw their hitherto assured chances of regaining power out of the window. I don’t see the magic they will perform under eight months to turn around majority of Nigerians who appear to have had enough of APC and PDP.
Will Peter Obi and Labour Party capitalise on the evident rejection of the two biggest parties to coast home?